iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG)
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HYG Forum Topics
- All Comments on HYG
- General Discussion on HYG
- Why Buy High Yield Bond Funds? [view article]
- Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
- A Look at a Market That Punishes Risk [view article]
- Corporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
- High Yield Spreads Near Record Highs [view article]
- Bond Wars Update: International and Junk [view article]
- High Yield Spreads Hit Highest Levels Since 2002 [view article]
- The Real Secret to Fractional Banking [view article]
- El-Erian's Recommended Allocation vs. Harvard, Yale [view article]
- Global Investing: Get Past the Noise [view article]
- Report from the Bond War Frontlines [view article]
- The Yield Curve and Investor Sentiment (Part III) [view article]
loading ...Recent HYG Articles
- Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets
- A Look at a Market That Punishes Risk
- High Yield Spreads Near Record Highs
- Corporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky
- Bond Wars Update: International and Junk
- High Yield Spreads Hit Highest Levels Since 2002
- Why Buy High Yield Bond Funds?
- Mortgage Rates and Default Risk Charts
- Global Investing: Get Past the Noise
- Report from the Bond War Frontlines
- Full List of Articles »
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Why Buy High Yield Bond Funds? [view article]
A good article on junk bonds if only to alert investors that during junk bond bear markets the dividends are reduced. My only objection is the default rates on junk bonds are projected to hit record levels in 2009. As an aside, this is now officially the worst junk bond bear market of all time. I never thought I would see anything like 89-90 but this one takes the cake. I am drooling over the prospects of the next next bull market in junk bonds hoping it will be similar to 1991, but it may be a very, very long wait. ReplyFear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
Based on PE, is the S&P 500 cheap, or merely back to historically "average" PE?based on Schiller's data, since 1881, statistics on the S&P 500 PE:
average, 1/1871-8/2008: 16.3
median, 1/1871-8/2008: 15.7
level as of 10/7/08, with S&P 500 near 996: 16.3
note: Schiller uses the trailing ten-year average earnings when he calculates the PE ratio
the series:
month PE
1881.01 18.47
1881.02 18.15
1881.03 18.27
1881.04 17.95
1881.05 18.87
1881.06 19.03
1881.07 18.12
1881.08 17.29
1881.09 16.72
1881.10 16.26
1881.11 16.48
1881.12 15.96
1882.01 15.68
1882.02 15.15
1882.03 15.09
1882.04 14.92
1882.05 14.57
1882.06 14.33
1882.07 15.24
1882.08 15.53
1882.09 16.08
1882.10 15.76
1882.11 15.19
1882.12 15.38
1883.01 15.27
1883.02 14.76
1883.03 15.05
1883.04 15.48
1883.05 15.34
1883.06 15.90
1883.07 15.95
1883.08 15.20
1883.09 15.49
1883.10 15.05
1883.11 15.41
1883.12 14.90
1884.01 14.43
1884.02 14.81
1884.03 14.74
1884.04 14.35
1884.05 13.47
1884.06 12.91
1884.07 13.04
1884.08 13.86
1884.09 13.57
1884.10 13.27
1884.11 13.30
1884.12 13.43
1885.01 13.13
1885.02 13.38
1885.03 13.73
1885.04 13.55
1885.05 13.71
1885.06 13.98
1885.07 14.33
1885.08 15.13
1885.09 15.12
1885.10 15.99
1885.11 16.82
1885.12 16.30
1886.01 16.69
1886.02 17.01
1886.03 16.84
1886.04 16.80
1886.05 16.86
1886.06 17.83
1886.07 17.85
1886.08 17.72
1886.09 18.15
1886.10 18.56
1886.11 18.97
1886.12 18.19
1887.01 17.51
1887.02 17.13
1887.03 17.47
1887.04 17.82
1887.05 18.08
