huangjin

Total Rating:
+2 / -5

266 Comments

    • Wed Nov 12th 11:08 AM | Rating: 0 -2
      Commented on:
      Obama's Green Obsession: More Harm Than Good?
      Great article. Too many of the comments miss the main point, which is that forcing the economy to change the structure of energy production will cause costs to increase and wages to fall, i.e. lower our standard of living. The article says nothing against free market alternative energy. It only dismisses backwards economic thinking on the part of many politicians, journalists, economists—and voters. Green energy plans from government will cause savings to drop, wages to drop, and energy costs to rise.

      Even in a strong economy, the plans are inane. But in the current environment, raising the cost of energy is a recipe for disaster, as it was also government price hikes in the 1930's which exteneded the Depression for years. Although pouring milk into the river and forcing people to build windmills doesn't appear the same, the economic effects are the same. Wasted labor, wasted capital, and higher costs.



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    • Fri Nov 7th 09:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China’s Manufacturing Crisis: The Real Story
      China's bad debts are in the banking system, not the government. They may suffer something similar to the S&L crisis, and they will blow through those reserves rapidly in order to protect their economy.

      The Chinese are in better shape overall because they are a people hungry for success and will do whatever it takes to succeed. Chinese debate how to get the economy moving, Americans debate how to save welfare and government spending.
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    • Thu Nov 6th 12:13 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      A Capitalist Reformation
      Healthcare is the most socialist industry in America, worse than education. Almost all healthcare prices are set based on Medicare, which sets prices based on the whims of bureaucrats. The only industry not covered by government? Cosmetic surgery, where costs have fallen over time. This isn't rocket science, but then again, a lot of people went to public school.
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    • Wed Nov 5th 09:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Challenges Facing Obama
      Get ready for Medicare cuts.
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    • Tue Nov 4th 12:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Selectively Bullish in Times Like These
      China's stock market and real estate prices point to a big credit bubble which popped. PMI is below 50. China's debt is hidden on the balance sheets of state banks. Although not external, the debt is large. Furthermore, the Chinese banking system does not allocate savings efficiently.

      I expect the nation will snap back rapidly, as it did in the 1990s, but there is a lot of malinvestment to be cleansed from the economy.
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    • Tue Nov 4th 11:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Coins Are in Short Supply, So Why Doesn't Their Price Rise?
      Fitzman:

      The only part of my comment directed towards your argument was the first, about gold coins having unique demand. To that end, this article by George Seglin is relevant.

      mises.org/story/3168
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    • Tue Nov 4th 10:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Coins Are in Short Supply, So Why Doesn't Their Price Rise?
      First, gold coins are a unique product. It is possible to see a shortage of gold coins but an overall decline in gold demand, perhaps because jewelry sales have fallen sharply.

      Second, credit isn't money, but it is part of the money supply and it relates to the velocity of money and demand for money. You don't have to take my word for it, just look at Japan's money creation for the past 18 years and then look at their inflation rate. If the monetary system uses the banking system to filter inflation, you can have a situation, like the one we are in, where banks refuse to lend. Their reserve ratios will climb higher and higher as the Fed pumps money.

      One can argue how long this deflation will last, and whether hyperinflation is around the corner. But right now, there is full on deflation, and my expectation is that we won't even have a chance of inflation until the economy recovers, several quarters from now. If there is a cultural shift away from debt, however, we could see deflation or very low inflation for several years. There's always a reason for market moves, either technical or fundamental. If you can't understand or explain why something is happening (conspiracy theories don't count), you are gambling, not investing.
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    • Mon Nov 3rd 09:29 AM | Rating: +1 -3
      Commented on:
      Bye-Bye Dividends
      Couple this argument with those that predict higher interest rates are on the way. Getting to 450 on the S&P 500 is quite easy under this scenario.
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    • Mon Nov 3rd 09:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Eric Lemieux: Decline in Gold Price Goes Against Every Theory
      Flies in the face of all theories...except the Austrian school, which explains the move precisely.
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    • Wed Oct 29th 13:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold: War of Attrition
      Bullion in one ounce size is a product with its own supply and demand. You are confusing S/D of one ounce coins with S/D for all gold. Usually they are the same, but right now, they are not. It is an anomaly and worth discussing, but it doesn't imply what you claim.
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    • Tue Oct 28th 09:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China Wants the U.S. Dollar to Drop Dead
      This article by Stratfor may be of interest:
      www.stratfor.com/weekl...

      I think many of the dollar bears do not understand the extent to which the U.S. government has used monetary and economic policy as a means to a geopolitical end and focus too heavily on just economics. The end of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency will have much greater negative implications for the U.S. government and conduct of foriegn policy, whereas in the longer-term, the U.S. would actually benefit economically because it would return to it's pre-WWII position of a mainly economic power. China, Russia and the EU want geopolitical power, but the U.S. will be free to enact an industrial policy which moves manufacturing from Europe and China to the U.S.

      The rise of Asia and Europe was done on the back of U.S. economic concessions aimed at creating strong allies to fight communism. An end of Bretton Woods is the end of the U.S. as the world's policeman, and the return, if it chooses to enact reforms, of the U.S. as the world's premier economic power—no doubt aided by massive exports of advanced weaponry to various powers that will soon need to pay for their own military defense. There's also a possibility that a right-wing government would pursue financial reforms along the lines of Swizterland, turning the nation into a heavily fortified tax haven. Once the U.S. is no longer obligated to dole out economic favors in return for political and military concessions, the room for economic action increases greatly.

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    • Tue Oct 21st 09:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Problem with Cap-and-Trade Offsets
      Cutting down trees and using them to build homes and furniture is good, it sequesters carbon. Also, trees stop absorbing carbon and start emitting carbon when they get old, so chopping down old trees and replanting forests is the way to go.

      Cap-and-trade is stupid though. I oppose all the greenhouse gas solutions because climate models make Wall Street derivative models look absolutely marvelous. But if we are going to get some form of garbage law, taxes might be best.
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    • Sun Oct 19th 10:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Are Investors Returning to the Dollar?
      I don't think investors are "returning to the dollar" in a positive sense of the word, although there certainly is some of that taking place. What is driving the rally, which started in July, is the closing of short U.S. dollar positions. Everything from explicitly short positions on the dollar, to implicitly short positions, such as long foreign equities, are unwinding. It's not just investors either. Corporations and governments borrowed in U.S. dollars and they are unwinding those positions or have halted new borrowing. All of which is bullish for the U.S. dollar in the short term.
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    • Thu Oct 16th 17:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      High U.S. Corporate Taxes Are a Myth
      Maybe you should talk to a corporate tax attorney or a corporate accountant. Corporations may pay little taxes to the Federal government, but they spend billions of dollars finding ways to make that possible. The easiest solution is to abolish taxes on corporations and free up a lot of mental energy for productive uses.
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    • Fri Oct 10th 09:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Financial Crisis Makes Oil a Great Hedge
      I live in the northeast and know several people who have switched to coal, wood pellets & natural gas. Demand for home heating oil will be down, permanently.
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