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    • Wed Nov 12th 08:26 AM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      A Buy & Hold Forever Dividend Stock Portfolio
      Good list.

      Back testing would make no sense since these are all companies that did pretty well in the period back tested. A list from 20 years ago might have included Kodak (EK), last year's list would have probably included AIG.

      For back testing, check the XMI index a group of 20 stocks, many on this list. I do not think there has been many changes over time. WalMart and MSFT were not original in 1983.


      COMPONENTS FOR ^XMI
      Symbol Name Last Trade Change Volume
      AXP AMER EXPRESS INC
      CVX CHEVRON CORP
      DD DU PONT E I DE NEM
      DIS WALT DISNEY
      DOW DOW CHEMICAL
      EK EASTMAN KODAK
      GE GEN ELECTRIC CO
      GM GEN MOTORS
      IBM INTL BUSINESS MACH
      IP INTL PAPER
      JNJ JOHNSON AND JOHNS
      KO COCA COLA CO
      MCD MCDONALDS
      MMM 3M COMPANY
      MO ALTRIA GROUP INC
      MRK MERCK CO INC 27.55
      MSFT Microsoft Corporation
      PG PROCTER GAMBLE CO
      WMT WAL MART STORES
      XOM EXXON MOBIL CP


      View article »
    • Wed Oct 22nd 08:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Price During Recessions
      1973-1975 was characterized by a gut wrenching bear market in stocks, rapidly rising oil prices, and the Nixon resignation. At the end of 1974 American's right to own gold was restored, creating a surge in demand.

      In 1980 we were experiencing runaway inflation culminating in the Hunt's attempt to corner the silver market. There was a loss of confidence in the role of paper money as a store of value.

      My guess is that we are in a deflation that will tip to inflation. Gold will do well, but probably not for the next 12 months.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 20th 15:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What We Can Learn from Volatility History
      The "minor correction" of 1973-1974 was more severe than the current bear market (so far). I think that bear market can be viewed as a generational event lasting from Feb 1966 until Aug 1982.

      In that 16.5 year span the Dow Jones Industrial average was down over
      22%
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 10th 12:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman CDS: It Won't Be Over Today
      Settlement is around 91%. Problem is the banks who sold protection on Lehman debt thinking that they had protection from a company like Primus. (PRS) Primus, a Bermuda stock at 80 cents/share, has sold
      credit protection in total around $24 billion. Lehman, Wamu, Fannie, Freddie, and yes, Iceland banks.

      It could get ugly.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 10th 08:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday's Bond Outlook: Bursting of the Treasury Security Bubble? (Update)
      As of 8:37 AM the yields on T-bills are falling and the yields on notes are rising. The yield curve is getting steeper. That reflects the
      fear that the cure for the deflation we are currently experiencing is inflation.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 10th 08:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Who We Should Blame for This Crisis
      This is a great list of blame. I particularly blame the SEC for lack of oversight as some financial balance sheets went over 40 to 1 leverage.
      How about Moody's and S&P? They certainly added much to the problem with undeserved AAA ratings.
      I find it more difficult to blame sub prime borrowers. They had
      professional lending officers and appraisers telling them that they were making a good investment in a home they could afford.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 7th 08:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      If you want to think about what could make the nightmare worse, watch the relationship between the ETFs and their net asset value. For instance if you start to see the SPY trade consistantly below its NAV (SXV), you will know disaster is coming.

      I sold all my SPY, MDY and QQQQ yesterday and replaced them with an equal dollar amount to approximate the same S&P industry weightings.

      Sounds crazy? My brokers are telling me that customers are afraid of
      FDIC insured bank deposit sweeps and are buying Treasury Bills at a much lower yield.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 1st 12:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Lowdown on Citi / Wachovia
      Wachovia common stock is still WB. Wachovia preferreds B, C and D
      are now Citigroup preferreds. Wachovia preferreds S and T and WNA preferred are still Wachovia preferreds.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 1st 08:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tuesday Overview: Confusion and Caution
      If you invested $10,000 in the NASDAQ Composite index exactly 10 years ago, you have a $12 loss. Of course, you have had a lot of excitement.

