Jim Rogers on China

by: Davy Bui November 15, 2008

Davy Bui

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I am a big fan of Jim Rogers and his previous book, Hot Commodities, is a must-read in my estimation. This more recent effort, however, falls short of the mark set by the aforementioned book.

A Bull In China is a reinforcement of the bullish China position that Rogers has espoused for over a decade now. On Bloomberg or CNBC, viewers often see his brief “1 billion Chinese coming into the middle class” blurb. With this book, Rogers covers various economic areas in more detail. Topics include energy, agriculture, infrastructure, tourism, hospitality, healthcare, real estate and education among others. The author does a nice job of sprinkling in empirical data to support his bullishness in certain areas (for instance, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan consume 7x, 11x and 16x more dairy consumption than China, respectively). Rogers also helpfully points out possible problem areas, like real estate where a small apartment in Beijing goes for US$110,000 while the average annual salary is US$6,000.

Despite the helpful surveys and neat facts, figures and histories, I felt like a kid eating cotton candy and wanting more. Having already accepted the likelihood of strong Chinese economic growth for much of the 21st century, now may be a good time to think about buying into China as their markets have dived along with everyone else’s. A Bull In China may nominally add some more background to the China thesis but the reader is left to his or her own devices in terms of researching actual investments.

In the end, readers may be better served saving some time and skipping to the end, where Rogers states that the currency may be the safest way to play the China story.

RATING: 6 of 10

Highlights

Clear, concise writing style makes for quick reading.
Good introduction for those unfamiliar with the China story.
Despite Rogers’ tendency for fast quips during media appearances, on paper he tends to provide more facts and figures to support his arguments.
Provides a wide survey of different industries with a short listing of stocks for each industry.

Weak Points

While providing some background information on specific areas for investment, the short listing of stocks and lack of suggestions basically leaves the reader little closer to implementing a China investing strategy than before reading the book.
Non-essential.

Ed. note: The book was originally published in 2007 and is being reissued in paperback on Dec. 30, 2008.

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This article has 28 comments:

Nov 11 12:04 AM
I agree at some point that bull for china , but i beleive giving view for years on years is not good sign of any economist, Even if china is bullish they will not buy anything beyond their price limit or without the need also.... i beleive china will grow in Stock as well as commodity from JAn-2009 only in first quarter next year after that it will again go down,... reason is export slowdown because of u.s less demand for chinese product and most imp is PETRONET which give biggest contribution to china GDP is expected to slowdown for first quarter ....i think now china will think about the Inflation to ease for shorter term.....so bulls are there but the company of BEARSssss
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Nov 15 08:30 AM
Be careful with Rogers' suggestions. His recomendations are usually not very specific and one never sees his whole portfolio. He is extremely wealthy and it is impossible to know how he weights the investment. Furthermore his time horizon is long. He can afford to be very early and can weather a lot of volatility.

I enjoy reading his perspectives. He is very insightful and is delightfully controversial. And I love his bow ties!

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Nov 15 09:03 AM
NO COMENT
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Nov 15 09:05 AM
World's greatest market China fell by the most. This means tread with care although China has great potential.
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Nov 15 10:14 AM
On Nov 15 08:30 AM jepittman wrote:

> Be careful with Rogers' suggestions. His recomendations are usually
> not very specific and one never sees his whole portfolio. He is extremely
> wealthy and it is impossible to know how he weights the investment.
> Furthermore his time horizon is long. He can afford to be very early
> and can weather a lot of volatility.
>
> I enjoy reading his perspectives. He is very insightful and is delightfully
> controversial. And I love his bow ties!

Great Points! I've read 3 of Rogers' books and enjoyed all of them, but you're right, they cannot be used as "how to" books for ones own portfolio.

Truth be told, after reading Hot Commodities, I started investing in some commodity-based ETFs. While I still think it makes sense to have some commodities in a portfolio, that portion is hurting worse than my equity portion.
>
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Nov 15 10:37 AM
I am big fun of Jim Rogers by myself. But if he talks about China or commodities - sry fellows - but he has indices on those markets and funds & structurated produucts behind him.
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Nov 15 10:43 AM
OK. I read the book, quite soon afther it was published.. Great book, better than just a sellin pitch. if you followed those investment ideas - have you made a buck at least? No of course. I'm never. Thouse stock ideas could have relative values vs Western stocks, but... If you need an independent source about Asia, better look for Dr. Marc Faber - because he is sceptical... he said half year ago - ok, i'm bearish about USD as well as everybody - it seems that contrarian move is to be long in USD.
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Nov 15 12:41 PM
You may disagree and bash Roger's ideas, but why not keep your mean-spirited and bigoted prejudices out of the picture. It saddens me that you look at the man who is a self-made millionaire; he truly loves China and has bought an apartment there. Sends his kids to learn Chinese; and you stand pontificating that Rogers knows nothing about China merely because he is a white man.
I was born in China and am also white. In fact, I'm more Chinese than most Chinese-Americans. So, don't judge the man by the color of his skin; if you must attack---then attack his business acumen and ideas.

