kingofithaki

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    • Tue Jul 8th 15:05 PM
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      Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans?
      sorry reinko, only good tasting tuna get to be starxxxx...wow...let's see, you had your tonsils taken out in second grade and you missed out on multiplication and division...100 million home loans with avg value at 200k is 20 trillion...we have 11 trillion is loans outstanding...so are you suggesting that the average home will come down to 100k before people start wanting to buy homes again...where else are you finding this mystery 10 trillion in losses...??? sorry to disappoint the chaps who are looking to use basel 2 rules with FAS 157 to create the mother of all squeeze plays...but it aint happenin...where exactly are the 10 million people who will be looking for a place to stay going to find it in the next 1500 days...planet zenon ??? new warm bodies in search of a place to call their own...there really was no such thing as the great depression...in that it really was the great shift...from a rural semi nomadic existence to the urbanization we have today... from living your life within 50 miles of where you were born to the climbing of uncharted mountains in greenland today(sorry I have a hard time remembering how to spell nunuvaat...or what ever it is called). where the federal reserve system was helped out by the treasury which refused to issue currency unless the local banks signed into the fed system...and with it, the blow that killed everything was the collapse of the austrian/hapsburg financial system in 1931...what part of western europe is going the way of austria ??? wake up and smell the numbers. Dow breaks 20000 on January 19, 2010...the shorts will be short circuited in 2009. 11 trillions dollars in outstanding mortgages..let's take pimpko's most wished for mess...1 trillion in bad debt...down to zero..no payments...ok..so what is the remaining cash flow on the rest of the outstanding 10 trillion in mortgages..I'm sorry..I did not catch that...what you forgot to calculate that 90% of the loans are still paying even in that scenario...and what is the spread between cost of funds and collection...what was that...you don't know...well then, get out of the basement since your mom has your grilled cheese ready and it's getting cold...a SMALL percentage of loans are non performing...I've been investing in real estate for way too long...and unless the property is in an absolute warzone...most lenders are asking for more than $1.00(one dollar) when they sell these properties after foreclosure...if you know where I can find some $1.00 properties, I've got a bank account waiting to be drained...if you don't understand accounting, don't quote numbers out of context...the 65 trillion in CDS is forward 30 40 and up to 100 years...in the depression, how long did it take to get back to 90%+ par value...I'm sorry, what..you have never studied the HLOC numbers...and you are one of the many who quote the RTC as having cost 160 billion dollars when the actual GAO report shows around 85 billion ??? You keep buying those canned beans for the great mad max event...and the rest of us will buy out of the money options and watch as you sell back your gold for 300.00 in july of 2010...remember bubba..gold goes DOWN in value during economic downturns..it only goes up during the "sizzle" part of the publics fears...unless you are crossing some border after a revolution and need to convert it to another currency...well you can't eat gold...sorry to disappoint you...
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    • Sat Jun 14th 00:53 AM
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      Case for Abolishing the FHA and GSEs
      sorry to disappoint you but where do you get the idea that government intervention caused the push up in prices...fnma has been around for maybe just maybe a few years and markets have gone up and down along the way...obviously you subscribe to the matt lauer teleprompter service for your daily intake of information..perhaps you should look up the HOLC that carried the nation out of the economic tailspin caused by andrew mellon's insane insistence that any non fed financial institution was to be cut off. suspect you are also one of those folks who drank the kool aid and keeps parroting that the S&L crisis cost the taxpayer 160 billion...sorry to disappoint but the RTC number was less than 90 billion (GAO 96-123, pg 11). Government intervention actually cost nothing in the S&L crisis...when markets bounce back, the increase in tax revenue from stable market growth more than makes up for the previous investment in regrowth...by the way, the biggest problem in the market is not a few just over broke workers trying to stabilize the finances by owning a home...yes a few will overstretch, but most poorer working class citizens(75%) end up finding a way to make the mortgage payment....you would prefer that Jimmy Stewart had jumped and Potter got to rule Bedford Falls...you probably cried when darth vader threw your hero, Darth sidious, down the abyss to his death...poor chap...you probably were upset that dorothy's stupid dog pulled the damn curtain...did fnma or fha come up with the nina loans...praying that mr and mrs inflation would cover the obvious underwriting issues...you seem a bit of a misanthrope...are you related to my ex-wife's divorce attorney??? lives will be destroyed...please you just want the poor to pay for the road to drive your suv on...you are worried about the poor folks who might not actually be willing to work a second job to pay the mortgage...yeah right...I'm sure you have not missed one of those Big Bother sessions with those poor kids...what you ...oh never mind, it's too late and you are probably praying for detroit to file bankruptcy to be able to say "they" don't know how to manage a government...your white hood is showing...
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    • Wed Apr 23rd 22:14 PM
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      Crisis Indicators Continue to Cool
      most derivatives are broken out over enough years for this debate to be a non event. As the dollar gets yenized and is kept down, industry will find itself quickly snapping back, to the shock of those who have done a mark twain on the industrial base of the USA. With regulators giving out 60 day fix or be fixed letters to lenders, this problem will be short lived. By March 2009 this market gets back when demografix rebalance and the cost of heating northern homes sends people to the A/C belt(cal/n.mex/ariz/te... this question will be left behind. Remember how russia was never going to recover from 1998??? look up the original estimates of cost for the S&L crisis...$500 billion...then 250 billion....then the now parroted $160 billion...sorry but the real hard cost was less than $85 billion (GAO/AIMD 96-0123 RTC Financial statement report). And we survived the great depression, which gave us the marx brothers, wc fields, the three stooges and abbott and costello...so maybe things were not as bad as the history books led us to believe...this too shall pass...the derivatives are spread out over 30-50 years, as annuity calculations for pensions and insurance policies work around future liabilities, not present short term fluctuations...the true annual exposure is more in the range of 5-7 trillion...still dangerous...but not the massive number as against the 90 trillion in US capital assets...so sit back, open up a bottle of your favorite vice and count the days till we are overworked again...
