There seem to be two clear trends:
An increasing % of PCs will have 3G radios, either with internal modules or external dongles.
A small number of PCs now have integral WiMAX and there are also dongles emerging. This will also increase, although it's certainly a lagging trend at present.
We know that vendors like Ericsson, Qualcomm, Huawei and peers are continuing to be aggressive on both 3G module and dongle pricing, as are mobile operators.
And based on past history, we can be fairly confident that Intel (INTC) is going to price its combined WiFi/WiMAX modules at a level to encourage uptake versus plain WiFi, especially when bundled with its processors. When Intel first launched Centrino in 2003, the extra cost of WiFi was $20 above the standalone processor price. Its initial WiMAX+WiFi modules are $24 more than standalone (802.11n) WiFi. WiMAX dongles will probably fall rapidly in cost too.
In other words, it's seems quite possible that we'll see PCs with WiFi, WiMAX, HSPA and (with Qualcomm Gobi) possibly EVDO as well.
At present, 3G and WiMAX operate in different bands - WiMAX at 2.5GHz (or occasionally 2.3GHz or 3.5GHz), with 3G at 850/900/1900/2100MHz.
At some point, we'll also see 2.5GHz bands for LTE and HSPA, and possibly also other mixed "technology neutral" bands thanks to various ongoing regulatory efforts by the likes of Ofcom and CEPT. But for now, I think we can be safe that we won't get dual radios in the same band.
What's really opaque to me are a few issues:
- Will 2.5GHz TDD WiMAX and 2.1GHz FDD 3G interfere significantly if both radios are on simultaneously? (Possible with 2.4GHz WiFi and Bluetooth too).
- Are there any connection managers that can handle all of these, or will such "dual WWAN" PCs end up with multiple bits of software? Early reports suggest the current software experience on Xohm is a bit clunky.
- Are there any technical or commercial reasons (apart from outright cost) to stop OEMs putting both WiFi/WiMAX and 3G modules in the same notebook? Does it need more complex antennas?
- What happens if you have an embedded-3G notebook with a WiMAX dongle, or vice versa?
- Is it possible to create a combined HSPA/WiFi module which *doesn't* need a SIM card inserted for authenticating the WiFi?
(Before anyone else mentions it, yes I know that having four radios on simultaneously is a great way to kill the battery, irrespective of anything else).
If people are prepared to pay the extra $50-100 for a 3G module today, and if it's going to fall to $30 or more in a couple of years' time then presumably a fair proportion will then be willing to pay an extra $15 (say) to have WiMAX too, especially if they expect to travel to places where there are competing networks.
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This article has 3 comments:
- Stricklybiz
- 1 Comment
Oct 15 06:53 AM- DeanB
- 21 Comments
My Website
Oct 15 08:14 AMFair point - although that's possibly because I spend most of my time looking at the mobile industry, for whom pretty much all the computers of interest are notebooks. Certainly I hear a lot of folk in the wireless business talking about PCs as a synonym for laptop or notebook.
Another case of the tech industry using the same words in different ways, in different contexts.... (you should see the range of possible uses of the word "application"...
As it happens, it wouldn't surprise me to see more desktops getting used with mobile modules or external modems as well.
Dean
- Xorg
- 5 Comments
Oct 15 03:45 PMWhen Intel puts out WiMAX/WiFi chipsets out at nearly the same price as WiFi only, the game will be over. The laptop makers just need to drop in the chipset. With 3G, they have a lot of extra overhead to work with the carriers.
WiMAX will also likely make it to a variety of devices since its controlled by the IEEE. The consumer electronics industry is already tied to IEEE. LTE will probably not make it into a wide array of devices because it is controlled by the telcom industry. Just ask Apple how fun that has been.