Bonanza36

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28 Comments

    • Tue Nov 11th 18:58 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      It's a Great Time to Be a Value Investor
      In 1929, the dumb money lost everything. In 1931 Smart Money went broke. It took until 1932 for the really Smart Money to go BK.

      All based on "value investing" .

      Where are we? 1929.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 29th 08:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Young Jeezy's 'The Recession': I Think We’ve Bottomed Out
      How many times is Terrance going to call a bottom. He has been so wrong so many times I have lost count.

      Terrance, don't give up your day job.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 16th 22:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AIG Bailout: Over to Congress
      So AIG turned down private equity two days ago and now gets a bailout at my expense?

      This is socialism that even FDR could not have conceived.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 16:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Calling a Bottom: It's Time To Party
      This writer can't even sign his own name. Maybe he is in the federal witness protection program.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 16:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Calling a Bottom: It's Time To Party
      Ha ha ha ha! Best laugh I have had all day.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 10:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has Berkshire Stopped Insuring Bank Deposits Above FDIC Limit?
      Wow, if this is true, it says WB has no faith in the financial system at all!
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 28th 17:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing and Financials: The Worst May Soon Be Over
      Mortgage Fraud up 42% accoriding to latest MARI numbers. Maybe we can just pretend the the market is getting better.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 20th 17:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solvency and Liquidity: Non-Identical Twins
      If you listen closely, you will hear the banks tell you that they have plenty of "liquidity". They never say they are "solvent".

      This is like me saying that I am liquid because I borrowed a $100,000 off my Visa card and put it in my checking account, while at the same time my assets are exceeded by my liabilities by a million dollars.

      I am insolvent, but liquid. I am hoping that my creditors are not smart enough to figure that out and come asking for their money back.

      This is where the banks are: they are praying for a miracle.

      I know lots of folks who are solvent but not liquid. Times are tough for them.

      I also know folks who have money in the bank but a negative net worth.

      Right now, you need a solid balance sheet and plenty of cash to survive, something the banks have lost sight of.

      The banks are "liquid" only because they have used Uncle Ben's pawn shop to hock their most toxic loans, but they are not solvent.

      We are simply putting off the day of reckoning when the banks are bailed out by taxpayers. Right now, they are just playing the game of "hide the sausage" and are hoping we don't notice.

      View article »
    • Mon Aug 18th 14:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Downey Financial is Not IndyMac
      DSL has a Texas Capital ratio of 125%.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 15th 17:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Believe the Lies: Ride the Bank Stocks Bull
      Downey's (DSL) Non Performing Assets (NPA) went from 7.8% of assets to nearly 16% in six months.

      There is $2BB in bad debt so far, most all in neg-am option ARMS. They have $860MM in equity and $734 MM in reserves. This gives you a Texas Ratio of 123%. Not good.

      What most do not realize is that for years these banks have been booking neg-am interest on an accrual, not cash basis. For Tom Brown, let me explain that in simple terms:

      Monthly neg-am interest accrues at the note rate, which was never collected. The borrower paid a lesser amount each month, and added the unpaid interest amount to the previous month's loan balance. The bank recognized the unpaid interest income as it accrued and it was booked as INCOME.

      When this loan goes bad, in addition to selling the collateral for MUCH LESS than the value of the original loan amount, all the years of the previously booked income must be REVERSED on the banks income statement.

      Forty percent of CFC's income was accrued, not paid, option ARM interest. Wait till that reversal gets recognized by BAC!

      So you see Tom Brown and sheeple, the banks not only lose on the balance sheet, but the income statement as well. Tell me again how their margins (operating income) will bail them out of this fuster cluck.

      So far all these banks have done well is play a good game of "hide the sausage", with the help of FASB who are allowing them another year to mark to market on off balance sheet items.

      WB has $122 BILLION in Option ARMS on the books. Mostly in Florida and Cali. Of the loans that are still actually paying, 72% are making only the minimum payment each month. They are not even paying towards principal. When these loans hit the 110% cap in the next few years, you will see wave 2 of this mess.

      disclosure: Long SKF, SRS
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 15th 09:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Believe the Lies: Ride the Bank Stocks Bull
      Ha ha, have you seen the swap rates? Why do we still have a TAF if the banks are healed? Why is bank borrowing at the Fed going up? Why does Wells Fargo change their definition of delinquent loans to make earnings look better? Why do banks rally ONLY on Fed intervention? Why do we need a bailout of FNM/FRE? Why is the FDIC calling back retired workers from the RTC era? Why do the banks keep raising capital with 40% dillution and tell us they do not need the capital? Why have banks written assets down 6% when the market tells us they are worth 22 cents? Why did Merrill have to finance 75% of the sale of their Senior CDO's with no recourse if they go down lower?

      I could go on, but you get my point.

      Sorry, I am in the mortgage capital markets and this is not over yet. Classic value trap. What evidence do you have that the banks can replace their earnings that have evaporated as their business models change to survive?

      I think I will follow Roubini. Even if he is only half right, we have another 1/2 trillion in write offs to go.

      Brown is a clown. He has called the bottom so many times I feel for his clients.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 09:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CANROYs Remain Attractive as Oil-Related Investments
      What does the OP think will happen to the Canroys after 2011? Convert to MLPs? Become a US corporation?

      What will happen to unit price and yield?
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 6th 20:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Should You Tap Your Heloc Before It's Frozen?
      I am in the mortgage capital markets. I don't need the money, but tapped 100% of the HELOC anyways.

      From my perspective, the credit crisis is getting worse, not better. When auction rate securities free up, and the financials can raise capital at something less that double digit yields, the I may pay down the Heloc.

      For the time being, having access to the funds is worth 5% and can easily match that cost of funds in today's market with energy trusts.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 3rd 13:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Bottom and Homebuilders: No Sign of Improvement
      I say we put Campos and Tom Brown (aka Larry Kudlow) in an UFC ring to duke this out.

      My money is on Campos.

      View article »
    • Sun Aug 3rd 13:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Can Go Right for the Financials? Quite a Bit, Actually
      "Are we changing the name of this web site from Seeking Alpha.com
      to Tom Brown Pumping the Financials everyday.com ???"

      Now thats funny!! My sentiment exactly
      View article »
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