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Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

by: David Fry August 19, 2008 | about stocks: CME / DBA / DBB / DBC / EEM / EFA / EWZ / FXI / GLD / IFN / ILF / MOO / SLX / USO / XLE    
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David Fry

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I love the lead image and use it often with crummy Mondays like yesterday. [By the way the artist's name is Thomas Lorimer since I usually get asked that when I post it.]

Now we'll see if we get the proverbial 'Turnaround Tuesday'. Bad news from financials was not shrugged off yesterday by bulls since supportive declines in commodities and the continued dollar rally was missing from the picture.

Volume was summertime light which is seasonally prevalent on Mondays and Fridays. Let's see what happens.

Have a pleasant day.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in IWM, QQQQ, QLD, XLV, RXL, XLP, UGE, IEF, TLT, UUP, DRR, FXE, FXA, FXC, FXB, FXY, DBC, DEE, GLD, DZZ, EFA, EFU, EEM, EEV, ILF and FXI.

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This article has 7 comments:

  •  
    Aug 19 06:20 AM
    David - Thanks for putting this together. I keep thinking that if I look at your charts long enough, I will begin to understand them. No matter. I do at least glean some things about the overall direction of the market.
    Reply
  •  
    Aug 19 07:44 AM
    This Frankfurt guy is posting all over the boards about how the market is going to crash, DJIA 9000 by December. Maybe he's right, or maybe he's hoping to get enough exposure to cause it (fat chance, buddy). Personally, I don't care if it crashes or rallies, I just want it to do SOMETHING other than this trading range crap.
    Reply
  •  
    Aug 19 07:58 AM
    Frankfurt's also posting all kinds of anti-semitic diatribes. You have to take the bad with the worse I guess.
    Reply
  •  
    Aug 19 08:57 AM
    Yesterday was simply another outburst of the mass hysteria.
    Any problems that the FRE and the FNM may have , have been discussed for months.Both agencies have been addressing the market concerns.They will continue to provide liquidity to the mortgage markets as originally defined by the Congress.
    Time for concern was at least two years ago ,and I have expressed those concerns then-now it is a matter of a bit more time.
    Commodity prices will continue the downward spiral as the evidence of the global deceleration become increasingly pronounced.
    The decline in the commodity prices (fuelled by the record speculation not the final demand),will allow the FED to continue(accelerate?) with more accomodative monetary policy.
    The U.S economy/marketsare consolidating .Even the questionable housing market is receiving an investment focus from some "mega funds".
    It is the ECB that is behind the curve with its high rates policy ignoring the signs of a major deceleration in Europe which is heading for recession.This will enhance the flows into dollar denominated assets.
    The events in Georgia which show that being too close to Russia(geographically) may not be good for your health will further increase demand for the dollar assets(flight to quality).The ultimate beneficiaries of these inflows will be housing sector and the stock market(two assets with the most relative value).
    The dollar spike will continue,the stock will move sharply higher ,the real estate market will stabilize shortly and the home prices should be higher by the early 2009(10% higher mean aaverage price).In the meantime the volatily and the paranoia willcontinue.
    Reply
  •  
    Aug 19 09:08 AM
    Somehow, I did not see postings by "the Frankfurt guy." Where to find his postings?
    Reply
  •  
    Aug 19 11:15 AM
    Thanks again David, always good stuff.
    Reply
  •  
    Aug 19 02:50 PM
    Frankfurt, SA took you out because of your bigoted anti-semetic comments, not because you think the DOW is going to plunge.

    There are plenty of people on here who think the DOW is going to crash. The difference is they don't post racist blather on what is supposed to be a financial site.

    If you want to spew your narrow-minded views on race and religion, there are plenty of KKK, white-power, or whatever boards for you to post on.

    This isn't Seeking Hitler, it's Seeking Alpha. Keep the comments to financial matters and the mods will leave you alone.

    ~X~
    Reply
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