R. Richard Schweitzer

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    • Sat Nov 15th 15:55 PM
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      Commented on:
      Why AIG Was in the CDS Business
      Though it has been touched on obliquely elsewhere, there has been a "multiplier effect" in the impact of CDS that were essentially "insurance." That is, that much of the exposure came about by selling to parties who had "no insurable interest;" particularly when the "premiums" were low.

      Sellers of latter day forms of CDS (where actually there was no true "swap" of "my risk for your risk," resulting in a comparative risk exchange) were "betting" with a third party against the "death" of a specific party with no requirement that the insured had any relation that might result in a loss from that "death."

      When epidemics began, the costs of "deaths" went far beyond the losses payable to those who incurred actual losses.
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 14th 08:49 AM
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      Commented on:
      Secretary Paulson Does the Right Thing, Again
      Consider: If Treasury [T] were to buy (through some complex "auction" system - with its delays and snags) from a bank 100 mil of unpriceable assets (paper), the T would then have the entire risk of further loss on that paper. If the paper is left in the bank and T becomes an equity participant, then the risk of further loss (or write down/off) will be spread over the entire equity base of which T's share is only part, not entire.

      Also, a $ of added equity, will have more effect on viable credit extensions by a bank (subject to further reductions in assets values by write down/off) than a $ of bad asset removal.

      What was the rationale for removing "toxic" assets and replace them with auction derived prices. To increase the viable equity, of course. Direct investment does that.

      The next step in "pricing" consumer debt, will provide a benchmark (really a surveyor's monument) for valuing a major segment of bank and financial organizations' holdings. Consider how "credit card balances" have come to equal the "demand deposits" (checking accounts) in monetary measurements. Checking accounts are now largely used as "clearing accounts" for credit transactions and settlements, not for holding "money" balances. People no longer hold cash balances to the previous extents.
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    • Thu Nov 13th 09:37 AM
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      Fire Hank Paulson Now
      Why is it so difficult to understand the shift from taking losses off the books of banks (by buying "toxic" assets) and thus bearing the entire loss thereon, as opposed to leaving the loss in the banks to be shared by the original capital structure along with new capital injected?

      Why has it not been seen that there are cases of "Too big to Manage," as well as "Too big to Fail?"
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    • Tue Jul 8th 07:36 AM
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      Commented on:
      Several Firms Come to Defense of Fannie, Freddie
      Changing the dressing of the store windows does not chnage the quality of the merchandise inside.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 8th 07:20 AM
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      Commented on:
      Recommending PriceSmart in Light of Sustained Store Momentum
      One may be reminded of Peter Drucker's caveats about placing too much on the meaning of EPS.

      Expand this article by analysis of inventory growth related to sales volume; changes in G&A; cash flow[?], etc.



      View article »
    • Tue Jul 8th 07:08 AM
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      Fannie and Freddie: Let’s Call the Whole Thing Off
      Absolutely on target. This would also end one of the most corrupting synergies in politics.

      The impact would be more effective and far-reaching than the proposed "Housing bailout," and have a much lower long-term cost with lower "moral hazard."
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 6th 21:14 PM
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      Commented on:
      Gross Margin Drivers at Potash Corp. (Part II)
      Oh! and I first learned about the distinct need for Potash working on a farm in DeKalb County, IL. back in the 30's. The lessons apply to most of Iowa and Nebraska as well.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 6th 21:11 PM
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      Commented on:
      Gross Margin Drivers at Potash Corp. (Part II)
      THERE MAY SOMETHING CALLED THE "ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY" AT WORK HERE AFFECTING THIS INFORMATIVE ANALYSIS.

      PRODUCTION OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHATE(S) CAN RESPOND RATHER QUICKLY TO INCREASED DEMAND. NOT SO EASY FOR POTASH. IT WILL TAKE A FEW YEARS OF SUSTAINED INCREASES IN DEMAND TO BRING ON NEW SOURCES, THOUGH SOME HAVE STARTED. IT TAKES A FEW YEARS TO OPEN A NEW "MINE."
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 3rd 06:36 AM
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      Commented on:
      Beware of Crumbling BRICs
      If this concerns U S investors with BRIC-related holdings, shouldn't some of the commentary reflect "relative" rates of inflation; using, for example, the true rate of U.S. inflation? (see, Bill Gross and others)

      If the true U.S rate is about 5.3% (being adjusted closer to the "world average" of about 7%) the competitive edge for the PGJ index should increase.

      It is interesting to note that the increase in supply of U.S. Dollars in an open economy, produces lower inflation rates than occur in "command" sytems such as China and Russia. Brazil has become more open and normal. India is a political mess with subsidies distorting the pricing mechanisms.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 08:45 AM
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      Commented on:
      Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      How about doing a report on the "quality of Tracking/"

      Or have I missed it?
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 22nd 22:32 PM
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      Commented on:
      Global Inflation Rates
      Incidentally, It does not appear that the median of the list was based on any form of weighting.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 22nd 22:30 PM
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      Commented on:
      Global Inflation Rates
      Correction: Japan IS on this list (next to bottom)
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    • Sun Jun 22nd 22:29 PM
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      Commented on:
      Global Inflation Rates
      Bill Gross had some telling commentary in the June PIMCO Report on the point of an understated U S inflation rate.

      In fact the global inflation rate may be inaccurate.

      Try 7%. A good measure is the number of hours of work (usually at some median wage net of taxes - direct and indirect) is required to obtain the basics of given standards of living.

      Discl: Long YEN futures (Japan is not on this list!!)
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    • Sun Jun 22nd 22:15 PM
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      Commented on:
      Two Emerging Market Steel Plays: Mechel and Siderurgica
      MTL - "some coal?" If my research is on target, MTL is the largest coal cutter in the world.

      MTL "charts" are still reflecting the split (3-1) and its after effects.

      SID may be getting too vertical for it's managements background, but they will likely bring in some new people for parts of the operations.

      Discl: Long (for quite some time) SID & MTL
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    • Fri Jun 20th 08:06 AM
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      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Gee, Ishortyou, how many times will you post this same stuff?

      Disclosure: Long MBI - so not antithetical.
      View article »