richjoy
Loading...
Symbols:
Loading...
Symbols:
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Trading Center
- Free E-Newsletters
- About Seeking Alpha
- About Us
- Contact Us
- What's New
- Readers Feedback
- Advertise With Us
- Contributors
- Contribute an Article
- Feature Your Book
- Our Contributors
- Anonymous Contributions
- Dispute an Article?
- Legal
- Terms of Use
- Privacy
- Copyright
Latest Comments126 Comments
The Self-Defeating Oil Surge
Investors should not make the mistake of concentrating on only one answer--one size (solution) does not fit all (needs).
Asia Tries to Prick the Petroleum Bubble
I would not be surprised to see it close lower, as many longs won't want to go into our 3-day weekend long in a bubble.
You know the bubble is about to burst when the oil stocks go down even as the commodity goes up.
PPI Shows Enormous Squeeze on Profits
The problem with these charts is that they lump all industries together. Clearly, some producers serve markets where input costs matter less than others (and thus are more easily passed through).
I would think you might have mentioned a few of the cost-mitigating factors available to producers who determine input cost increases are not temporary:
What about substitution with cheaper inputs -- like plastic for metals, cheaper packaging, and so forth?
What about redesign to use less of the expensive inputs?
What about buying new machines to increase productivity?
What about moving production closer to raw materials, or to a cheaper labor market?
Finally (though the above is not an exhaustive list), what about passing on those costs to wholesallers, and retailers? They can decide what portion to pass through to consumers, and what to absorb.
My point is that most producers are not without tools to respond to high input prices, though it takes time.
Bill Gross: Inflation and Higher Food Prices for the Next Decade
(Do you remember when Alan Greenspan testified before Congress in the 1990s again and again that it was 1.1% overstated, and needed to be changed?...it was changed so that your parents/grand parents Social Security payments would not keep pace with inflation!)
The unintended consequence of that action is that now ALL government data is questioned...what do we have left when we question the honesty of our own government?
Obviously, this is a much bigger issue than inflation data.
Peak Oil Stocks for the Future
Yes, oil needed to rise to make investments in alternative technologies viable...an it has!
Our Congressmen are totally nuts!...but Mr. Ellard is just as nuts on the opposite end. He sits on his lofty perch and completely ignores the economic destruction, job losses, and international chaos now accelerating to no one knows what conclusion (and long before his favorite alternative energy stocks produce a meaningful impact). It will be YEARS before wind, solar, biofuels, wave, geothermal, or others make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Oil doubling in a year is not good for either the short term or long term. The bubble must burst so we can catch our breath.
Oil Price Chart Since 1990
So oil falls to $110...$100...$90.
It won't be long before oil starts up again; it's still about supply and demand; and unfortunately, only demand is rising.
Interesting story in today's WSJ on synthetic oil and the Air Force taking the lead in testing. As it is profitable at $55/barrel, let's get going on commercial production.
Renewable Energy: Risk of Market Bubble
Still, you were directionally correct. Worldwide demand is either 86 or 87 million barrels--thus the upward spiral in price.
Oil prices will come down when price has killed demand (i.e.; we stop using so much because it costs so much).
I agree that the stock prices of the alternative energy plays can be (or are already) in a bubble. Most are operating at a loss (or depend on subsidies). No one knows which companies, or even which technologies, will succeed in the marketplace. We keep buying more shares, the stock price goes up, and we buy more shares. Price corrections are inevitible; do not dismiss the possibility of a bubble and correction.
BCA Research: More Natural Gas Price Appreciation Ahead
Oil Sensitivities
I've been thinking for a couple weeks about about the relationship between the price of the commodity (use spot oil) versus the price of the oil company stocks (integrateds, E&P, service companies):
My thinking is that there will be a time when spot oil continues to rise, but oil stocks have peaked--they will stop moving up, and than even start to decline in the face of rising spot prices.
This would be because when we buy oil stocks, we are buying a MULTI-YEAR stream of future earnings.
However, inevitably more and more investors will see that alternative energy sources are to become price competitive with oil (even if after taxpayer subsidies); at that time, we will stop buying oil company stocks, and share prices will decline -- even if the spot price of oil continues to climb (which I assume it will until it is clear supply will soon meet demand as more alternative sources come online).
First, I'm not suggesting this is going to happen in the next year or two; and second, I am going to watch the growth in oil stock p/e ratios, as it would seem a higher p/e assumes more years of growing earnings (at some point an erroneous assumption).
For now I am going to keep buying the oils; I am also going to hedge by investing in a variety of alternative energy plays.
Now it is out there...take your best shots...
T. Boone Pickens' $2 Billion Bet on Wind Energy
I hope to hear more about the commercial viability of wave power.
BRIC Is for Real
It is clear that the USA has veered from its former path, and someone (i.e.; a strong president and congress working together, instead of non-stop partisan bickering) has to put us back on the proper path.
Mesa Power Orders 1,000 MW of Wind Turbines
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF
I like this ETF, but you must realize no stock more than 3-4% of the portfolio; thus great or dismal performance of one or two names won't have much impact on XES...this is an industry play (which is fine with me).
Is Berkshire Hathaway Now a Bargain?
Is Berkshire Hathaway Now a Bargain?
As for myself, I have 16 shares of BRKB. I'm disappointed that the man who called dirrivatives "weapons of mass distruction", allowed those same WMD to produce huge insurance losses for his stockholders. Consequently, I have no reason to wait for the announcement of his successor, I have placed limit sales as the stock price recovers near term.