1887.06 17.71
1887.07 17.43
1887.08 16.74
1887.09 16.68
1887.10 15.88
1887.11 15.95
1887.12 15.46
1888.01 15.36
1888.02 15.42
1888.03 14.81
1888.04 15.02
1888.05 15.39
1888.06 15.08
1888.07 15.28
1888.08 15.60
1888.09 15.99
1888.10 15.72
1888.11 15.22
1888.12 14.95
1889.01 15.80
1889.02 16.19
1889.03 16.07
1889.04 16.05
1889.05 16.92
1889.06 17.22
1889.07 16.89
1889.08 17.13
1889.09 17.35
1889.10 17.05
1889.11 16.91
1889.12 16.61
1890.01 17.22
1890.02 17.03
1890.03 16.90
1890.04 17.26
1890.05 17.79
1890.06 17.68
1890.07 17.59
1890.08 16.60
1890.09 16.17
1890.10 15.48
1890.11 14.75
1890.12 14.44
1891.01 15.43
1891.02 15.48
1891.03 15.05
1891.04 15.41
1891.05 15.57
1891.06 15.66
1891.07 15.62
1891.08 16.16
1891.09 17.71
1891.10 17.72
1891.11 17.67
1891.12 18.21
1892.01 19.02
1892.02 19.04
1892.03 19.74
1892.04 19.94
1892.05 19.91
1892.06 19.77
1892.07 19.21
1892.08 19.20
1892.09 18.69
1892.10 19.04
1892.11 18.46
1892.12 18.01
1893.01 17.66
1893.02 17.13
1893.03 16.90
1893.04 17.10
1893.05 15.78
1893.06 15.42
1893.07 14.35
1893.08 14.59
1893.09 15.01
1893.10 15.27
1893.11 15.94
1893.12 15.61
1894.01 15.74
1894.02 16.20
1894.03 17.19
1894.04 17.43
1894.05 16.81
1894.06 16.61
1894.07 16.29
1894.08 16.46
1894.09 16.52
1894.10 16.50
1894.11 16.54
1894.12 16.67
1895.01 16.52
1895.02 16.33
1895.03 16.36
1895.04 16.39
1895.05 17.08
1895.06 17.21
1895.07 17.55
1895.08 18.07
1895.09 18.20
1895.10 17.94
1895.11 17.34
1895.12 16.55
1896.01 16.58
1896.02 17.52
1896.03 17.23
1896.04 17.64
1896.05 17.83
1896.06 17.78
1896.07 16.64
1896.08 15.70
1896.09 16.54
1896.10 16.44
1896.11 17.09
1896.12 16.50
1897.01 17.03
1897.02 16.89
1897.03 16.96
1897.04 16.70
1897.05 17.05
1897.06 17.85
1897.07 18.65
1897.08 19.01
1897.09 19.37
1897.10 19.03
1897.11 18.36
1897.12 18.75
1898.01 19.25
1898.02 18.92
1898.03 18.04
1898.04 17.71
1898.05 17.60
1898.06 19.54
1898.07 19.86
1898.08 20.54
1898.09 20.44
1898.10 19.95
1898.11 20.53
1898.12 21.40
1899.01 22.93
1899.02 23.05
1899.03 23.28
1899.04 23.15
1899.05 22.09
1899.06 21.21
1899.07 21.56
1899.08 21.73
1899.09 20.59
1899.10 20.15
1899.11 20.20
1899.12 18.51
1900.01 18.67
1900.02 18.70
1900.03 18.78
1900.04 18.94
1900.05 18.40
1900.06 17.99
1900.07 17.69
1900.08 18.07
1900.09 17.34
1900.10 18.10
1900.11 19.42
1900.12 20.74
1901.01 20.98
1901.02 21.68
1901.03 22.35
1901.04 24.41
1901.05 23.06
1901.06 25.24
1901.07 23.14
1901.08 23.08
1901.09 22.59
1901.10 22.25
1901.11 22.38
1901.12 21.68
1902.01 22.34
1902.02 22.46
1902.03 22.41
1902.04 22.82
1902.05 22.43
1902.06 21.96
1902.07 22.39
1902.08 23.17
1902.09 22.86
1902.10 20.60
1902.11 20.41
1902.12 19.63
1903.01 20.32
1903.02 20.11
1903.03 19.88
1903.04 18.98
1903.05 18.95
1903.06 17.82
1903.07 16.92
1903.08 16.30
1903.09 15.65
1903.10 15.25
1903.11 15.41
1903.12 16.04
1904.01 15.86
1904.02 15.02
1904.03 15.08
1904.04 15.57
1904.05 15.53
1904.06 15.47
1904.07 16.04
1904.08 16.30
1904.09 16.74
1904.10 17.63
1904.11 18.08
1904.12 18.16
1905.01 18.46
1905.02 19.17
1905.03 19.83
1905.04 19.48
1905.05 18.63
1905.06 18.74
1905.07 19.21
1905.08 19.57
1905.09 19.74
1905.10 19.90
1905.11 19.44
1905.12 19.58
1906.01 20.13
1906.02 19.87
1906.03 19.26
1906.04 18.88
1906.05 18.05
1906.06 18.17
1906.07 18.20
1906.08 18.97
1906.09 19.20
1906.10 18.10
1906.11 18.14
1906.12 17.66
1907.01 17.22
1907.02 16.22
1907.03 14.69
1907.04 14.67
1907.05 13.79
1907.06 13.14
1907.07 13.59
1907.08 12.51
1907.09 12.33
1907.10 10.83
1907.11 10.59
1907.12 11.33
1908.01 11.90
1908.02 11.55
1908.03 11.98