On Nov 15 10:22 AM raising4daughters wrote:

>
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Nov 15 03:25 PM
Jim Rogers... I find his book pure entertainment...nothin... but!
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Nov 15 03:31 PM
borisbear:

Indeed, the rah rah rah sis boom bah we're number one flag waving nationalistic and racial stuff gets old fast. Though it is often difficult to ignore confronting them is useless.

Sit back, relax and watch them tear America apart. Its the best thing all around.
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Nov 15 04:49 PM
for all the "poor me because i'm a white man" types, get over it. if there is any race and gender that's earned it's criticism it's the white male. get a thicker skin.

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Nov 15 05:39 PM
You know its unfortunate this blog is degenerating into a name calling contest. Why not confine things to the subject? Its a good one and is worthy of discussion. Just ignore the trash posts and keep it on the subject. Its lots more fun and interesting.
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Nov 16 12:59 AM
Rogers is a Alabamian dolt on his way out of this world along with his friend George. Just looking at the cover makes me sick, "the world's greatest market", please! China is what it is because the U.S. sent over trillions of dollars in exchange for trillions of pounds of cheaply manufactured product. I guess Rogers thinks its the greatest market because you can buy an 8 year old slave or a 17 yr old bride with a few hundred dollars in any given city in China or Asia for that matter. These old pervs in Asia are so delusional!! They dare not mention the grave human rights abuses they caustically deny exist. He's selling a product, nothing more.
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Nov 16 04:10 AM
rogers seems over rated to me. at a speech in korea recently he said "it looks like the market MAY be putting in a bottom. I DON'T KNOW if it's the bottom".

wow- a kindergartner could babble like that.
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Nov 16 04:15 AM
don't call them 'african americans' until they start using the phrase 'european americans".
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Nov 16 06:19 AM
Emerging markets show the largest growth in a bull market but they also have a tendency to contract drastically in a slowdown.

With the way global stock markets are linked together , this is an aspect which we have to be aware when investing in BRIC. There is no such thing as decoupling, if the US falters, so does the world.

China is facing unprecedented economic problems after enjoying years of double digit growth. A lot of businesses are caught in the credit squeeze and low consumption. Most are set to close down, leaving hundreds of thousands unemployed.

This recession will not stop China's progress in its tracks but in the short term, "bullish in China" is a dangerous term.
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Nov 16 06:40 AM
Obama is the President Elect. How Dark his skin is is irrelevant. What is relevant is his selection of Economic Advisors and those that will be closest to him when he takes over.

So Far, he has chosen and is considering more white people than I believe McCain would have.

Besides, isn't Obama predominantly white from a racial standpoint? I don't know, I am asking?
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Nov 16 07:46 AM
I don't trust communist countries. I barely trust capitalistic ones. But I don't think you can believe a thing those commies say
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Nov 16 08:08 AM
Don't doubt Mr. Rogers long term! He was warning of a speculative bubble in China, and hoped the government would deflate it , which they did by raising rates. He has never been wrong=long term. good luck
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Nov 16 12:24 PM
rogers isn't a wasp, he's irish, a separate race entirely. "white" is not a race
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Nov 16 01:44 PM
67,000 factories just closed and millions of Chinese unemployed. For instance a toy factory closed overnight and 2000 employess unemployed, that makes one whole village penniless. We have serious problems! thecomingdepression.bl...
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Nov 16 02:00 PM
Instead of spouting western media feeds, go to the People's Daily Online Homepage.

The Liberal propaganda machine at home VS The Chinese Media Hype. The two paint diametrically opposed pictures. Given my total distrust of what the Media pushes here, I'll go with the Chinese version. They are acting while we are reacting.

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Nov 16 02:20 PM
Just visited your posted site, thecoming etc., what a load of misinformation. Millions of people were displaced; very true, The Snowstorm of the Century, followed by The Earthquake of the Century, 60-80,000 dead. Both in the first 6 months of the year, 67,000 plants closed! Those not damaged or totally destroyed closed because of the lack of power to run them, or the lack of roads to get to them.

Both were Natural Disasters having nothing to do with Chinese economic policies.

Thousands of businesses closed, millions without power!
Texas just a few months ago, Oh woe, the Great Depression is coming to Texas, the hurricanes came and left. Power has been restored, people are rebuilding in the middle of the The Great Depression in Texas.

