SCovert

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    • Thu Oct 23rd 17:08 PM
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      Commented on:
      Rare Batman Pattern Forming in the VIX
      Darn right it's legit.

      What do we say to financial meltdown worries?

      How about BAM!! ZONK!! WHAMMO!! Hand me the CDS-repellant BatSpray (TM), Robin!

      Please forgive me for that, as ALL my stocks moved in a 10% range today. What? Yours did too?
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 29th 18:54 PM
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      Commented on:
      Financial Markets Circle the Drain: Where Does That Leave Clean Energy?
      They should have called a Housing Support Bill and they could have got it passed easily. Or the "support our troops apple pie patriot bill".
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 11:48 AM
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      Commented on:
      10 Years of Google: Is Search Really 90% Solved?
      My frustrating search (ending minutes ago) for 60+ minutes on the real, demonstrated use of long-term inhaled corticosteroids on trying to gain size and strength through weight lifting, demonstrates the absolute infancy and uselessness of many aspects of search. The answer I was looking for was specific and simply, but the search results were a combination of word-salad and uselessness. Search engines are good for looking up "how to train a dog" or "discount jewelry toronto" but for now, that's about as far as it goes. We are nowhere near close to having a global computerized Oracle-type construct that can be asked any question.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 27th 11:47 AM
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      Commented on:
      Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction'
      To Brian Pursley -
      I agree there's good evidence oil came from biomass but not necessarily fossils (ie. dead dinosaurs), but I'm not sure if that'll help us find more of it - or help us to create it any more cheaply. After science proves something, it'll take 10 years before it hits the newspapers and another 10-20 years before it becomes common knowledge.
      Now if it IS possible to use biomass, like fields of algae (?) to create oil somehow, that'd set the fuel industry on its ass. Or get the inventor killed by big oil.
      The short and/or medium term outlook for oil may indeed be bullish, but in the long run it's dooowwwwnnnn. California already is basically forcing 16000 hauling trucks to switch from gas to natgas.
      In another 10 years we'll have books about "Peak Natural Gas" and "Peak Coal".
      And so it goes ...
      Sunday morning after a big party - am I rambling?
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 20:13 PM
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      Commented on:
      5 Key Quotes from Yahoo! on the Internet Industry
      His point was, here are the salient points so you don't have to read the whole transcript or listen to the call.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 13th 12:55 PM
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      Commented on:
      The Precarious & Problematic Potash Pyramid at Potash Corp. (Part IV)
      Next - the screenplay.

      Sorry for the chartspeak (some people REEAALLLYYY hate charts and only enjoy the stories), but POT keeps bouncing up off its 50-day moving average. Hence it is a buy on those bounces, such as last Monday-Tuesday. One day the pattern will break and the 20-day moving average (for example) will cross under the 50-day, and it'll be time to take a loss without fussing about "the story". In other words, it will start going down one day, and it will be the fundamentalists more than anyone else who will ride it all the way down to $whatever instead of using a disciplined stop.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 3rd 14:00 PM
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      Commented on:
      The Dow In Euros
      Uh-oh.

      I can think of 2 things to sell here - call options, and parachutes.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 21st 14:32 PM
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      Commented on:
      Ethanol Is No Field of Dreams
      My 2-cents-worth barbaric yawp:

      a) as a person with asthma, it's distressing to me that ALL focus has turned to global warming, and NOBODY talks about pollutants any more. Excuse me for wanting the world to be less poisoned so that I can use my (also poisonous) inhalers less to survive. We hear about carbon every day - but when was the last time you heard anyone say "CFC" or "PCB" or "terratogen" or "carcinogen" or "sulfite" etc. etc.? A very successful manipulation of public thinking is at work here.

      b) Brazil has a thriving ethanol industry, thanks - it's old-school to them - keep in mind it was not engineered by the mentally challenged USA gummint

      c) if coal and gas can be made clean, I'm all for it, and agree we don't need the solar, wind, wave, geotherm and other alternatives - we can coast for 50-75 years and let our great grand-kids worry about it.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 28th 08:47 AM
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      Commented on:
      E*Trade: Hindsight with Binoculars
      I'm long July $5 calls on speculation.

      My thesis is that Etrade did what banks are being handsomely rewarded for in March-April 08, but they did it in Nov 07 when it was grounds for punishment, not reward.

      Nobody (not institutional buyers, anyway) has looked back to that time, realized the disconnect, and treated the stock as it would have been treated if it had started aggressively raising capital and writing down assets TODAY.

      Efficient market my a--.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 10th 19:01 PM
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      Commented on:
      Market Not Buying Forward P/E Estimates
      Sorry about my first entry, I thot I'd be able to edit it.

      We need more of this type of charting because 1) it is not
      the type of thing you see on TV (hint hint - clicks "Mute"
      button) and 2) it sparks good ideas that let one project into
      the future and may encourage some people to buy SPX
      puts (or whatever) to hedge their longs.

      The fly in the ointment for bears (that's me, since I exist
      in the real world) is the global situation. Chindia have tens
      of millions of people constantly joining their version of our
      middle class. They will demand western-style networking
      (CSCO etc.) and housing (will LEN or TOL or HOV go
      international?), equipment for raising animals for food (CAT,
      DE etc.), fertilizer, and phones by the barge-load.

      It's hard to figure how it all plays out when you combine it
      with the fact that our entire financial system is deleveraging
      itself into oblivion.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 10th 18:53 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Not Buying Forward P/E Estimates
      More of this type of stuff!

      More I say!

      Thank you.
      View article »