winbully

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    • Fri May 16th 22:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: No, But This Time Really Is Different
      Good, well balanced discussion. I find what is happenning in China amazing.
      A similarity I do find find between 1997 SE Asia and China currently is the very large proportion of GDP from investment, 44% I read recently. I remember that the triggerring event of the late 90's Asian Contagion was an article in Foreign Affiars about how the 4 Tigers rapid economic growth was a nearly a 100% function of the high rate of investment rather than anything else. Can't remember the author, Krugman maybe?
      When the crisis hit it was trigerred by a withdrawal of foreign funds, and George Soros bets. Yes, China has little or no foreign denominated debt so it would have to be something else to trigger a dramatic decrease in investment. They do have massive external capital flows resulting from their somewhat fixed exchange rate,but I don't claim to understand their nuetralization actions.
      Just something I've been mulling on.
      View article »
    • Fri May 16th 21:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wind: The Powerful Anti-Commodity
      A play I like is KHD.TO . Canadian Hydro, which despite the name is 70% wind generation with the balance being Hydro and Biomass. Looks expensive at about 50X this years earnings of 11 cents but cheaper on EV/Ebitda with rapid and accelerating growth. It's a good environment in Canada for wind as my province and a few others have committed to carbon free grids in the near future, and solar isn't as desirable. Generally in Canada, electricity distribution, but not necessarily production, is controlled by government owned corps. You can see a good intro in their quarterly at
      www.canhydro.com/pdf/F...
      Cheers
      View article »
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