Tom Lindmark

http://butthenwhat.blogspot.com/
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129 Comments

    • Thu Nov 13th 11:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Misguided Policies
      Thank you. That was a fine article. No pie in the sky plans just a rational analysis of the inevitable direction the economy is going to go.
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    • Sun Nov 9th 11:42 AM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices
      When we get back to historical affordability and price/rent ratios the backlog will be absorbed. Stop looking for sure to fail schemes to turn things around. Let housing prices find their natural level just like any other asset and then watch the market efficiently work. There are projected to be 1.5 million new households formed next year. The country is growing unlike many and that natural organic growth will provide the demand to absorb the supply over time.
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    • Sun Nov 2nd 11:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Worst Is Likely Behind Us
      Tough comments but probably accurate. The 10% growth figure since 1929 is simply playing with numbers. Pick the right low point and you can conjure up anything you want. Reality Check: The S&P has not grown over the last 10 years.
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    • Sun Nov 2nd 11:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bad News for Housing
      I've said elsewhere that I don't doubt that there are a lot of homeowners that are underwater. Unfortunately, no one has explained how they come up with numbers like 20%. What's the methodology and how far underwater are they?

      There are projected to be 1.5 million household formations in the country next year. These new households represent a new source of demand for housing. Don't forget that in a growing country like the U.S. it doesn't take long to replace lost demand.
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    • Sun Nov 2nd 11:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Update: Underwater Loans, O'Neil's Plans
      O'Neill's plan is clearly extreme but to the extent he's trying to get across the point that there is no free lunch and American's need to be more cautious, I applaud him.

      I would like to see the methodology that was employed in determining the number of homeowners that are underwater. I don't doubt the number is sizeable but I also think there is a fair amount of guesswork in arriving at the figure. Do you know how it was calculated?
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    • Wed Oct 22nd 13:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CRA and Fannie & Freddie: Betes Noires
      You might find this link of interest. query.nytimes.com/gst/...
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    • Wed Oct 22nd 12:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CRA and Fannie & Freddie: Betes Noires
      Pretty good article but I agree with the comments above that Fannie and Freddie don't get a pass on this one. One thought on your statement that the delinquencies in the later vintages occurred after F&F pulled back. A lot of the delinquencies that you see in the latest vintages of both subprime and Alt-A are refi's of older loans. The loans that were never going to work just got rolled from vintage to vintage until the game stopped. The original loan was made when F&F were fully involved.
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    • Wed Oct 22nd 12:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Southern California Housing Sales: Highest Since December '06
      You forgot two other glasses of cold water.

      First, the September sales jump is computed against a dismal September 2007 number. That's when sales imploded.

      Second, except for September 2007 numbers, the September report for this year is the worst for a September since 1996.



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    • Fri Oct 17th 16:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Vouchers Against Forclosures?
      Fabian, well said.

      Like every other plan to bailout homeowners this one lapses into picking winners and losers. The winners are those that made bad decisions either knowingly or unknowingly and the losers are the vast majority of taxpayers. Another group of losers are the future homebuyers that would benefit from lower priced homes. Just let the foreclosures wash through and buyers will emerge to pick up the empty houses.
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    • Tue Oct 7th 14:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Opportunity Staring Us in the Face
      Good advice. One further thought. If you are buying for investment purposes and have a somewhat long term horizon, prices now suggest you get into the market. If you can buy at 9 or 10 cap rates and generate close to double digit cash returns then you should move regardless of your price outlook. Looking for the absolute bottom is usually a fool's errand.
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    • Sun Sep 14th 13:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Case/Shiller Index: Are We Close to a Bottom?
      I have been in the camp that thought there were hopeful signs of a bottoming out at least in Phoenix. Then yesterday I attended with a group a home auction in Phoenix. We went with the intent of buying and buy we did. At prices between $32 and $50 a square foot. We were buying homes in areas in which the published median price is say around $180,000 for less than half of that.

      It was a great deal, we bought 12 houses and spent about $1.2 million. We are able to put tenants in these properties and get cash on cash returns of from 8.5% to 15%. Like I said, a great deal from our perspective but it sure put a new perspective on the market. It's terrible.

      Just one other observation. The auction was poorly attended and the bidding was sluggish at best.
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    • Sun Sep 14th 13:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      More on the Fannie/Freddie Heist
      While I am not a big fan of the Fan/Fred bailout, I do think it is important to get the numbers right and properly analyze the risk. While Fannie and Freddie had approximately $5.3 trillion in debt and mortgage guarantees outstanding, these liabilities were offset by more than that amount of assets. The extent to which the assets do not perform will determine the ultimate loss to the Treasury. Potentially, it could be quite profitable. Here is a link to a back of the envelope analysis I did and a reader's reply that goes more in depth. blog.metro-real-estate...
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    • Sun Sep 14th 12:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the High Home Ownership Rate Hurting Michigan?
      You have hit on the fallacy of a government policy of homeownership for everyone. Like any policy there are unintended consequences. One is that you tether people to property when in fact mobility is in their best interest. One of the great strengths of the U.S. economy has been labor mobility and we are in danger of losing that. I wrote an article several months ago on this subject. Here is a link and it contains a well written rebuttal to my ideas. blog.metro-real-estate...
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    • Thu Sep 11th 11:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Sales: Another Take On Modeling and Forecasting
      This is a link to an excellent article on modeling, the limits thereto and why one needs to approach models with care. www.nytimes.com/2008/0...
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    • Mon Sep 8th 12:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie and Freddie: 80% Dilution
      A minor technical point. Treasury did not advance any money to the GSE's with the agreement. If you read it you will see that the Treasury gets $1 billion of preferred and the warrants for 79.9% of thecompany in exchange for providing the facilities. Not to say that money won't be advanced just that none has been advanced so far.
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