freefall51

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    • Wed Nov 12th 20:29 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Contrarian Investing
      I cant help. I have to say it. The last thing that people need in this mad market is more Tupperware.
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    • Sun Nov 2nd 08:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Beginning a Mini Bull Run; Be Prepared for Another Dip
      There seems to be a pattern. But extrapolating a pattern into the future is deceptive. The past development was fueled by increasing population, technological advances and cheap energy most of the time. Limited availability of sufficient energy to fuel substantial growth- cheap or not - will just limit the growth. Peak oil does not go away and I am pessimistic about the available scale of alternative energies. We may plateau forever.
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    • Thu Oct 23rd 08:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold ETF Reaches One Dollar Per Tonne
      I would suspect GLD is sitting on a lot of gold inventory and even gold receivables that deflate rapidly. They may speculate that the price will come back anytime soon and hold, while selling now may potentially lead to losses.

      It is probably harder to actually move the gold than the price, since the gold trust cooperates with certain selected but unnamed partners to reddeem shares in baskets of 100 000 shares. How that process of redeeming works and what triggers it is not clear. At least it was at least not disclosed in GLD's last 10Q report.

      GLD seem to have a large liability of redeemable shares on their balance sheet, which also seems to be under balanced by the gold assets valued at their historical prices. On that basis the equity of this trust is negative with a strong tendency to deteriorate. There may be still some unrealized gains left, which are not on the books. To capture those GLD would have to hurry and sell. I wonder what will happen if gold prices further drop and the shareholders of GLD - remember that is a trust and not all gold - are heading for the exits. And there is limited access to the trust to redeem shares. But thats just me.
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    • Wed Oct 22nd 07:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Case for Shorting Long Dated U.S. Treasuries
      Good one.
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    • Sun Oct 19th 09:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Are Investors Returning to the Dollar?
      That would explain why Jim Rogers is shorting 30 year US Gov. bonds.
      He may see the influx of $$$ into treasuries unwind and bet those $$$ are going into stocks starting Nov. 1? The old fox is always a step ahead.

      Good insight, thanks.
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    • Fri Oct 17th 22:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Charts of the Day: Gold, and Baltic Dry Index
      Platinum, Silver and Palladium prices have been cut in half since spring. What is the rational to afford gold a different treatment?

      Target $ 500/ oz.
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    • Thu Oct 16th 18:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Has Significantly Outperformed: Can This Continue Indefinitely?
      I guess alajac expressed it elsewhere. It is not the trillions that are printed around the world. Sure that sounds scary. The core purpose of this stunt is to take (bad) subprime morgage debt off the balance sheet of banks and make the institutions solvent again or to buy equity in banks in order to spread confidence. This influx of liquidity should not to be conceived as a a gift or a freebie to anybody. The assets can be sold back over time, some may even turn into a profit. With some conservatism this may end up as a +/- zero sum game. Who would know that exactly now? It is a moot case to make a guess at this time. Better focus what is next on the way and that is economical contraction, ie deflation, ie falling gold prices.
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    • Thu Oct 16th 17:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold's Relationship with Real Estate
      @ Socialism,

      While I sympathize with your name, I cannot resist to note that GLD is 5 % down today. So much for store of value. Reminds me eerily to my former oil stocks. That makes excellent BEARS!
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    • Thu Oct 16th 00:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold's Relationship with Real Estate
      A Katz raises a very important point that I can relate to. Its is called denial.

      Every bubble is based on a good story, scarcity of gound fuels the housing bubble, peak oil fuels the oil bubble, printing $ fuels the gold bubble. People believe it must be that way until it isn't.

      I believe now that gold must come down if for no other reason than that it is still up like the last man standing. I am not a chartist but I know that a good upward price curve comes out of a consolidated base. For gold that was 6 years ago. Now we are in the 4th inning and the price curve is falling apart. There must be a fundamental reason for that. We will know in hindsight.

      I want to side with CHL. I believe he was a recent oil bear. I was in denial and got my butt kicked. This time I am listening. Short GLD.
      This is a mild Ponzi scheme anyway.



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    • Wed Oct 15th 19:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Countdown of Manipulated Gold Price Running Out
      This discussion reminds me to the peak oil discussion we had in spring. Everybody was jumping on the train with the longterm perspective that oil as a irreversibly consumable commodity goes up like crazy. Did not happen so fast. There were other issues in the foreground that caused oil to drop like a stone.

      I suspect something similar happens at this time with gold. Gold held about its value, but the GLD price curve looks exceedingly ugly and I would not bet it breaks to the upside. That does not take anything away from the longterm perspective of gold.