1908.04 12.45
1908.05 13.08
1908.06 13.05
1908.07 13.35
1908.08 13.88
1908.09 13.70
1908.10 13.69
1908.11 14.44
1908.12 14.58
1909.01 14.76
1909.02 14.17
1909.03 14.34
1909.04 14.65
1909.05 14.95
1909.06 15.04
1909.07 15.23
1909.08 15.42
1909.09 15.25
1909.10 14.99
1909.11 14.75
1909.12 14.75
1910.01 14.55
1910.02 14.00
1910.03 14.05
1910.04 13.56
1910.05 13.57
1910.06 13.02
1910.07 12.34
1910.08 12.75
1910.09 12.94
1910.10 13.92
1910.11 14.16
1910.12 13.74
1911.01 14.05
1911.02 14.72
1911.03 14.37
1911.04 14.75
1911.05 15.05
1911.06 15.33
1911.07 15.08
1911.08 13.90
1911.09 13.00
1911.10 13.07
1911.11 13.73
1911.12 13.93
1912.01 13.79
1912.02 13.53
1912.03 13.64
1912.04 13.65
1912.05 13.65
1912.06 13.79
1912.07 13.80
1912.08 13.98
1912.09 13.93
1912.10 13.91
1912.11 13.75
1912.12 13.39
1913.01 13.15
1913.02 12.68
1913.03 12.44
1913.04 12.43
1913.05 12.22
1913.06 11.49
1913.07 11.53
1913.08 11.85
1913.09 11.84
1913.10 11.47
1913.11 11.07
1913.12 11.17
1914.01 11.64
1914.02 11.91
1914.03 11.69
1914.04 11.52
1914.05 11.48
1914.06 11.43
1914.07 10.69
1914.08 10.49
1914.09 10.50
1914.10 10.61
1914.11 10.52
1914.12 10.17
1915.01 10.36
1915.02 10.33
1915.03 10.71
1915.04 11.40
1915.05 11.03
1915.06 11.15
1915.07 11.11
1915.08 11.58
1915.09 12.01
1915.10 12.55
1915.11 12.86
1915.12 12.88
1916.01 12.54
1916.02 12.35
1916.03 12.18
1916.04 11.91
1916.05 12.03
1916.06 12.00
1916.07 11.79
1916.08 11.73
1916.09 11.94
1916.10 12.05
1916.11 12.05
1916.12 11.41
1917.01 10.99
1917.02 10.06
1917.03 10.33
1917.04 9.64
1917.05 9.14
1917.06 9.15
1917.07 9.00
1917.08 8.57
1917.09 7.95
1917.10 7.39
1917.11 6.75
1917.12 6.41
1918.01 6.64
1918.02 6.78
1918.03 6.69
1918.04 6.52
1918.05 6.58
1918.06 6.50
1918.07 6.37
1918.08 6.30
1918.09 6.15
1918.10 6.29
1918.11 6.33
1918.12 6.13
1919.01 6.10
1919.02 6.24
1919.03 6.36
1919.04 6.46
1919.05 6.83
1919.06 7.02
1919.07 7.05
1919.08 6.48
1919.09 6.56
1919.10 6.79
1919.11 6.47
1919.12 6.16
1920.01 5.99
1920.02 5.46
1920.03 5.80
1920.04 5.60
1920.05 5.19
1920.06 5.04
1920.07 5.08
1920.08 5.02
1920.09 5.30
1920.10 5.35
1920.11 5.13
1920.12 4.78
1921.01 5.12
1921.02 5.27
1921.03 5.19
1921.04 5.30
1921.05 5.61
1921.06 5.22
1921.07 5.20
1921.08 5.16
1921.09 5.38
1921.10 5.48
1921.11 5.84
1921.12 6.11
1922.01 6.29
1922.02 6.46
1922.03 6.82
1922.04 7.27
1922.05 7.59
1922.06 7.56
1922.07 7.60
1922.08 8.02
1922.09 8.27
1922.10 8.43
1922.11 8.00
1922.12 7.96
1923.01 8.15
1923.02 8.53
1923.03 8.70
1923.04 8.37
1923.05 8.00
1923.06 7.67
1923.07 7.35
1923.08 7.44
1923.09 7.46
1923.10 7.32
1923.11 7.55
1923.12 7.81
1924.01 8.07
1924.02 8.16
1924.03 8.06
1924.04 7.92
1924.05 7.90
1924.06 8.05
1924.07 8.38
1924.08 8.72
1924.09 8.58
1924.10 8.42
1924.11 8.89
1924.12 9.31
1925.01 9.69
1925.02 9.83
1925.03 9.52
1925.04 9.48
1925.05 9.73
1925.06 9.80
1925.07 9.96
1925.08 10.11
1925.09 10.36
1925.10 10.72
1925.11 10.89
1925.12 11.15
1926.01 11.34
1926.02 11.39
1926.03 10.71
1926.04 10.40
1926.05 10.58
1926.06 11.20
1926.07 11.87
1926.08 12.49
1926.09 12.69
1926.10 12.43
1926.11 12.62
1926.12 13.01
1927.01 13.19
1927.02 13.63
1927.03 14.03
1927.04 14.49
1927.05 15.00
1927.06 15.12
1927.07 15.82
1927.08 16.86
1927.09 17.82
1927.10 17.54
1927.11 18.13
1927.12 18.65
1928.01 18.81
1928.02 18.87
1928.03 19.94
1928.04 21.26
1928.05 21.83
1928.06 20.91
1928.07 21.08
1928.08 21.76
1928.09 23.00
1928.10 23.58
1928.11 25.12
1928.12 25.30
1929.01 27.08
1929.02 27.13
1929.03 27.68
1929.04 27.57
1929.05 27.70
1929.06 27.94
1929.07 29.93
1929.08 31.48
1929.09 32.56
