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Latest Comments20 Comments
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
Go have a drink and chill out, unbridled arrogance gets boring fast.
Yankee Running Dog
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
Spoken like a true insider... Sounds like Dave hit a nerve with you, perhaps you are the insider Shill.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
Here is my dime store philosophy for the day:
The quick and dirty cure for the financial meltdown is for the world to basically declare itself bankrupt and all debt is written off at 9 am tomorrow morning and there is a new beginning.. 95% of the worlds population would love it, 5 % that controls all the money and power would hate it, as they would have to go to end of the line. It is a shame that the fraudsters are going to make the 95% go down with them, just so they can keep their position at the top of the pile.
Nouriel Roubini Predicts (Surprise!) a Long Recession
Deflation Changes the Rules
Gold is an interesting question in deflation. We cannot learn from the history of the depression as currencies were unwinding from the gold standard then and then the US government confiscated all the gold in the USA. I have heard several sources that sell gold saying that their sources have dried up in the last week, bullion is hard to get. With supply drying up, the price should be going through the roof, but is not.. Something unusual is going on here...
I would say there are current technical factors as to why the dollar is going up, like European Banks having to raise dollar reserves to cover their dollar denominated mortgage securities (can anyone spell lumps of shi*). The Libor rate is through the roof so they have to go out on the market to buy dollars. How long this will last is anyone’s guess, but eventually the Fed pumping billions and now trillions a day out its window will have to lead to some kind of dilution of Uncle Buck.
Will inflation or deflation win? All of the dollars pumping would say inflation; people quit buying things, losing their jobs and no credit for anything would say deflation. No wonder we all getting whipsawed everyday as deflation and inflation tear each other to pieces. Who ever wins may not leave many of us standing.
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
One is just about all of my short ETFs are gone. I put very high limits on them, most above any previous rocket high, and almost all have been taken out. Its like watching a rocket punch up and hand you some money.. So I am now waiting for the next dead cat bounce or sucker rally or whatever it will be to load up on Ultra short ETFs.
Two, are we going to see deflation or inflation. After reading some history from 1929 to 1933, after the banks seized up, prices of just about everything went down... Not hard to imagine if no one is buying. Seems like that mentality is starting to take hold now. I am not sure what gold will do if there is deflation now. Back in the 1930's currencies were rolling off the gold standard and then Uncle Bucky seized all the gold in the USA so we cannot look to that as a lesson. I certainly agree with the billions soon to be trillions pumping out the Fed window, there has to be a dilution of the buck and many argue for inflation. Right now, my instinct tells me that deflation is just around the corner.. and capitalism does not work well in deflation, nothing to feed the greed. This could be back to Hobbs natural state where life is "short, nasty and brutish". How long can you make a living shorting the market?
The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story?
Don't be so sure on the min wage cut.. One of the canidates for govenor in Washington is proposing just that, a cut in the min wage.
The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story?
Also in the 1929 to 1932 period, people simply quit spending money and prices of just about everything dropped. I think that this is a very probable scenario today.
An interesting question is that if deflation is coming, what will happen to gold. It's hard to look to the Depression for answers there when the countries were abandoning the gold standard and US citizens were forbidden to own gold from 1933. Will gold be a safe haven independent from deflation or will its value fall like everything else?
My intuition (not nearly as complicated and rambling as the author’s words!) tells me that deflation is just around the corner. And capitalist theory does not work very well in deflation. I know Ben spent all his academic energy figuring out how to stop deflation, let’s hope he has something up his sleeve, otherwise our sage George Bush could be correct when he said, "This sucker could go down."
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Plummets to Six Year Low
Mark-to-Market vs. Mark-to-History
I find it criminal that the SEC changes their rules on mark to market just before King Henry gets the nod to start buying bank assets with taxpayer money. Instead of moving in at fire sale prices with a chance to actually make money for the US taxpayer, they change the rules so the US taxpayer will be paying retail rates for firewood at a fire sale! Why is not someone going to jail? This will only cost the US taxpayer something like a few hundred billion dollars extra...Oh yea, I forgot, King Henry used to run one of those banks and people like Gramm and Rubin are whispering into the two candidates ears as advisors.. Sage George Bush was quoted about ten days ago as saying "This sucker could go down." Well, now it looks like it will and the bankers are going to help themselves to all the money they can on the way down..
Don't ever call this a Rescue Package, it is a bailout.
The Bailout Pork Effect: Short Term Rally, Long Term Disaster
In case you have not looked at the charts recently, all the industrials and materials are headed straight down, China has quit importing oil..
Only time will tell the name of the game, deflation or inflation.
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
"One of the things we've learned this week is that the European banks are not getting to go Ollie, Ollie Oxen Free, on the holding of toxic waste debt... And since they are U.S. issued mortgage bonds, the trader that called tells me that they need to have capital reserved in U.S. dollars. Well, usually, these banks use LIBOR for this funding... But with the credit crunch going on all over, LIBOR rates have gone through the roof. So... Looking for alternative means of raising capital, the European banks have turned to the euro / dollar swap market... Selling their euro reserves and buying dollars"
The libor rate does not seem to be coming down any time soon, so Uncle Bucky could be strong for a while. Not good for all the foreign currency ETFs I hold.
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
One sidebar on the marked to market rule change. When cheap fed money fueled a huge bubble and prices were skyrocketing, the banks were not complaining about the marked to market, it overvalued their assets and they were happy. When it goes the other way, time out, rule change and now we can make the US taxpayer buy up our lumps of sh$# at overvalued prices... Why is not someone going to jail? I mean after all, its just a few billion (probably about 200!) of taxpayer money.
Does anyone know a good liquor stock to invest in, I need a drink!
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
You brought up a very interesting "incident" with CNY. It dropped from about 36 to 30 in one hour with no movement on the Yuan. Is this the result of some derivatives gone bad or one of the financial backers choking on its own black hole?
One of the money market funds is now at 97 cents. Is this more derivatives going down a hole... With so much cash in money market funds, do you think they are at risk?
TIP is slowly going down hill. I bought some in Feb at 107 and have been pleasantly surprised with the yield. In seven months of monthly dividends, the annual yield is at 7.78%. Not bad for AAA gov bonds. Maybe somewhere in the government data banks, there is a real number on inflation?
Yankee Running Dog
Low ''Bernanke-Beta'' Investing: Procter & Gamble and Raytheon