Reinko
Loading...
Symbols:
Loading...
Symbols:
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Trading Center
- Free E-Newsletters
- About Seeking Alpha
- About Us
- Contact Us
- What's New
- Readers Feedback
- Advertise With Us
- Contributors
- Contribute an Article
- Feature Your Book
- Our Contributors
- Anonymous Contributions
- Dispute an Article?
- Legal
- Terms of Use
- Privacy
- Copyright
Latest Comments333 Comments
The More Things Change ...
But lets get serious:
The incestuous branch of US academic economists that gave their fiat for this mess will also control the new Obama presidency.
So David, you can have a long list of 'what to do first' things, but after my humble opinion the US academics need to be cleaned first from their rather outlandish ways of thinking.
When the US academic economists are cleaned from their incestual behavior, may be wisdom will trickle down...
By the way, I am against old currencies that are gold based.
I would like a labor standard and on top of that countries could have benefits like commodity resources (gold, silver, oil, natural gas, whatever what) inside their geographical boundaries.
Going back to gold, please David I expect better stuff from you!
In the meantime, from my side of the equation, all goes perfectly; I am only waiting for the 2010 US military budget...
Equity, The Blind Optimist
It is strange that bonds have a higher yield compared to stock yields because stocks carry a higher risk.
It is logical that inflation is the main culprit here; but what was the main cause of all that inflation during so many decades?
__________Begin intermezzo
To Bearfund: US economical theory is the problem, please concentrate on the real long term problems that gave rise to the present situation.
For example: House prices are hefty undervalued in the consumer price index, now the USA pays a costly price for that.
All these years in the housing boom, consumer inflation was measured too low because of the weird consumer inflation statistics the US government uses.
Now you folks pay the price for that...
Blame the US economists please!
__________End intermezzo.
Mostly US (but also European) economists that argue that a small and slight inflation is 'good' for the economy.
Those economists had one thing wrong; in the basis of their thinking they thought that deflation was the reason for the long time the depression lasted.
They interchanged cause and effect; deflation was an effect of the crisis, not a cause. Ok ok. it made the crisis longer but that is not a reason to fight deflation during normal times.
On the contrary, in consumer paradise 1 or 2% deflation is like the rain that makes sure in a decade you can spend also like you do today...
For me it is strange to observe all those batallions of US economists standing outside normal economical thinking for so long. I guess this is one of the damages when you become a world power; when you start thinking rubish there is nobody to ram you back into reality.
September Case-Shiller Housing Analysis
Only when the acceleration in price declines fades away, house declines are halfway.
It is very simple, in math this is known as a 'logistic curve', strangely enough no economist tells this simple to understand fact.
Remark: There can be valid reasons house price decline will not follow logistic decline, if for example strong inflation or deflation sets in things will be different.
Also when wages decline it will not be logistic but even worse.
Yet as a rule of thumb, we have to wait until year on year price declines stabilize and then we can say 'probably we are halfway now'.
Citigroup: Another Ad Hoc Bailout
And the fractional reserve banking is out of the window for some time now, see the next link from the FED AGGREGATE RESERVES OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS AND THE MONETARY BASE:
www.federalreserve.gov.../
In the third column (the 'non borrowed' column) you see the real reserves are negative...
Isn't it strange to name the real reserves the 'non borrowed' ones?
5-1/2 Ways to Make the Market Rally
In case that is wise, why not introduce the concept of negative interest rates? Instead of all these positive rates that push honest home owners into oblibion, negative rates are the answer!
That brings down the cost of living so people have the possibilty to pay off the loan...
The journalists here in the Netherlands lately suggested another way to let stock markets boom: Make it punishable by law to let stock values going down, one or two years in prison for those who sell too much will do the trick and it brings also home the 'ownership society' where lots of people have lots of stock of highly valued companies...
Extreme Anxiety in the Anxious Index
In the end 25% of their entire balances were funded by day to day borrowings in order to ensure the longer stuff.
They are all gone, these investment banks are all gone.
When you live by your borrowing capacity you will die from it, when you live on your reserves you can make it to a high age...