1929.10 28.96
1929.11 21.17
1929.12 22.01
1930.01 22.31
1930.02 23.70
1930.03 24.59
1930.04 25.84
1930.05 24.31
1930.06 21.87
1930.07 21.55
1930.08 21.30
1930.09 21.07
1930.10 18.21
1930.11 16.94
1930.12 16.06
1931.01 16.71
1931.02 18.16
1931.03 18.58
1931.04 16.87
1931.05 15.40
1931.06 15.06
1931.07 15.52
1931.08 15.01
1931.09 12.82
1931.10 11.15
1931.11 11.42
1931.12 9.31
1932.01 9.31
1932.02 9.34
1932.03 9.41
1932.04 7.19
1932.05 6.39
1932.06 5.57
1932.07 5.84
1932.08 8.83
1932.09 9.76
1932.10 8.48
1932.11 8.46
1932.12 8.26
1933.01 8.73
1933.02 7.83
1933.03 7.87
1933.04 8.72
1933.05 11.25
1933.06 13.10
1933.07 13.75
1933.08 13.00
1933.09 12.92
1933.10 11.70
1933.11 12.01
1933.12 12.28
1934.01 13.03
1934.02 13.93
1934.03 13.25
1934.04 13.52
1934.05 12.18
1934.06 12.29
1934.07 11.74
1934.08 11.32
1934.09 10.91
1934.10 11.11
1934.11 11.45
1934.12 11.64
1935.01 11.50
1935.02 11.09
1935.03 10.40
1935.04 11.10
1935.05 11.99
1935.06 12.54
1935.07 13.20
1935.08 14.11
1935.09 14.42
1935.10 14.83
1935.11 16.13
1935.12 16.16
1936.01 17.09
1936.02 18.10
1936.03 18.66
1936.04 18.72
1936.05 17.75
1936.06 18.39
1936.07 19.36
1936.08 19.62
1936.09 19.86
1936.10 20.91
1936.11 21.50
1936.12 21.13
1937.01 21.62
1937.02 22.24
1937.03 22.04
1937.04 20.56
1937.05 19.47
1937.06 18.71
1937.07 19.65
1937.08 19.81
1937.09 16.85
1937.10 14.36
1937.11 13.16
1937.12 13.01
1938.01 13.51
1938.02 13.26
1938.03 12.38
1938.04 11.79
1938.05 11.99
1938.06 12.29
1938.07 14.77
1938.08 14.90
1938.09 14.28
1938.10 16.06
1938.11 16.15
1938.12 15.76
1939.01 15.60
1939.02 15.66
1939.03 15.73
1939.04 13.92
1939.05 14.50
1939.06 14.83
1939.07 15.27
1939.08 15.12
1939.09 16.45
1939.10 16.82
1939.11 16.60
1939.12 16.28
1940.01 16.38
1940.02 16.22
1940.03 16.17
1940.04 16.37
1940.05 14.14
1940.06 12.84
1940.07 13.37
1940.08 13.65
1940.09 14.21
1940.10 14.33
1940.11 14.64
1940.12 13.91
1941.01 13.90
1941.02 13.00
1941.03 12.96
1941.04 12.43
1941.05 12.04
1941.06 12.16
1941.07 12.74
1941.08 12.46
1941.09 12.28
1941.10 11.58
1941.11 10.91
1941.12 10.09
1942.01 10.10
1942.02 9.68
1942.03 9.00
1942.04 8.54
1942.05 8.51
1942.06 8.91
1942.07 9.15
1942.08 9.01
1942.09 9.08
1942.10 9.60
1942.11 9.66
1942.12 9.62
1943.01 10.15
1943.02 10.71
1943.03 10.85
1943.04 11.04
1943.05 11.36
1943.06 11.52
1943.07 11.77
1943.08 11.21
1943.09 11.34
1943.10 11.19
1943.11 10.63
1943.12 10.74
1944.01 11.05
1944.02 10.95
1944.03 11.22
1944.04 10.94
1944.05 11.10
1944.06 11.53
1944.07 11.74
1944.08 11.54
1944.09 11.33
1944.10 11.58
1944.11 11.48
1944.12 11.64
1945.01 11.96
1945.02 12.34
1945.03 12.32
1945.04 12.63
1945.05 13.04
1945.06 13.13
1945.07 12.87
1945.08 12.92
1945.09 13.80
1945.10 14.37
1945.11 14.85
1945.12 15.02
1946.01 15.62
1946.02 15.76
1946.03 15.13
1946.04 16.04
1946.05 16.01
1946.06 15.77
1946.07 14.51
1946.08 13.98
1946.09 11.84
1946.10 11.39
1946.11 11.11
1946.12 11.37
1947.01 11.47
1947.02 11.95
1947.03 11.29
1947.04 10.90
1947.05 10.73
1947.06 11.08
1947.07 11.70
1947.08 11.34
1947.09 10.83
1947.10 11.13
1947.11 10.98
1947.12 10.68
1948.01 10.42
1948.02 10.00
1948.03 10.19
1948.04 10.78
1948.05 11.24
1948.06 11.58
1948.07 11.13
1948.08 10.72
1948.09 10.55
1948.10 10.83
1948.11 10.25
1948.12 10.16
1949.01 10.25
1949.02 9.87
1949.03 9.90
1949.04 9.78
1949.05 9.69
1949.06 9.07
1949.07 9.61
1949.08 9.85
1949.09 9.88
1949.10 10.17
1949.11 10.22
1949.12 10.53
1950.01 10.75
1950.02 10.91
1950.03 10.91
1950.04 11.18
1950.05 11.46
1950.06 11.55
1950.07 10.54
1950.08 11.04
1950.09 11.34