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    • Thu Apr 17th 10:02 AM
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      Housing Starts Down, Consumer Prices Up
      inflation is not the problem so much as the disruption of the comparatives chain...how many hours of work does it take to get the goodies you want...when the cost of time..and that is all a wage is really, just some time dollars...I give you my human capital, you give me fiat certificates from the fed and I use them to get stuff I want...inflation as an issue is a joke...further, debt is not an issue except in term of the cost to service the debt...that the fed deficit(I like to call it capital market investment infusion) works out to maybe 50k per person with a cost 2 service of about 1,500/yr...about 125/mth...inflation hurts those who don't understand it exists and expect to have investment give you a return by being static...how many hours of work equals what return on my human capital invested...the real issue is the disconnect between the hours available to work and the fed certificates we are given and what we end up buying with it...oil could drop to $ 18/barrel in less than 36 mths...and all this will then be a waste of energy...till then people will make adjustments and life will go on...most stats are useless..why do we take samplings of items when barcodes give us real time information...the real estate numbers are samplings...why...we have real time numbers available..in the old days, when accounting was done by hand, and auditing was a big mess, sampling was needed..in our computerized world, why do we continue to take surveys and samplings...we have real time data, let's start using it
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    • Thu Apr 17th 09:25 AM
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      Doug Kass on Housing Predictions: An Update
      most charts are based on after the fact reviews of actualities, which can always be routed to create a non conclusive but visually purported connection. Real Estate has more to do with the herd mentality than most want to admit. The great myth is that people buy homes for current value...nonsense, people buy homes for future value. Is this a good school district, do I have to waste energy with security precautions because of crime, are the local gov't bureaucrats going to try to drive me crazy with insane useless rules, are the traffic patterns in the town going to allow me to get from point a to point b quickly, do my neighbors live the same lifestyle I do. California and Florida(along with the rest of the A/C belt) tend to have problems with growth in that the socioeconomic mixing of various historically non connected groups cripples the sense of community when new parties enter the fray from disparate areas around the country. The group think problem kicks in worse in Florida, which tends to draw from tired beaten down rust belt cities or over the top hyper growth hyper crash latin american countries. This creates extremes, where the growth is too large with luxuriation(i.e.-lazin... and when that fails or outgrows the sustainable demand, the rust belt mentality of the capital holders in Floriduh kicks in, helping to foster the same errors that led to the collapse of the rust belt in the first place. There is no velocity of capital in the rust belt, and that mind set is what holds down the rebirth. Floriduh does suffer from a lack of "pride" based(Hometown ego) large banks or any great universities. It also suffers from a lack of systematic small business growth designed to exponentially expand. California gets great benefit from the funnel effect of all the american jobs that have moved to asia. Overpriced moneycenter cities(NYC, Boston, SF, Chitown) will always seem to be on the verge of collapse when the financial markets take a breather and suddenly toto has pulled back the curtain, but as long as small town america expects conformity to a non american non dynamic existence, there will be people wanting to get away from the same old stale bread and run to hide in the big city. People predicted the end of the world as we know it under the "S & L crisis"(really the California and Texas Bailout plan) where there were quotes of $ 400B as being the probable long term cost, and the much misquoted $160B purported actual cost...the real hard money cost was less than $90 billion...and once the damage was done, the market kicked into gear, stabilized and went forward from there...this mess will last as long as the little banks refuse to drink the kool-aid and merge with the larger banx. This will be quick if they are smart enough to accept convertable prefereds. If not, between now and November 2010 there will be pain(in 2011, Basel 2 kills off the banx who did not play along)...but already in florida, the lenders have taken 50% baths to get inventory moving. Working class homes are for sale in Northern Tampabay for less than 75K again...where rents are about 750-900. In some cases, homes that need minor repair are up for less than $55k. The loan pool is in the 12 trillion dollar range nationally...even a 500B shave over three years is basically just a loss of the profits on the annual spread between cost of funds and yield on the performing portion of the paper held in the tranches. Not everyone in america will end up owning a home...at most we will get to 75% in the future. And nobody shut down the baby making factory twenty years ago...another 2 millions souls looking for a place to call their own...each year...there are those who suggest people will move to the rest of the sunbelt and leave florida hurting...how long before people realize that no one from the rust belt wants to live in the republic of nascar-ia. Dale is not the first word most babies say in buffalo. Look to second tier builders who had not geared up as much as the large players, they will survive, thrive and grow as the ego kicks in and they smell a chance to catch the upper rung. It's all about emotions...follow the PR campaigns and you shall see the window of opportunity...ask why the group that attacked countrywide(naca and others) is in bed with Paulson & co who helped create this naked shorting on derivatives...foolish mortals, yabin playd.
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    • Tue Apr 8th 10:10 AM
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      WaMu: Only for the Bravest of Investors
      urgh...can't wait to nov 2010 when basel2 tier1 rules get this phony loan problem over with...message to little banks...stop screaming that your grandpappy stole this bank fair and square and you aint lettin the big boys force you into being some executive vp...be smart...ask for convertable preferreds and hit the golf links so that the rest of us can get on with our lives
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