Alcoa's (AA) quarterly report after the close today kicks off the second quarter earnings season.  Below we highlight the percentage of US stocks that have beaten earnings estimates on a quarterly basis over the last ten years.  As shown, "beat" rates in the last two reporting periods were the lowest they've been since the '01/'02 bear market. 

We'll be watching this indicator closely in the coming weeks to see how companies are reporting versus estimates that have already been lowered significantly.  If "beat" rates can at least remain in the high 50s, it could go a long way in helping this market hold onto support levels throughout earnings season.

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