1950.10 11.66
1950.11 11.54
1950.12 11.31
1951.01 11.90
1951.02 12.14
1951.03 11.84
1951.04 11.95
1951.05 11.86
1951.06 11.62
1951.07 11.78
1951.08 12.26
1951.09 12.44
1951.10 12.31
1951.11 11.85
1951.12 12.15
1952.01 12.53
1952.02 12.36
1952.03 12.36
1952.04 12.24
1952.05 12.20
1952.06 12.45
1952.07 12.67
1952.08 12.68
1952.09 12.43
1952.10 12.13
1952.11 12.47
1952.12 12.93
1953.01 13.01
1953.02 12.86
1953.03 12.83
1953.04 12.16
1953.05 12.14
1953.06 11.62
1953.07 11.75
1953.08 11.72
1953.09 11.14
1953.10 11.39
1953.11 11.64
1953.12 11.75
1954.01 12.00
1954.02 12.22
1954.03 12.42
1954.04 12.91
1954.05 13.31
1954.06 13.36
1954.07 13.83
1954.08 14.04
1954.09 14.36
1954.10 14.62
1954.11 15.12
1954.12 15.79
1955.01 15.99
1955.02 16.44
1955.03 16.22
1955.04 16.69
1955.05 16.52
1955.06 17.37
1955.07 18.45
1955.08 18.22
1955.09 18.84
1955.10 17.77
1955.11 18.84
1955.12 18.94
1956.01 18.29
1956.02 18.27
1956.03 19.37
1956.04 19.37
1956.05 18.54
1956.06 18.16
1956.07 18.86
1956.08 18.67
1956.09 17.84
1956.10 17.42
1956.11 17.12
1956.12 17.20
1957.01 16.72
1957.02 15.84
1957.03 15.90
1957.04 16.12
1957.05 16.60
1957.06 16.73
1957.07 16.87
1957.08 15.87
1957.09 15.16
1957.10 14.15
1957.11 13.74
1957.12 13.67
1958.01 13.79
1958.02 13.78
1958.03 13.93
1958.04 13.91
1958.05 14.32
1958.06 14.64
1958.07 14.96
1958.08 15.54
1958.09 15.93
1958.10 16.56
1958.11 16.99
1958.12 17.36
1959.01 17.98
1959.02 17.76
1959.03 18.20
1959.04 18.43
1959.05 18.69
1959.06 18.45
1959.07 19.09
1959.08 18.96
1959.09 18.12
1959.10 18.02
1959.11 18.07
1959.12 18.62
1960.01 18.34
1960.02 17.55
1960.03 17.29
1960.04 17.43
1960.05 17.26
1960.06 17.82
1960.07 17.38
1960.08 17.58
1960.09 17.05
1960.10 16.61
1960.11 17.15
1960.12 17.56
1961.01 18.47
1961.02 19.23
1961.03 19.84
1961.04 20.38
1961.05 20.60
1961.06 20.33
1961.07 20.15
1961.08 20.94
1961.09 20.71
1961.10 20.92
1961.11 21.86
1961.12 22.04
1962.01 21.20
1962.02 21.45
1962.03 21.44
1962.04 20.66
1962.05 19.09
1962.06 16.83
1962.07 17.14
1962.08 17.57
1962.09 17.32
1962.10 16.74
1962.11 17.85
1962.12 18.59
1963.01 19.26
1963.02 19.47
1963.03 19.29
1963.04 20.15
1963.05 20.51
1963.06 20.38
1963.07 19.97
1963.08 20.47
1963.09 20.96
1963.10 20.89
1963.11 20.72
1963.12 21.04
1964.01 21.63
1964.02 21.83
1964.03 22.17
1964.04 22.42
1964.05 22.57
1964.06 22.30
1964.07 22.98
1964.08 22.65
1964.09 22.89
1964.10 23.21
1964.11 23.23
1964.12 22.75
1965.01 23.27
1965.02 23.37
1965.03 23.25
1965.04 23.42
1965.05 23.71
1965.06 22.39
1965.07 22.30
1965.08 22.67
1965.09 23.37
1965.10 23.78
1965.11 23.93
1965.12 23.69
1966.01 24.06
1966.02 23.70
1966.03 22.61
1966.04 23.11
1966.05 21.85
1966.06 21.56
1966.07 21.38
1966.08 19.91
1966.09 19.16
1966.10 18.83
1966.11 19.71
1966.12 19.74
1967.01 20.43
1967.02 21.07
1967.03 21.44
1967.04 21.69
1967.05 21.95
1967.06 21.55
1967.07 21.80
1967.08 22.03
1967.09 22.22
1967.10 22.07
1967.11 21.26
1967.12 21.75
1968.01 21.51
1968.02 20.42
1968.03 19.93
1968.04 21.28
1968.05 21.63
1968.06 22.00
1968.07 21.75
1968.08 21.14
1968.09 21.68
1968.10 22.00
1968.11 22.20
1968.12 22.28
1969.01 21.19
1969.02 20.90
1969.03 20.20
1969.04 20.43
1969.05 20.97
1969.06 19.71
1969.07 18.68
1969.08 18.43
1969.09 18.40
1969.10 18.45
1969.11 18.44
1969.12 17.33
1970.01 17.09
1970.02 16.37
1970.03 16.53
1970.04 15.87
1970.05 13.98
1970.06 13.80
1970.07 13.73
1970.08 14.10
1970.09 14.84
1970.10 15.06
1970.11 14.95
1970.12 15.87
1971.01 16.46
1971.02 17.03
1971.03 17.40
1971.04 17.92
1971.05 17.56
1971.06 17.08
1971.07 16.89
