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Latest Comments126 Comments
What I'm Reading This Week: Commodities, Inflation and BRICs
Fighting over Peak Oil is getting us no closer to a solution.
However, the fact that worldwide demand for oil is exceeding (present) supply is resulting in higher and higher monetary and social costs to meet the world's need of oil...thus clearly forcing us all to the realization that the world must broaden its energy sources to include wind, solar, biomass, nuclear, tidal, geothermal (and any I forgot to list).
The higher cost of oil will be its own demise (thankfully). The sooner we bring more alternatives to the marketplace, the sooner the cost of oil will fall...and the sooner we will have a foreign policy that actually represents our national values.
What I'm Reading This Week: Commodities, Inflation and BRICs
Mesa Power Orders 1,000 MW of Wind Turbines
Unfortunately, various government "incentives" are required to assist in meeting start-up costs and reduce risks. (Unfortuantely, the 100+ year-old oil industry is still getting various and huge incentives.)
Bring on the hot rocks!...and all the other new energy technologies!
T. Boone Pickens' $2 Billion Bet on Wind Energy
BTW, there is a surplus of uranium, it may take years for speculative players to be profitable.
Like P. T. Barnum said...
T. Boone Pickens' $2 Billion Bet on Wind Energy
Arguements over which is the BEST alternative energy play is largely a waste of time.
I don't have the resources to know which of the alternative energy plays is is best, and I doubt you do! (I suspect several will survive, as they meet different needs). So I am investing in as many as I can--but I want to spread my risks, so I mostly invest through ETFs.
Hoping the Housing Crisis Is Over
"...living in a dream"
"...smoking crack"
"prices much come down another 25%"
"moran...jackass&...
"...what rock did he crawl from...flippin burgers"
These negative responses are over-the-top!
All Mr. Picerno said was "IT'S NOT OVER", but we're closer to the end than the beginning--which means we are more than half way through the "housing crisis".
National housing permits peaked in late 2005, and prices soon after...If we are now, after 2 1/2 years, half way through the "crisis" period, it would be over +/- mid-2010.
Isn't it more than likely that even if we are not to return to "peak housing prices" for another 4 or 5 years, we will probably not be in "crisis" more than another year (mid 2009)?
And what's wrong with building appartments?...Are you suggesting there is no need for appartments because there is an appartment GLUT?...Where do people live when they have lost their home due to bankruptcy--do you suppose many rent?
You seem unable to accept good news when it is not the BEST news; second, your collective comments suggest you enjoy wallowing in "we're in recession/don't confuse me with facts..."all news is bad news, even if it's good news!"; and finally, if you are looking for a taxpayer bailout, you should have the guts to say so.
These reports are NATIONAL, but all real estate is LOCAL. Yes, there are serious home surpluses in many SMSAs on the coasts and Detroit/Los Vegas, but some markets are either doing reasonably well or only in a mild correction (from historic price inflation). The markets with the most serious surpluses are almost all those with the biggest recent building booms/price inflation.
Foreclosures Prove Loan Modification Isn't Working
All we need to do is give courts the authority to change mortgage contracts (that's right, lower the rates to whatever the borrower thinks he can afford...presto! problem solved!)
Of course, there will be consequences. First, mortgage rates will go up several percentage points; second, qualifications (credit histories, down payments, etc.) will be tightened so fewer people will qualify; third, there will be vastly more people signing rental contracts where rent payments apply to the eventual purchase; fourth, (what the hell, does it matter?)
I absolutely assure you, those who think they will lower the price of gasoline by adding more taxes to the oil companies, are just the people who will be pushing legislation to give courts authority to modify mortgate contracts.
Bond Market Needs Revolutionary Change For Investors' Sake
Crude Oil: Congress Acts, Iran Hoards, RTX Soars
Petrobras is Hoarding the World's Deep Sea Drillers
RIG, on the other hand, is well known, touted daily (and almost as loudly as you have), and well-subscribed.
However, your point (RIG is a good investment) appears correct.
Want to Fix the Fed? Get Rid of It
OK, the Fed isn't perfect...yes, in 20/20 hindsight, Greenspan received more adulation than he should have, and he certainly stuck with low rates too long (and should have used Fed powers to curtail those stupid lending practices).
However, dispite it's faults, we need the Fed to put on the brakes when necessary, and also lubricate our economic machine when needed.
They're still learning. I am not ready to step into the abyss just because they are not yet perfect.
As for Volker, one must wonder...what is his agenda?...Maybe he feels pressure to defend his legacy (for example: might he have been more innovative in addressing inflation than those horrendously high interest rates and awful recession?). Why has he moved from background and near-obscurity and retirement to seeking a microphone at 80-something?
IMF: Speculation Playing 'Significant Role' in Oil Price Surge
IMF: Speculation Playing 'Significant Role' in Oil Price Surge
...And markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!
85 million barrels of oil are being pumped from wells daily; there is a world market for more--about 87 million barrels; hence when demand exceeds supply, price rises so the marginal buyers are eliminated.
Has the price risen more than might be expected?...Yes, and that is why we are calling it a bubble, and pointing an accusing finger at speculators.
But the bigger issue is: When will the bubble burst?...Answer: When either demand falls (worldwide recession or something else replaces oil in enough applications), or supply grows sufficiently to produce a surplus (new oil fields come on line, which can take some years after discovery). You will notice I did not mention conservation, which might help in the very short term, but demand growth will soon overtake any benefits of conservation.
Is that so hard to understand?
(In the meantime, with respect to the USA, politics hinder, rather than helping, an improvement in supply. I'm thinking no drilling in ANWAR or coastal regions, environmental regs that effectively prohibit new refineries threats to oil company profits (tax more, get less), and stupid subsidies to corn-based ethanol.)
Oil Prices Popped the Bubble, Not Subprime - Housing Tracker
The cost of gasoline didn't become a common complaint until recently, but still accounts for a small part of our total spending. In the last year or so, over 1,000,000 monthly mortgages rising by +/-$300 (versus 50 gallons of gas monthly to get from the subburbs to work in the city and back has risen by maybe $50). Gasoline is a factor, but mortgages have been much more painful to a significant portion of consumers. Furthermore, you didn't take into account rising incomes over the period 2002 to present.
I suppose you will next bring up the "Hemline and Super Bowl Indiicators".
High-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Eye Perfect Storm