Tirade finished.
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Nov 16 07:04 PM
Paultaut, I am not quite sure you even read about the massive layoffs in the US. Are you located on another planet? Have you heard that GM will be going down for the count? Have you read that BUSH is declaring that we may be going into a deep depression? Are y0u aware that RON PAUL stated we will be heading into a depression? Are you concerned the dollar will be heading down 90%? Are you aware of the NATIONAL DEBT? Will you be paying for that with the your soon to be 0 wages? Please enlighten us with your wisdom!! thecomingdepression.bl...
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Nov 17 02:20 AM
I commented strictly on your post, I followed the link you furnished.

Your handle is "thecomingdepress... Your link goes to a newspaper article covering events in China during the first half of 2008 from which you quoted: 67,000 factories JUST closed and millions of Chinese unemployed. The keyword is JUST as in last week.

What you said was an outright falsehood. You did not elaborate but let the readers draw their own conclusions. I responded, everyone else just ignored you.

Ron Paul, the libertarian Republican congressman from Texas, know him well. He has a following of dedicated believers who favor the idea that whats good for the individual should be good for the State. 300 million individuals who believe that what is good for them is good for everyone else.

Bush did not say/declare/etc. that the economy was heading into a depression. GM may, at worst declare Chapter 11. Been to a Circuit City recently?, they are operating in Chapter 11. Ron Paul says whatever is necessary to stay in the Media, maybe he wants to run for president again.

The dollar is down 97% since its inception, what else is new. I'm retired, YOU are paying for my Wages/Health Care. So don't lose your job.

National Debt, nah no worries. You said it yourself, with the Dollar, which is currently at annual highs BTW, going down another 90% we will be paying 10 cents on a 100 cents of Debt, we have a lot of room to issue more debt.

This is only some enlightenment, I don't want to tax you.
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Nov 17 06:22 PM
Jim Rogers says that the best way to profit from China is to buy commodities.

jimrogers-investments....
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Nov 18 12:28 AM
Although I really love China and the Chinese people--whom I prefer for friendship/company well over loud, arrogant Americans--Jim Rogers is wrong! The prosperity of China now or in the future is an illusion. China is perhaps good for a bubble, to be arranged by the same slippery Ph.D. con artists who engineered America's financial debacle. And if you notice, Mr. Rogers is first in line to condemn that disgraceful exploitation, but yet he was a big part of making it happen--he was and is a real estate, forex and commodities speculator.

China has no water! China will soon have the oldest population in the world, to continue trending much older! China's psychopathic ruling oligarchy is so corrupt, they teach the Russians lessons! China has no democracy, human rights, private property protection, or rule of law! One of the largest industries in the country, managed by the PLA, is counterfeiting and pirating, and they can't even enforce domestic copyright or patent law! China's environment has been degraded beyond imagination! Much of China's economy is based on low end, labor intensive, foreign invested capacity intended for export! China's civil engineered infrastructure is of such low quality it will collapse in 5-10 years! China is an avowed atheist state that has produced not one technological or scientific advance of note for 2000 years! (credit Confucionism) I'm afraid China is destined to follow American down the sewer drain--neither place has anywhere else to go.
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Nov 18 06:05 AM
Strangewalk:

Rah rah rah sis boom bah. We're Americans! By golly if we're not gonna make it then for damn sure we ain't gonna let them "yellow hoards" make it either! Commie sumbit**es anywho!

On Nov 18 12:28 AM Strangewalk wrote:

> Although I really love China and the Chinese people--whom I prefer
> for friendship/company well over loud, arrogant Americans--Jim Rogers
> is wrong! The prosperity of China now or in the future is an illusion.
> China is perhaps good for a bubble, to be arranged by the same slippery
> Ph.D. con artists who engineered America's financial debacle. And
> if you notice, Mr. Rogers is first in line to condemn that disgraceful
> exploitation, but yet he was a big part of making it happen--he was
> and is a real estate, forex and commodities speculator.
>
> China has no water! China will soon have the oldest population in
> the world, to continue trending much older! China's psychopathic
> ruling oligarchy is so corrupt, they teach the Russians lessons!
> China has no democracy, human rights, private property protection,
> or rule of law! One of the largest industries in the country, managed
> by the PLA, is counterfeiting and pirating, and they can't even enforce
> domestic copyright or patent law! China's environment has been degraded
> beyond imagination! Much of China's economy is based on low end,
> labor intensive, foreign invested capacity intended for export! China's
> civil engineered infrastructure is of such low quality it will collapse
> in 5-10 years! China is an avowed atheist state that has produced
> not one technological or scientific advance of note for 2000 years!
> (credit Confucionism) I'm afraid China is destined to follow American
> down the sewer drain--neither place has anywhere else to go.
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