1971.08 16.52
1971.09 16.86
1971.10 16.43
1971.11 15.64
1971.12 16.60
1972.01 17.26
1972.02 17.46
1972.03 17.81
1972.04 17.92
1972.05 17.66
1972.06 17.64
1972.07 17.40
1972.08 17.94
1972.09 17.61
1972.10 17.53
1972.11 18.34
1972.12 18.65
1973.01 18.71
1973.02 17.89
1973.03 17.41
1973.04 16.94
1973.05 16.31
1973.06 15.81
1973.07 15.89
1973.08 15.28
1973.09 15.48
1973.10 15.91
1973.11 14.65
1973.12 13.49
1974.01 13.53
1974.02 12.96
1974.03 13.31
1974.04 12.55
1974.05 12.00
1974.06 11.89
1974.07 10.39
1974.08 9.82
1974.09 8.68
1974.10 8.74
1974.11 8.95
1974.12 8.29
1975.01 8.92
1975.02 9.76
1975.03 10.16
1975.04 10.23
1975.05 10.82
1975.06 11.01
1975.07 10.90
1975.08 10.09
1975.09 9.92
1975.10 10.33
1975.11 10.44
1975.12 10.25
1976.01 11.19
1976.02 11.59
1976.03 11.63
1976.04 11.69
1976.05 11.53
1976.06 11.54
1976.07 11.76
1976.08 11.60
1976.09 11.81
1976.10 11.35
1976.11 11.25
1976.12 11.60
1977.01 11.44
1977.02 11.01
1977.03 10.90
1977.04 10.64
1977.05 10.55
1977.06 10.53
1977.07 10.57
1977.08 10.27
1977.09 10.07
1977.10 9.77
1977.11 9.77
1977.12 9.68
1978.01 9.24
1978.02 9.05
1978.03 8.95
1978.04 9.26
1978.05 9.63
1978.06 9.55
1978.07 9.43
1978.08 10.02
1978.09 9.94
1978.10 9.53
1978.11 8.93
1978.12 9.01
1979.01 9.26
1979.02 9.00
1979.03 9.07
1979.04 9.13
1979.05 8.79
1979.06 8.85
1979.07 8.83
1979.08 9.13
1979.09 9.11
1979.10 8.68
1979.11 8.52
1979.12 8.75
1980.01 8.85
1980.02 9.05
1980.03 8.08
1980.04 7.84
1980.05 8.10
1980.06 8.51
1980.07 8.88
1980.08 9.07
1980.09 9.20
1980.10 9.36
1980.11 9.65
1980.12 9.39
1981.01 9.26
1981.02 8.83
1981.03 9.08
1981.04 9.09
1981.05 8.82
1981.06 8.77
1981.07 8.45
1981.08 8.40
1981.09 7.58
1981.10 7.65
1981.11 7.81
1981.12 7.83
1982.01 7.39
1982.02 7.18
1982.03 6.95
1982.04 7.26
1982.05 7.19
1982.06 6.69
1982.07 6.64
1982.08 6.64
1982.09 7.40
1982.10 8.00
1982.11 8.35
1982.12 8.47
1983.01 8.76
1983.02 8.91
1983.03 9.23
1983.04 9.53
1983.05 9.87
1983.06 10.00
1983.07 10.01
1983.08 9.73
1983.09 9.98
1983.10 10.00
1983.11 9.85
1983.12 9.82
1984.01 9.89
1984.02 9.32
1984.03 9.33
1984.04 9.31
1984.05 9.23
1984.06 9.01
1984.07 8.87
1984.08 9.62
1984.09 9.69
1984.10 9.60
1984.11 9.69
1984.12 9.60
1985.01 10.00
1985.02 10.49
1985.03 10.37
1985.04 10.40
1985.05 10.61
1985.06 10.81
1985.07 11.00
1985.08 10.74
1985.09 10.47
1985.10 10.55
1985.11 11.16
1985.12 11.69
1986.01 11.72
1986.02 12.39
1986.03 13.19
1986.04 13.55
1986.05 13.56
1986.06 13.89
1986.07 13.62
1986.08 13.89
1986.09 13.47
1986.10 13.43
1986.11 13.87
1986.12 14.09
1987.01 14.92
1987.02 15.82
1987.03 16.43
1987.04 16.20
1987.05 16.16
1987.06 16.83
1987.07 17.31
1987.08 18.33
1987.09 17.68
1987.10 15.53
1987.11 13.59
1987.12 13.39
1988.01 13.90
1988.02 14.30
1988.03 14.67
1988.04 14.43
1988.05 14.03
1988.06 14.77
1988.07 14.61
1988.08 14.24
1988.09 14.37
1988.10 14.81
1988.11 14.45
1988.12 14.70
1989.01 15.09
1989.02 15.47
1989.03 15.30
1989.04 15.69
1989.05 16.19
1989.06 16.64
1989.07 17.01
1989.08 17.73
1989.09 17.71
1989.10 17.64
1989.11 17.24
1989.12 17.65
1990.01 17.05
1990.02 16.51
1990.03 16.83
1990.04 16.81
1990.05 17.39
1990.06 17.82
1990.07 17.75
1990.08 16.17
1990.09 15.30
1990.10 14.82
1990.11 15.19
1990.12 15.85
1991.01 15.61
1991.02 17.35
1991.03 17.82
1991.04 18.16
1991.05 18.04
1991.06 18.02
1991.07 18.10
1991.08 18.51
1991.09 18.36
1991.10 18.35
1991.11 18.29
1991.12 18.44
1992.01 19.77
1992.02 19.58
1992.03 19.28
1992.04 19.30
1992.05 19.66
1992.06 19.32
1992.07 19.62
1992.08 19.72
1992.09 19.71
1992.10 19.37
1992.11 19.83
1992.12 20.45