      See chart titled Index Performance:
      www.invescopowershares...


      Monday the QQQQ closed at $37.82, a 1.9% premium to Net Asset Value. Very strange. I noticed this yesterday when the QQQQ was trading down 25c in the pre-market and the NASDAQ futures were up 2%. (yes, I know the QQQQ is based on another index, the NDX).
      Leading QQQQ component stocks were all higher.





      View article »
    • Wed Oct 1st 07:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore
      To digress from an excellent article, how does Home Depot sell topsoil that comes from Canada in 40 lb. bags for $1.29 each? I mean, think of how many times it has to be handled and moved, inventoried, etc.

      You mention Russia. I was there a month ago and the current hot investment trend is buying up former collective farms. Before WW1 Czarist Russia was the largest grain exporter in the world.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 30th 16:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Lowdown on Citi / Wachovia
      One additional thought on Wachovia (WB), the corporation that remains will have a large tax loss carry forward.
      This could be of great value to another highly taxed corporation.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 30th 07:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Lowdown on Citi / Wachovia
      Beware of the Wachovia (WB) debt. Citigroup (C) and Wachovia are engaged but not yet married. There is a good reason why listed Wachovia notes are available for as little as 60 cents on the dollar.

      First, the deal has to be approved by the Wachovia shareholders.
      (maybe the debt holders are buying WB common with this in mind)

      Second, a lot of things could still go wrong. Either with the system, Citi itself, or Wachovia.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 29th 20:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Lowdown on Citi / Wachovia
      I sent this in as a Seeking Alpha submission, but I will append it here in case anyone is interested:

      We now have a clearer idea of what will remain in Wachovia Corp (WB) after the transfer of the banking assets and corporate debt to Citigroup (C).
      I spent all day reading Wachovia Corp prospectuses hoping that the common and preferreds would get hit when they opened. It seems that others were reading them too.

      The WB common closed in the after market today around $2. That is after being halted in the pre-market at $.90/share.

      There are several different preferreds issued by Wachovia and they have unique features. Some are actually backed by debt. (WBprB, WBprC, WBprD). Dividends can be skipped for 10 years without triggering a default. I assume (a dangerous word) that these will
      become debt of Citigroup. That is not 100% clear. All three are $25 par and trading between 9 and 11.

      Then, there is WBprS (called preferred J) which is a 1/40 share of an actual preferred with an 8% dividend. It was sold in Dec. 2007. The dividend is not cumulative and this preferred is equity. It will continue to be a security of Wachovia Corp. It closed around $7.

      The WBprT was issued at $1000/share in April 2008. It has a lot of moving parts. It closed at $320 and traded actively in the after market session. I suggest that you read the prospectus:
      www.sec.gov/Archives/e...

      Dividends on this preferred are 7.5% and not cumulative. It will continue to be a security of WB.

      Then you have to figure out what the remaining Wachovia will be worth. It will consist of Wachovia Securities (including AG Edwards), Evergreen funds, an insurance subsidiary, and the $2.1 billion of Citigroup shares it will receive when the bank transaction is completed.

      The common shareholders have to approve this.

      There will possibly be a very large tax loss carry forward and this may be of value to a merger partner.

      Prudential (PRU) will continue to own a minority interest in Wachovia Securities.

      I don't know what all this will turn out to be worth, but I think all these preferred securities
      will be worth more than today's closing prices in 6 months. The preferred securities that
      remain with Wachovia will all rank ahead of the WB common stock.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 29th 08:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Banking on Wachovia As a Bailout Trade
      Wachovia common stock is probably toast. On friday several issues of Wachovia debt were offered at 35 to 50 cents on the dollar. With the Wamu debt having been wiped out in the Chase deal this debt was very risky.

      I tried (and failed) to buy the Aa3 rated 1st Union Nat Bank Charlotte debt. Now I wish I had been more aggresive in my attempt as I think it will become Citi or Wells Fargo debt.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 26th 07:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Friday Came Early
      Real capitalists don't need bailouts.
      View article »
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