      So what is it? A surge of uncovered future contracts hitting the market and depressing prices?

      Yes a lot more money is being printed supporting a weaker $ , but the spending party is mostly over for the time being. Creditcards and mortgages are maxed out, house prices have not bottomed yet, consumer confidence in abysmal, lending standards and cost go up drastically. This is not about liquidity but solvency which goes to the hearth of credit worthiness of the consumer. That is deteriorating and limits spending especially for discretionaryand costly items like gold..

      I dont see why a economical contraction does not affect all asset classes. Last time we came out of a recession in 2002 gold had bottomed. I would not declare the goldprice at a bottom here.



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    • Wed Oct 15th 07:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bullion Shortage and Spot Prices Tell Two Different Gold Stories
      A point to the specific risk on paper gold and why people may think it is manipulated.

      Reference was made to GLD, SPDR Gold Trust that sells paper gold. The price of the share is supposed to track the price of a 1/10 oz bullion, ~ $84 a piece today. What do you get for your money if you buy GLD?

      I am reading from GLD’s 10 Q report ending June 30, 08:

      Gold investment and receivables is all there is on the asset side of the GLD balance sheet.

      Gold Assets/ Number of shares = $ 13.8 B/ 0.21 B Shares = $ 65.7/ Share. But you pay today ~ $82.50 /Share. Are you not shortchanged by 25 % + buying the paper instead of physical gold.

      Plus this trust has negative equity due to excessive redemption share liabilities, strongly deteriorating yoy and the buyer takes on all the credit and counter party risk of this trust.

      This all looks like a terrible deal to me. Looking at the price volume action of GLD today I sense there is a high volume shorting of GLD going on since Friday.

      The GLD price curve looks awful since it broke in Mar 08.

      I think alajac is right, when the hoi polloi believes it is common sense to buy gold, the smart money has already left the place.
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    • Wed Oct 15th 00:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
      Reference was made to GLD, SPDR Gold Trust that sells paper gold. The price of the share is supposed to track the price of a 1/10 oz bullion, ~ $84 a piece today. What do you get for your money if you buy GLD?

      I am taking from the 10 Q report ending June 30, 08:

      Gold investment and receivables is all there is on the asset side of the GLD balance sheet.

      Gold Assets/ Number of shares = $ 13.8 B/ 0.21 B Shares = $ 65.7/ Share. But you pay today ~ $82.50 /Share. Are you not shortchanged by 25 % + buying the paper instead of physical gold.

      Plus this trust has negative equity, strongly deteriorating yoy and the buyer takes on all the credit and counter party risk of this trust. Who would want that now?

      Is there not a strong case to short GLD? Looking at the price volume action of GLD today I sense there is a high volume shorting of GLD going on since last Friday.

      The GLD price curve looks horrible since it broke in Mar 08.

      What am I missing here?
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    • Mon Oct 13th 09:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Next Bubble?
      Something does not add up here. The price of gold seems to have topped out Jan 08 and it appears to gradually break down. There is still commodity unwinding going on which elevates the $ for another year or so, ie deflation. The customers are tapped out, credit cards are at the limits, the house prices down, the 401ks destroyed. Nobody is feeling rich. Lending practices will tighten no matter how much money supply there is. The christmas business is already in the tank, and jewelry is part of it. What else can you do with gold? Oh you can bury it in your backyard. In a situation like this the consumer will keep his hands on his wallet and not be willing to spend for discretionary stuff. There is no intrinsic value for gold. It is all supply and demand. There demand destruction now. Sounds familiar? If we are really in a recession/ depression gold will go all the way back to where it was in 2002, when we came out of the last recession.
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    • Mon Oct 6th 10:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Monday Outlook: Ascendant Fear
      The credit crisis has arrived at the insurance industry. Time to check if the default swaps really work. I am betting that the cardhouse is crashing in a couple of days. The only way to avert this is to have the countries all over the world riding for rescue. But they are not conditioned for that, as Germany has demonstrated over the weekend. This is not a normal bear. I am out but that was brutal.
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    • Sat Oct 4th 16:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Calling an Intermediate Bottom
      I cautiously tend to agree here. The sentiment could not be more awful at this time. Hard to find any positive comment today anywhere, like the end is near. Still, the feds are throwing al ton of money at the credit problems; the Europeans contemplate the same; the Brits are already more affirmative not to let banks fail; China still growing at a 10 % clip; noted also that oil was no longer leading the fall on Friday, some oil service cos ended positive;
      Great time to be a contrarian, when everything looks bleak and abysmal. Its got to be gut wrenching or it just does not work.
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