1993.01 20.32
1993.02 20.55
1993.03 20.86
1993.04 20.46
1993.05 20.52
1993.06 20.61
1993.07 20.57
1993.08 20.81
1993.09 20.99
1993.10 21.11
1993.11 21.04
1993.12 21.17
1994.01 21.41
1994.02 21.26
1994.03 20.83
1994.04 20.06
1994.05 20.20
1994.06 20.29
1994.07 20.07
1994.08 20.54
1994.09 20.58
1994.10 20.40
1994.11 20.21
1994.12 19.91
1995.01 20.22
1995.02 20.80
1995.03 21.15
1995.04 21.64
1995.05 22.20
1995.06 22.72
1995.07 23.38
1995.08 23.28
1995.09 23.95
1995.10 23.93
1995.11 24.35
1995.12 25.03
1996.01 24.76
1996.02 25.98
1996.03 25.63
1996.04 25.43
1996.05 25.81
1996.06 25.97
1996.07 24.86
1996.08 25.41
1996.09 25.68
1996.10 26.48
1996.11 27.59
1996.12 27.72
1997.01 28.33
1997.02 29.27
1997.03 28.80
1997.04 27.59
1997.05 29.93
1997.06 31.26
1997.07 32.77
1997.08 32.59
1997.09 32.67
1997.10 32.90
1997.11 32.34
1997.12 33.03
1998.01 32.86
1998.02 34.71
1998.03 36.30
1998.04 37.28
1998.05 36.96
1998.06 36.80
1998.07 38.26
1998.08 35.42
1998.09 33.53
1998.10 33.77
1998.11 37.37
1998.12 38.82
1999.01 40.58
1999.02 40.40
1999.03 41.36
1999.04 42.71
1999.05 42.56
1999.06 42.18
1999.07 43.83
1999.08 41.93
1999.09 41.32
1999.10 40.55
1999.11 43.21
1999.12 44.20
2000.01 43.77
2000.02 42.19
2000.03 43.22
2000.04 43.53
2000.05 41.97
2000.06 42.78
2000.07 42.76
2000.08 42.87
2000.09 41.90
2000.10 39.37
2000.11 38.78
2000.12 37.28
2001.01 36.98
2001.02 35.84
2001.03 32.33
2001.04 32.17
2001.05 34.08
2001.06 33.07
2001.07 32.16
2001.08 31.40
2001.09 27.67
2001.10 28.58
2001.11 30.01
2001.12 30.50
2002.01 30.28
2002.02 29.09
2002.03 30.29
2002.04 29.01
2002.05 28.13
2002.06 26.39
2002.07 23.46
2002.08 23.59
2002.09 22.36
2002.10 21.95
2002.11 23.34
2002.12 23.10
2003.01 22.89
2003.02 21.21
2003.03 21.31
2003.04 22.42
2003.05 23.59
2003.06 24.83
2003.07 24.86
2003.08 24.64
2003.09 25.24
2003.10 25.68
2003.11 25.94
2003.12 26.63
2004.01 27.65
2004.02 27.65
2004.03 26.88
2004.04 26.90
2004.05 25.90
2004.06 26.40
2004.07 25.69
2004.08 25.17
2004.09 25.66
2004.10 25.41
2004.11 26.46
2004.12 27.14
2005.01 26.58
2005.02 26.74
2005.03 26.33
2005.04 25.40
2005.05 25.64
2005.06 26.06
2005.07 26.28
2005.08 26.10
2005.09 25.72
2005.10 24.87
2005.11 25.92
2005.12 26.43
2006.01 26.46
2006.02 26.24
2006.03 26.32
2006.04 26.14
2006.05 25.64
2006.06 24.74
2006.07 24.69
2006.08 25.04
2006.09 25.63
2006.10 26.53
2006.11 26.92
2006.12 27.27
2007.01 27.20
2007.02 27.31
2007.03 26.22
2007.04 26.97
2007.05 27.54
2007.06 27.41
2007.07 27.40
2007.08 26.14
2007.09 26.72
2007.10 27.31
2007.11 25.72
2007.12 25.95
2008.01 24.01
2008.02 23.49
2008.03 22.60
2008.04 23.35
2008.05 23.68
2008.06 22.38
2008.07 20.74
2008.08 20.89
2008.09 16.25
source:www.irrationalexuberan.../
Reply
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
Good article, at the bare minimum we are definitely past half way and possibly very near the end. It can't get a lot worse (unless the US needs an IMF bailout!)Unfortunately i'm 100% invested, so I don't have any choice but to go along for the ride!
I'm down 30% in US, 15% in pacific pesos (Aussie Dollars). The wife is not happy!
Reply
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
What is the source/methodology behind the “consensus operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 earnings” of $104? Is operating earnings the best figure to use? Is $104 a reasonable estimate?FYI:
Data available at Robert Schiller’s web-site shows approximately $60 in trailing actual earnings.
www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data...
