Dan Walker

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    • Sat Oct 18th 08:12 AM
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      Glimpsing a Return to Normal
      John, exercise your imagination. Give me three scenarios where long bonds will rise in price over the next twelve months. If you cannot live with any of those futures, tell me why bonds can't rise. (I know this is a loaded question, but you live in the world of the 'no BS crowd' and you can provide a valuable insight to your fellow traders in other markets here).
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    • Sat Oct 18th 07:37 AM
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      Charts of the Day: Gold, and Baltic Dry Index
      Any of you really look at that chart? (Or more importantly, compare it to a ten year chart?) You have a move down to the low from the first surge up, a nice initial push up off that low, and we are now in a protracted basing retracement. Unless you totally believe government statistics (in which case send me your bank account before the government takes it from you), this is the place to load the boat. As the e-wavers would put it, this is basing for the start of 3 of 3 which is the wet dream of futures traders everywhere. 3 of 3 is the rocket ride. I have been trying to buy the shiny yellow stuff and it cannot be had for anywhere near the price of futures. The central banks have shot their wad and can no longer BS delivery of metal; it is in short supply. The central banks have also practically discontinued the habit of lending gold which fed the physical demand when it was just limited to the 'gold bugs'. Now that it is not only the 'tinfoil hat crowd' who wants to hold shiny metal, there is not enough to go around. I wonder why they want to hold it with it dropping like a rock? i am being facetious. I really wonder what it is costing us taxpayers to make the futures LOOK like they are dropping like a rock.

      The gold price cycle is quite long and we are maybe close the the first third of this bull market which started in the early part of this century. The only thing that will invalidate this view is if physical metal trades below futures and under the current environment I am more likely to marry the pope than that happening.
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    • Sun Oct 12th 03:41 AM
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      What are McDonald's and Wal-Mart Telling Us?
      How about hedge funds liquidating to meet CDS payoffs which are looming?
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    • Sun Oct 12th 03:33 AM
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      The Coalition of the Ailing
      We have a coalition of the clueless here in the comment section. This is not about whether MS is a viable enterprise. This is about perception. Whether anyone will trade with them Tuesday. If no one will, they are toast. Liquidate and distribute the remains to the stock holders. Those are the realities of what is going on here. Their only worth is as an ongoing enterprise making deals.
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    • Sun Oct 12th 03:16 AM
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      The Devastating Week That Was
      Here is how significantly VIX impacted options; I had bought some GE calls at the onset of this decline and sold them at a profit with GE down in price due solely to the spike in VIX.
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    • Sat Oct 4th 07:07 AM
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      Options Trader: Friday Outlook - Too Little Too Late?
      Phillip, wake up and smell the cow patties. Dodd himself described this bailout as a turd with a marshmellow in the middle. He just made sure the marshmellow was larger.

      Of course the commercial paper market seized up. The biggest player in that market was Lehman. If you want to engineer a crisis to scare everyone into passing the biggest bailout in history, of course you want to first bail out FNM, FRE, and AIG and then let the principal CP dealer go bankrupt. It shuffles the pain down to main street to make them think that they should support this nonsense.

      Will this be it? Oh hell no. The CDS issue has not even been mentioned, California is about to ask for a bailout, and GM will have given the $25B we gave them to the unions by next March. Bailout part !! coming to a news outlet near you by early next year (if it takes that long).
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    • Sat Oct 4th 06:01 AM
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      Get Your Banking Crises Straight
      Paul, you may be pretty good when you get about 20 years under your belt. The difference between now and then is in 1872, there was no central bank to throw more credit at the problem. In the bad 'ol hard currency days, the panics were short, the assets went splat, and the idiots went broke. That difference is why we are going down now, and that is why you are comparing apples to Hondas. If you are jockeying for a job with the Fed, you sound like a shoe-in.
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    • Sat Oct 4th 05:31 AM
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      2 Steps to Protect Bank Deposits
      Question; we supposedly dumped the last of the industrial banks during the S&L crisis and I thought we had no more non-FDIC insured banks. Did some new ones sneak in during the last 15 years or were those just political promises in the late eighties?
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    • Sat Sep 27th 08:41 AM
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      O Bailout Package, Where Art Thou?
      "The credit defaults must be "monetized"&... Pass the pipe please, I need a hit after hearing that. Do you work for Bernanke, Paulson, or Goldman? The credit defaults impact securities which were created by and are now owned by corporations which are owned by stockholders who MUST now take the losses. I and others have proposed bailout alternatives which will neutralize these assets and take them off the front page AFTER insuring that these same stockholders take their losses for allowing the malfeasance of the executives they hired.

