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Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

by: David Fry May 02, 2008 | about stocks: DBA / DBB / DBC / EEM / EFA / EWZ / FXI / GLD / IFN / ILF / MOO / RSX / SLX / UDN / USO / UUP / XLE    
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David Fry

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<< Return to page 1 - The Dollar 'Returns'

Also much discussed yesterday was that Uncle Buck might rally since the Fed wasn’t going to cut to say 1%. It’s almost too funny to contemplate the logic but the tape is the tape.



















































A look at where we are currently in the overbought/oversold conditions follows.










That should do it for this week with the daily commentaries. Remember, until I return from this long trip there will be no podcasts. I’m heading to Boston today and will be giving a talk in Cambridge. If you’d like to attend, email me.

Again, let me repeat, I’m so glad to be a technician that is systematic and disciplined. If I invested emotionally in these market conditions I’d have lost my shirt since I don’t find anything to like. But, Da Boyz on Wall Street are playing with a big stack of chips and have a firm grip on the tape right now. Even a crummy employment report won’t slow them down since they’ll spin that to “old news”. It rankles me every time I hear some commentator wax bullish about how inflation is contained. But that’s the message and they’re in charge.

Have a great weekend.

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains positions in XLE, IYR, MOO and ILF.

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This article has 4 comments:

  •  
    May 02 12:20 PM
    When trying to determine the optimum value of the dollar on the world stage, the following is what all Americans should know about Europe. They do not believe in lowering the price of a good, and profit by selling more at a lower margin (the Euro mindset is related to the sort of zero-sum thinking that pervades anti-capitalists thought here). Euro-thinking leads them to try to get utmost profit from every single unit they sell, as there are only so many units that they intend to sell, that can be sold. The idea of increasing the popularity of an item by lowering the price—thereby increasing its value—is anathema: that would only mean hiring and training more employees and accepting some business risk. In other words, Euro-thinking is much like that among the members of the oil cartel, except that Europeans, if at all possible, do not want to buy anything from you, and do not ever want a bill from you for everything you do that benefits them around the world. These simple facts of life are why dollar-Euro exchange rates are meaningless.
    Reply
  •  
    May 02 01:51 PM
    What are the DB inverse and leveraged etf for DBA and DBC? Can't seem to find the symbols.

    Thanks.
    Reply
  •  
    May 03 02:10 PM
    DBA's are: AGA, DAG, ADZ and AGF

    DBC's are: DEE)The DB Commodity Double Long ETN (NYSE: DYY)The DB Commodity Short ETN (NYSE: DDP)The DB Commodity Long ETN (NYSE: DPU)
    Reply
  •  
    May 03 11:05 PM
    I think the European mindset is due to the fact they have been around longer than we (US) have. they have limited land, population (they have been fooled already by Muslim immigration) and they value craftmanship. So they go for high quality, lower volumn. They are the opposite end of the spectrum of China.
    For the US, we depend more on China to keep inflation in check. I regret the loss of American job and think this may be our destruction but if we had not imported low price goods from China, Pakistan, Mexico, etc. what would be the value of the dollar now, probably half.
    I think DBC is good to buy as it drifts downward for a short time.
    Reply
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