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Latest Comments126 Comments
2010 - An Electric Car Odyssey
If those companies can make vehicles that get 100 or more miles per charge, so can GM, Ford, Toyota, Nissan, etc....and they have the warranties, dealer and parts networks in place.
I welcome the new technology--and certainly those established companies need the push that is coming from new entrants.
But I would not invest in these new auto companies -- not their stocks, and not $30,000 to buy their product if the established players are competitive.
My Top 5 Alternative Energy Stocks - and 10 Honorable Mentions
Fortunately, I don't need to hit a lot of home runs (which usually means being a .250 hitter); I'm comfortable being a .300 hitter with a lot of singles and doubles, and few strike-outs.
I very much like the alternative energy industry, but I am not certain which stocks, or even technologies, will be the winners in 5 years -- let alone in 30 years! I very much suspect (a) there will be a shakeout, perhaps violently so, with most of the alternative energy companies disappearing (clearly, some are pursuing dead-ends or have poor managements), and (b) the winners will not be one technology, but several which are best for different applications. Therefore, I like to spread the risks with ETF's plus a few individual stocks added.
Thanks to you, I'll now consider adding Applied Materials to my portfolio.
The New Peak Oil: Peak Demand
Therefore, the only thought I wish to add (and I have not seen this elsewhere) is that with the economies of Iran and Venezuela being (a) nearly totalitarian, (b) being "unfriendly" to the largest users of oil, and (c) being strongly dependent on oil revenues to support social programs and keep their populations from revolting, it seems to me they will do everything in their power (and it doesn't take much) to keep the price of oil as high as they can--and make it go higher when they like...
For example, in addition to their considerable influence and voting power within OPEC, they can keep oil priced above any fundamental value.
But more importantly, it seems to me that when spot oil drops a few dollars, it would be a simple thing to send a couple speedboats to cause an incident in the Straits of Hormuz...or to blow up a pipeline in Iraq...or to fund or encourage an attack on oil facilities in Nigeria...or to destabilize any of several Middle East countries (which raises oil's terror premium).
I'm not claiming a specific conspiracy...but I do think it has (or will) occured to them that they have the means to keep the price of oil high.
What's the Best Way to Capture a Country?
Energy Sector Is Approaching Negative Seasonality
Commodities: Bubble or Not?
Population growth in the USA is (fortunately) a bit above maintenance; it has declined over the last couple decades. Our growth is in large part due to peoples who have come here from other countries...both illegially and legally. (In fact, it is because we need population growth to support our economy, that our government, either democrat or republican, will only give lip service to border enforcement).
Europe is in a much more serious situation with respect to population -- many European countries, including Italy!, have declining populations. European social welfare costs are going to become staggering in a few years.
Yes, we do have a few Mormons here, and they do tend to have large families; however, their contribution to our population growth is not significant.
Parabolic Move In Crude Oil Looks Extended
So, you believe in Peak Oil...OK, maybe it is the case...however:
Isn't it true that just a year ago, there was no giant oil field off the coast of Brazil, but now there are two giant fields. (same applies to the new field in the southern Gulf of Mexico).
No one knows how much oil is yet to be found in waters much deeper than we had the technology to find just a couple years ago. Also, at $80, 90, $100/barrel, it is now economical to look in places we did not look before. Technology marches on.
Therefore, I for one, don't think you can be so certain when the oil will be gone.
Barry Ritholtz Sees More Upside in Commodities
I read a few weeks ago on Barry's blog that he was considering withdrawl from Seeking Alpha because they had edited his material (whereas he said his agreement with them specifically stated they would publish his material without edits)...So make of it what you like.
Parabolic Move In Crude Oil Looks Extended
The issue is really (a) how far?; and (b) for how long before it resumes its upward climb?
A pull-back would be welcome; a lot of folks are being hurt by shifting income to fuel from other needs.
But it they think gasoline is going back to $2/gal., or that it gas will fall to $2.50 and stay there for a year; I think they are going to be disappointed. Gas at $5+/gal. is on the horizon...6 months, 1 yr?, 2 yrs?
The same can be said for a the commodities and materials.
Barry Ritholtz Sees More Upside in Commodities
Three Fundamental Principles of Globalization
By whatever theory, I have bought into the global increase in demand for commodities of kinds (including materials).
Unfortunately, this also means a prolonged period of rising inflation.
Thus I'm hedging against it by investing in commodity and materials stocks; and I don't think I can be so wrong that they will not be at least GOOD investments.
Who's Really to Blame for Rising Oil?
I asked that you provide us some perspective comparing big oil's % of net profits to those of other large companies (like GE, Microsoft, IBM, and Apple) over the last 3 or 5 years, so we can all better determine if big oil's profits are as outrageous as you have told us to believe.
At 01:22 PM Sawgill added that "large oil company profits compared to S&P average profits are within 1% of each other".
So, we now have cause to wonder if you know what you are writing about...therefore, it would seem reasonable for us to expect that your next posting will address a perspective comparing the profits of these oil companies to other large companies.
Thank you.
Isn't that fair?
Who's Really to Blame for Rising Oil?
OK, gasoline prices are high, and I certainly didn't like paying $3.45/gallon at Walmart yesterday. But your rant about "scary" gasoline prices would be more credible if you can convince us that future gasoline prices of $5 to $6 a gallon are scary...in view of the fact that gasoline prices are already $8/gallon in many other countries (most of which have less disposable income than we have)?
Yes, it is not a good situation and will lead to more food inflation, but we can do as others have and accommodate it. Certainly for those complaining the most (if they really, really, mean it), your lifestyle change suggestions can be helpful to them.
p.s. Now that you have joined the ranks of "big oil haters" and cited their large sales and profit numbers without perspective...how about you now provide some perspective -- compare big oil's net profit margins (perhaps the last 3 or 5 years) with those of GE, Microsoft, IBM, Apple, who also have impressively large dollar sales and profit margins?...let's see how the net profit margins of XOM, CVX, and XOP compare to others.
I think Congress has provided oil companies large and small some unreasonable/inappropr... incentives in the past (and I think they should be carefully examined and adjusted or eleminated). But also please tell us how more taxing of oil companies is going to increase supply and lower prices (since it has never worked in the past)?
Commodities: Bubble or Not?
Some seem to (still) cling to the belief that gasoline demand in the USA influences price. For them, it seems there is no better wake-up than that gasoline demand is actually falling here (down by 7%), while the global price of oil is still rising.
If GLOBAL demand falls, it will first bring demand back to even with supply; than if there is a further falling of demand can bring down the price of oil significantly.
In the face of global growth in living standards, conservation can only produce limited (and temporary) results. I'm betting on increased demand (and thus prices) until alternative sources are actually widely implemented.
Commodities: Bubble or Not?
It is bad enough that a few farm state Congressmen and Senators (Grassly in particular) with seniority were able to ram through this legislation to the benefit of farmers and Archer Daniels Midland (gigantic campaign contributor); but they also included a 60 cents/gallon taxpayer subsidy, and prohibited cheaper ethanol from Brazil.
Than there is the matter of efficiency--it takes almost as much energy to make corn-based ethanol as what is produced. There are more negatives, but you get the idea; ethanol is politics at its worst!