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Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know Newsby SA Editor Rachael Granby- Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought.
- Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only.
- Credit stays frozen. As frozen credit markets refuse to thaw, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds reaches new global records amid investor concerns the credit crisis will trigger corporate failures as companies struggle to finance their businesses. Interbank lending remains limited, and borrowing from the Fed's expanded discount window continued its trend of setting new highs every week, as the total daily average rose to $420.2B vs. $367.8B last week.
- Oil demand withers. The International Energy Agency warned Friday worldwide oil demand...
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- An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy
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Oil Price- Oil Below $75: Increased Chance of OPEC Production Cuts by Money Morning
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- Jim Cramer's Picks -SampleBetter Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)by SA Editor Rachael GranbyStocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.Bullish Calls:Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.Bearish Calls:Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."Email continues...
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend. - Stocks & Sectors -SampleSeeking Alpha - Stocks & SectorsInternet
- eBay: Q3 Looks Good but Q4 Guidance Disappoints by Greg Feirman
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India- Indian Economy Has Much to Cheer About by Equitymaster
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Japan- Sanyo Enters Thin-Film Market, Goes Up Against Sharp by Greentech Media
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Eastern Europe- Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole
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- Too Early To Buy Homebuilders ETF by Larry MacDonald
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- Two Global Infrastructure Investment Opportunities in ETFs by Investment U
New ETFs- First Trust Launches Infrastructure ETF with Global Reach by Index Universe
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US Market- An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy
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Housing & Real Estate- Too Early To Buy Homebuilders ETF by Larry MacDonald
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Latest Comments126 Comments
Petrohawk and Chesapeake Fly on Haynesville Shale News
I like CHK--the chairman is buying huge amounts of stock;, all USA sourced, so there is no terrorism premium; company owns vast acreage in all the major new NG finds, so not dependent upon one geographic area; and finally, NG is still cheap compared to oil, and is in growing demand.
I also am careful not to allow any one company (or industry) to become too large a part of my portfolio.
Oil: Time for Caution
Worldwide oil demand has nudged or even exceeded supply. That means prices rise, and keep rising, to squeeze out the marginal buyers.
At the moment, oil is subsidized in many countries where oil demand is growing far faster than in the USA (though with about 5% of population, for years we have consumed about 25% of the world's oil...now billions more want what we have). Therefore, even if we decrease our oil demand by 5 or 10%, that savings will soon be lost against a much faster growing world demand among the other 95% of the world's population.
Reducing oil to $100/barrel and below is on the horizon, and $50 or less, is just over the horizon. It is quite likely there will be much more demand destriction than most can visualize. Because:
As gasoline reaches $6, $8, and $10, worldwide demand destruction will grow rapidly as fuel consumes a larger and larger portion of incomes, resulting in tens of thousands of large and small businesses are elimated, and millions of jobs lost. That tipping-point (and severe recession/worse) is more likely than we like to think. We may well see $2 gasoline...and wish we hadn't.
Unfortunately, it will be about 10 years before new oil fields and new liquid fuels, or enough hybrids, are in place to add substantially to today's supply...if we can ever agree to start, and what needs to be done!
It is that simple...and that serious to your economic future (and sadly, that of your children and grandchildren). This goes FAR beyond the bankruptcy of car companies, airlines hotels/resorts, state and city governments. Gasoline is life to billions!...wars have been fought for less!
Expensive Commodities and the Stock Market
If OTOH, BO does not stop all wars...
Expensive Commodities and the Stock Market
If OTOH, BM does not stop all wars...
Listen to the Companies, Not the Government Reports
A close reading of this post (actually a waste of time) reveals that it is a collection of disconnected thoughts and attacks on analysts (at least as much as government). Overall, it does little to develop a central theme in a coherent manner.
WSJ Trots Out Same Fed Policy Axiom
It is therefore possible for critics to have the privilage of lambasting the fed in the comfort of an operating financial system.
Compton Petroleum: Asset Sales Misses Target
Compton Petroleum: Asset Sales Misses Target
Oil at New Highs: Heading to the Exit Lane
Frankly, I share the fears of most investors who are moving a major share of their investment assets to the (cash) exits.
However, the problem with moving on fear is that it is a weak conviction. We are quite likely to start buying again at the first sign of 'maybe it ain't so bad/there are bargains out there/you can't time the market, so buy & hold is best'.
Southwestern Energy: Outlook Provides Compelling Valuation
XTO Energy: Natural Gas Can Expect Over 100% Further Upside
XTO Energy: Natural Gas Can Expect Over 100% Further Upside
However, most Americans are afraid to sit on a bomb of compressed gas...it may happen, but it will take much higher gasoline prices or lack of gasoline availability. When America gets to either of those points, we will have such a broken economy, no one will want to go anywhere anyway.
Nokia: Bargain of a Lifetime - Barron's
We do need to hold analysts accountable for hyperbole. You might have also added that 9x earnings is not necessarily cheap...and certainly not "Bargain of a lifetime" cheap.
Petrobras: Set to Become a Global Oil Major - Barron's
2. I'm not comfortable with the "like Saudi Arabia 40 yrs ago" call; as 40 yrs from now, oil will probably be cheap again because of new source fuels are cheaper.
3. It will be many years before PBR can bring those new finds to market.
4. PBR absolutely MUST have high oil prices to justify the huge cost of oil recovery at those depths and other technical challenges.
5. At PBR's present P/E, there are likely many more attractive opportunities.
Solar and Wind Will Drive Natural Gas Up