      As for a couple of other comments, the fact that equities and commodities have not made any significant craters in this last week speaks volumes. It is the banking sector which is in genuine panic mode. Of the two people shrieking the loudest that 'we have to DO something', Bernanke is chairman of the Fed, which is owned by the banks, and Paulson was CEO of Goldman who suddenly applied to take deposits when the fire got stoked too hot. Only the banking sector appears to be in panic mode and I notice even SKF closed down over 5 points on the day.

      Sure, we would all have to live off spam for the next 6 months, but I can almost believe we would be better off to sit on our hands and let the whole crooked banking cabal collapse; it will be one of best opportunities to rid ourselves of the Federal Reserve in 95 years. Fire Paulson, go back on the gold standard, and I bet I can have a community bank up and running in 6 months and I further bet there are another 20,000 people across the country who will do the same thing. Brand new banking system, no problems, no mega-banks, no concentration of power. Without mega-banks you can't have hedge funds (and before you get smug, Europe gets to go through all this next year) and without the Fed you are no longer running an economy based on debt. We get our country back. By 2016 we can have the old federal debt retired and use the new federal surplus to smooth out the business cycle which was one of the biggest arguments for creating this money-sucking leech (the Fed) in the first place.

      This is simply one of the more extreme scenarios which I could live with to get us out of this mess and it is certainly no more outlandish than "The credit defaults must be "monetized"&...
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    • Wed Sep 24th 08:12 AM
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      Protect Main St. First, But Give Away As Little As Possible to Wall St.
      Your theory is fine until you hit the part where Hank values the garbage he is offered..... He is asking us to trust him about what it is worth except he has no allegiance to us taxpayers he is asking to tax.
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    • Wed Sep 24th 07:57 AM
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      Where's the Bottom? Still Anybody's Guess
      Regrettably, I fear you may be right. As much as I decry fiat currency, as much as I would love to see a stake driven in the heart of the federal reserve, as much as I fear the proposed bailout will decimate the dollar and collapse bond prices, he fact remains that our economy is still in better shape than its compatriots, and we may, in fact, emerge from this "crisis" smelling like a rose in global comparison. This is about as depressing a scenario as can be imagined. There is no reason to get long, but neither is the risk on the short side worth the reward. I can envision a post-bailout scenario where equities trade in a range the next two years while the dollar grinds down incessantly. This is the worst case scenario where short the dollar is the only remedy but the dollar keeps popping up because of weakness overseas. About the only thing to do is jump on gold and hope the PPT gets distracted or runs out of money.
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    • Wed Sep 24th 07:27 AM
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      Bond Outlook in Light of the Treasury Plan
      Clarity;

      Lots of luck! I started sending out responses to this sham last Friday morning at 4am and between my 2 senators, Shelby, McCain and my congressman, only my congressman responded, and he basically said 'thank you for your concern but we gotta do something'. Their staffers (who are the only people who have time to read their email in this "crisis") did not even communicate the alternative I proposed.
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    • Wed Sep 24th 06:55 AM
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      Buffett Enters the Fray
      I seem to recall Buffett bought a sizeable stake in Salomon Brothers around 15 years ago. I don't seem to have seen their name in the news on the current difficulties. What does who Goldman decided to jump in bed with tell us? Probably more dirty laundry here than at Solli....
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    • Fri Sep 19th 10:45 AM
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      Today's Federal Action Will Alter the Face of Finance
      Christmas in September... I love it! How many times in your life do you get the almost risk free chance to make 500%? I am, of course, talking about shorting the long bond which I am about to do with gusto.
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    • Fri Sep 19th 10:36 AM
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      It's Time For a U.S. Sovereign Investment Fund
      Are you one of the idiots bill clinton raised? We are broke, spud. End of discussion.
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