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Latest Comments126 Comments
Greenspan, Please, Retire Already!
Looking at the New Commodity and Currency ETFs
I don't follow all his advise, but I have a great deal of respect for his views.
Nigeria: The Elephant in the Corner
Is Anything Worth Owning in the Auto Industry?
Within 5 years, the USA will lose a huge manufacturing base (remember WWII), a couple hundred thousand good jobs for the non-college grads, and our (former) place in the world...which is NOT to say they didn't contribute greatly to their own demise...
The consequences of our auto-makers moving what they have left off-shore will be much more severe than most now realize...a very sad for America is just over the horizon.
Energy Inventories
Agreed, the Bush Administration is a disaster.
However, both parties have given us disasters. Which is why we keep going from one to the other.
As for the SPR, if we draw on it to relieve high prices, what will we do when Isrial has attacked Iran, Iran has blocked the Straights of Hormoz, and we have no Middle East imports?...that is why we have a STRATEGIC Petroleum Reserve! Expensive gasoline is better than no gasoline. (No doubt you are to young to remember the blocks long lines to gas pumps in the 70's)
We Should Pay More Attention to Nigeria's War
I too have wondered why we are not told more about the Nigerian conflict. Your suggestions have merit.
The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
Frankly, I find myself somewhere between the polar positions. We have a liquid fuels problem--and solar, wind, geothermal, and wave energies (and the like) will not solve that problem. I suspect in the near term oil will go higher (maybe much higher), but in the longer term oil will fall as both new oil fields and liquid coal (or new technologies) come on-stream.
In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea
Agreed, interest rates on long bonds and 10-yr notes are not set by the Fed...and in the face of growing inflation, should be still higher than they are today. Are they telling us there is more economic pain ahead?...perhaps (and if so, oil consumption will decline by still more than we have seen recently).
In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea
I've been investing for almost 40 yrs. I've seen a number of bubbles, including sure-thing 'nifty-fifty', technology, and now peak oil. They come along and folks can't see beyond the hype, they think they will be money machines forever. They were not...and 'peak oil' won't be either.
I've learned many lessons from my mistakes.
I'll pass along just this one...over the course of the economic cycle, it isn't your big winners that are most important to your wealth; it's your big losers! If you allocate too much in one place, you are setting yourself up for huge losses.
Therefore, anyone who tells you not to diversify should be shunned.
That doesn't mean you should never overweigh 5 or 10% pts. in mega-trends -- like energy, alternative. energy, health care, or materials, for example...but anyone who leaves bonds and broad S&P 500 stocks out of his portfolio is going to pay dearly before this economic cycle ends.
Is Smallcap Volatility Pain Worth the Gain?
17 Commodity ETFs to Hedge Your Portfolio
Crude Oil Prices: Bears Will Soon Win Out
Crude Oil Prices: Bears Will Soon Win Out
I do think supply/demand is the CORE ISSUE, today and looking forward.
I also think there are a number of other issues and influences--including, but not limited to: U.S. dollar, speculation, shortage of refining capacity, strikes, terriorism, threat of terriorism, greedy OPEC manipulators (including Iraq and Vennesula), peak oil theory, depletion of large oil fields, Saudia Arabia may have far few reserves than claimed, exponential demand curve in Chindia, greatly increased costs for ultra-deep drilling, etc., that add both fear and complexities to oil pricing.
Thus we have a temporary price bubble...this temporary bubble can last until demand declines (because it will be a very long time before supply increases significantly.
Crude Oil Prices: Bears Will Soon Win Out
I would add that margin requirements are not "cast in stone"--they have been changed in past years to meet a variety of circumstances (for example, do the excesses of 1929 ring a bell?), and will likely be changed again. As for moving trades to London, if the USA and England were to move in concert, London trades would offer no advantage.
What's the Real Story With the Price of Crude Oil?
There is a critical decision to be made...will we invest sufficiently in alternative energies (solar, wind, wave, etc.) that will (over some years) relieve the demand pressure on oil--or won't we?
It is not an easy answer. Alternatives require subsidies and infrastructure. We have no national energy policy. If oil prices fall, we may lose interest in alternatives.