John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory
So fill in the date (17 Nov 1998) for yourself in the box at the right lower bottom of the Yahoo S&P chart...
John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory
finance.yahoo.com/echa...=^gspc;range=19981117,...
John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory
You can also argue that you can sell on the lows only to wait some time longer to buy stock back at far lower levels and wait for another low trigger in order to sell.
And after that waiting a long time to buy stuff back far more cheaply...
But living day to day we do not know if we are at a bottom... We do not have fancy 1929 charts, all we know stuff is declining.
Come on face the facts and abandon all this fancy technical analysis:
For the first time in history the S&P 500 is negative on a 10 year scale, it has never ever happened before that an investment in the S&P 500 was negative.
Beside being negative, you have a full fist of inflation in your face so in fact it is far worse than 'only being negative on a 10 year scale'.
I don't know what a full decade of the last inflation was but we can safely conlude that 100 US$ invested a decade ago in the S&P 500 is now below 70$... (in 1998 US$ of course).
Four Reasons Stock Market Hope Will Overcome Despair
You write, quote:
"This site is filled with market followers. When one is going down, they think it's never going to stop. When up, the opposite."
But on this website there were a long long time good looking females commenting upon the strength of the US dollar.
These chicks are gone but dollar strength is still there....
I would like the chicks back, where have they gone???
European Innovation Shows Us the Future of U.S. Financials
The mark to market rule is supposed to get some real value on the books.
The idea's as there is some 'temporary delayed' but true value to be found is utterly stupid just like the US house prices were...
The Autos and Mentality That Ruined Detroit
From the mid nineties the big three are complaining about the foreingers and they did nothing, just absolutely nothing to adept.
In this world the USA has plenty of so called 'economists' that always explain that the US economy is 'very adaptive'.
After my humble opinion the US economy is not very adaptive and we are only looking at some fatbag obese people doing their dairly routine; that is all we can say about the US industrial complex. (Although when it comes to weaponry stuff they still are rather good, but who wants to buy those weapons if you get a free 'maintainance team' with it?)
First Call of the Crisis: Peter Schiff Could Be Video of the Year
But serious: When I started studying the US financial system in the spring of 2004 I became very worried.
And via my website I even tried to get to the central banks of the developing nations telling them what to do.
Of course they did not do it, but that is their problem and not mine...
If they have a few hundred of thousands extra deaths, this is their problem and not mine.
It was a long way, this study of the US financial system. You have to learn a whole lot about how the system works, from M1, M2 and M3 money, the central bank to the way options are priced.
Latest result from my study:
This week I calculated the year on year debt growth of the US financial sector for as long as the Federal Reserve has records on this (I do this a lot longer for the last 8 to 10 years).
The result was:
Year on year debt grow was 13%.
That is far beyond profit growth, GDP growth and so on.
Conclusion: What has been reported as 'profits' over the last decades was in fact new debt...
Seldom a nation has been so illusive about her wealth!
Friday Market Preview: Was Dow 8,000 the Bottom?
The figures I have on this are not very reliable, but it was reported that our P/E ratio's were about 5.7 compared to DOW Jones of about 15.
In the previous market crash there were similar figures; our Amsterdam AEX declined about 70% from the top, the DOW only 35%.
There are various reasons for this:
1) Plunge Protection Team (if that exists for real, statistical evidence supports the hypothesis of such a weird team).
2) The large cap / small cap effect combined with the large stock market / small stock market effect. That means during declines small caps always got hit harder because people trust large caps more to survive compared to a small cap.
A similar effect is there for large stock markets compared to smaller stock markets; our stock market simply is rather small since we are only with 16 million folks.
Friday Market Preview: Was Dow 8,000 the Bottom?
Here in Holland even the main stream media said it had to be the Plunge Protection Team and that looks like a realistic hypothesis since in the USA P/E ratio's are about triple compared to the Amsterdam AEX.
These are only bottom fishers?
Please get real and follow the one and only measure for pricing stocks: The P/E ratio...