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Latest Comments251 Comments
How I'm Playing the Chinese Rate Cut Rally
If it makes you feel better my TSL losses are my worst in about a decade of investing :)
And I mean that in my personal account
I've had to do a ton of work to even begin to offset that dog.
I sold over $14 on the Obama election rally - pathetically it dropped 50% more from there... but as long as we have capital we can make up losses. I just was flabbergasted to see those ever go down so much
As for APWR its unfortunately been turned into a solar stock - if you watch the trading when solar stocks do well, so does APWR. Its nonsensical for a company that has yet to book 1 dollar of revenue from their wind business to be trading as an alternative energy stock but that is all US investors see it is; I guess the whole DG business (which is 100% of its business through this last Q) is a moot point.
When the market gets animal spirits going for a few weeks in a row, APWR can rally more broadly - until then it is like everything else - a trading vehicle. Valuation means zilch in this market. Evan a miserly 10 PE ratio would generate a year end target in low teens. Quite sad really.
FDIC Troubled Bank List Grows By 46% - Is Your Bank Safe?
FDIC Troubled Bank List Grows 46%
Not "to 46%"
That is a Seeking Alpha headline, not mine.
Reducing Coal Position As Hedge Funds Punish the Sector
I'm bullish here at these levels (well I was Thursday and Friday) some of these names are up 30% already. Also fertilizer. These will probably be trading vehicles for the better part of the next year and then mid 2009 forward I think the next sustained move (by that I mean multi month moves) as the rest of the world begins to rebound (America will still be struggling) and the market begins to anticipate it.
BTU results were stellar.
I think hedge funds will have 1 more round around December and then many will simply close up shop since it will take 2-3 years of profits to make up for this year, so their effect will be far less important after Jan 1.
Cutting Position in James River Coal, Assuming Failure at Resistance
A wacky market.
Why Don't Earnings Matter Anymore?
I wrote
I like to compare earnings versus growth rates. I use my estimate for the next 3 year growth rate, but what I used below is a 1 year growth rate. So while we hide under the bed about the death of the global economy (ex the USA) we see companies that should be slowing from 30,50,100% type of growth down to 20-30% over the coming years. Those are valued at forward PE ratios of 5.
Pulte, Gafisa: Hot Theories and Housing Stocks
This is a market about allocations to sector, not individual stock selection as "some" say.
Mindless Churn in Trendless Market
+1! :)
ShengdaTech: Smallcap Opportunity
I assumed triple this year's run rate, but it sounds like they meant triple 2007 levels. Thanks for the comment. I can live with $162M in extra sales which is effectively doubling the size of the company.
Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal
Understatement of the year :) Trina when it fell to upper 20s not only got zero analyst defense, Goldman Sachs actually came out and downgraded with a target to low 20s. Even after the secondary was priced and that headwind was out of the way - no real analyst defense. THis is what happens when you blindside analysts constantly.
That said, still own a sizeable batch on valuation alone and like Jack like SOL for valuation - even after last week's 30% run its still at forward PE of 14 instead of 11. LDK was also impressive this Q.
Don't forget STP reports Wed this week as well although they have been all over the map in each quarter vs analysts
EZCORP Is Down on Termination of Value Financial Deal
According to the reuters article (take it for what its worth) VFS was acting irrational and probably trying to squeeze out a higher price.
The only irrational thing I see is a company dropping nearly 20% on 1 cent lower EPS ;) I realize maybe its a bit of a slower growth trajectory without these stores but this is a highly fragmented industry and many more acquisition targets.
The market is simply all overreaction - more now than ever before.
Have We Reached the Turning Point?
What was the stock market looking forward to in October 2007 at all time highs?
Have We Reached the Turning Point?
I have about 25 stocks this quarter who have blown up on me, that would argue to the opposite
Massey Energy Posts Big Number But Big Charge Too
Oil needs to stabilize not just go up for a day or two. A 50% retracement of its 70 to 148ish run since August would take it to 110. So we'll see. I am thinking 100ish because sentiment drives oil and humans seem to love big round numbers. If you have a tin foil hat you might believe oil will bottom a week before the election (grin)
Coal is very different from crude; fertilizer is very different from crude. But in a world where hedge funds are the marginal decider of all stock prices, they might as well all be the same thing.
Does Visa's Beat Bode Well for MasterCard?
I am fine with the drop - hoping for $220s and if the market continues to erode might get $200 or better. Still 2 franchies in near monopoly and the global growth story is in inning 1. Many on the globe have never seen a credit card.
Thanks for your points, I understand where you are coming from but I am not sure if that list deserves a 20% type fo premium. But the market says so, and the market is right in the near term :)
Solar Stocks: Cutting Back on Three Names
Not so much. :)
FSLR 1 year ago 100 - now 300 (overvalued all the way?)
TSL 1 year 60 - now 30 (undervalued all the way?)
etc etc.
I await the day polysili is $125-$150 to see how the dynamics in the industry change.