Standard & Poors shows: $69 in actual trailing 4 qtr. (9/07-6/08) operating earnings, a $68 forecast for 2009 “top-down” operating earnings, and $104 for 2009 “bottoms-up” estimates.
www2.standardandpoors....
Given that actual earnings over the last 4-quarters are somewhere between $60 and $69, it seems to me that the $68 estimate is much more reasonable then the $104 estimate.
FYI, Schiller likes to use the trailing ten-year earnings when he calculates the S&P 500’s PE. Trailing ten-year S&P 500 earnings are near $60, putting the S&P 500 PE at ~ 16. This puts today’s PE near the average PE over the previous 130 years.
I highly suggest reading Schiller’s “Irrational exuberance”, and using the data found at:
www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data... Reply
llsouth.net
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
Bravely forging ahead!My long watched Watchlist stocks are at such bargain prices!!
Just buying smaller volumes & keeping cash to buy more if downdraft continues.
No gutts no glory I need some GLORY!!! Reply
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
Please just remember that if going long, you have decided on your exit strategy from the start. One that hopefully has some sophistication behind it that can constantly be adjusting to the stock's behavior and overall market conditions. One that can help you keep losses to a minimum but allow profits to accumulate. ALWAYS stay protected! ReplyAnonymous
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
I simply LOVE fear, panic & emotions. They create value and cause investors to make irrational decisions about their investments. As they bail out of their positions I'm more than happy to navigate the wreckage to see what I can find.Now, that's not to advocate that investors should pile into positions as soon as markets drop; everyone needs to do their own DD. But as extreme exuberance pushes the market upwards both fear & panic push it in the opposite direction.
As a long-term investor who focuses on dividends, cashflow and accumulating investments I can't help but rub my hands together at the opportunties that are just beginining to present themselves. Reply
Fear, Panic & Opportunity in the Markets [view article]
Yesterday was not "climactic" or "capitulation.&qu... The volume was too light, and the market came back during the day. If the volume had been horrific and the market was falling at closing (the 800 points or more), then you could call it capitulation. This market has not yet reached is "climax" on the down side. ReplyA Look at a Market That Punishes Risk [view article]
Same old, same old.The only remarkable thing is how wrong most of the prognosticators (might be) who repeated, ad nauseam, "commodity inflation and a much lower dollar."
We all need to remember that the majority can all be wrong and especially the people who predict the future with the most confidence.
The key thing is to point out fundamentals and various historical reactions to similar fundamentals and then admit that it isn't possible to predict with any degree of certainty which scenarios will play out.
Deflation has also occurred, all too often, in the past, accompanied with its well-known destructive effects.
Several signs of returning deflation have been consistently ignored by almost everyone: Falling housing prices, falling stock prices and a looming recession are the most obvious.
Consistent over consumption, combined with lack of savings, in the first world usually leads to a wave of reduced spending ("belt tightening") which would also be deflationary.
Reply
A Look at a Market That Punishes Risk [view article]
Yep, this market punishes risk. No two ways about it. It seems the streets have started bleeding. And the bleeding will get worse......But in terms of the junk bonds, with closed end funds trading at a 20% discount to NAV and yields of 15ish %, it seems that it might be worth scaling into a few of these dogs that everyone is throwing out. Same might be said for closed end, investment grade, muni bond funds with 6.5-7 tax free payouts.
I'm thinking here that even if these things collapse another 10 or 15 percent, if you scale in, and you're collecting the coupon as you go, you have a pretty good chance of beating 3month t-bills in a year. Of course, if you belive the world is coming to an end, well, then t-bills are probablly the best choice.
Reply
Corporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
you guys are both wacko's , LQD will be a good investment for savvy investors buying on the cheap ! Every class of bonds has out-performed gold since it peaked in the 70's at 800 an ounce . ReplyCorporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
I didn't say that owning gold or any other commodity is a bad thing, I'm just reminding you of what you know already: Nothing is certain except death and taxes :)Gold might someday be completely regulated by the government as it was in the past. In that sense, it is not safe.
But safety is a relative thing and one man's mattress is another man's unlocked door.
You might find it interesting to read William Jennings Bryan's Cross of Gold speech which you can find on the internet. Reply
High Yield Spreads Near Record Highs [view article]
It isn't just junk, it is finance and real estate paper of high qualities. Morgan Stanley notes can be found yielding up to 30%, and 20% in your choice of maturities and coupons etc. They just got a $9 billion infusion from the second largest bank in Japan and hae $25 billion in market cap ahead of even the preferred, but the notes are going begging at 20%. ReplyHigh Yield Spreads Near Record Highs [view article]
I think this is an ecellent time to go hi-yield. The spread rarely exceeds this level so taking a position now has lower downside than in other portions of this market cycle. With Congress causing us the taxpayer to pay for corporate jets, with no upside potential for us, we now have to increase our risk to compensate for the overall gross equity loss. Long term rates will be significantly lower in three to five years, as the true stupidity of our lawmakers comes out. ReplyCorporate Bonds: When Safe Asset Classes Become Risky [view article]
carey_jim, if you don't believe in gold, I can't imagine what you own. A lifetime supply of canned food? It doesn't keep that long. A gun? Me too. It might help me survive someday, but it mightn't be enough. Land? They can take it as surely as the right to short doomed banks. I have absolute faith that my gold will always be worth something. I can't say that about anything else. Reply