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89 Comments
Bernanke, Paulson and Bair Testify - But Can We Get a Witness?
It's one thing to have "some sense of the pain and heartache" of the American homeowner.
It's quite another to provide an adequate SOLUTION:
www.housingwire.com/20.../
Once again, never mind the facts.
The Economics and Ethics of Mortgage Default
They're NOT... NOT reducing principal. They're offering- in a MINORITY of cases- a principal forbearance.
Two different scenarios.
General Motors Bailout: Consider Other Alternatives
You could have begun the article with this quote. Why is everyone in such a hurry to "fix" these issues, which have been brewing for decades?
[Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, one of the bill's sponsors.]
She appears to be a good-hearted, well-meaning person, but she is completely clueless on issues regarding the economy.
It's been said that average housing prices are too high relative to average incomes.
The same can be said for automobiles.
The strain that an average car payment places on lower-to-middle income households is steep. While the cost of fuel has backed off significantly (temporarily?), the percentage of net income absorbed by auto-related costs is extraordinary... and unsustainable.
We simply cannot afford cars as they are priced now.
Now, to the hybrid issue...
60% of our electricity is produced by coal-burning plants. "Plugging in" every night will increase that amount substantially. Is this acceptable?
Furthermore, we already see brownouts in major cities when temperatures rise. Will the electrical infrastructure support a massive shift to electric cars?
On (pseudo-) environmentalism: Did you happen to see the 60 Minutes feature on computer disposal? Will China also import our cast-off car batteries in the future?
Whether it's housing, the Big Three or alternative energy, we all seem in a hurry to "fix' things, but we don't seem to be in the mood to think these things through before we act. Not one of these problems will be solved both quickly and effectively. We need to choose which adverb we want to stamp on our "solutions."
Why Obama Should Not Choose Summers as Treasury Secretary
I see this as a good thing. Ignorant members of Congress need to be revealed for who they are.
It's been hard to decide if our leaders are that dim-witted, or if they're simply pathological liars who will say anything to pacify the masses while protecting the special interest groups.
Was Volcker charismatic?
Frankly, we need Dr. House, not Doogie Howser.
The 28-33% Mortgage Payment Rule: Confronting Reality
31% of GROSS income on a house payment?
Do the math on that. Take taxes/ss out and see what the REAL DTI is.
The "Help for Homeowners" plan pegs the front-end ratio at 34%
That's CRAZY.
What's even more absurd is the percentage of income people spend just to own a car. Trucks, even worse.
The average American's budget is a mess, and until that clears up, no amount of "streamlined"... modifications is going to help.
Stop the Bail-Outs, I Want to Get Off
They voted against it because so many voters, like me, bombarded our representatives with calls, letters and e-mails urging them to vote against it.
Contrary to your comment, this wasn't about being "Only too happy to play game of chicken with the global economy."
While i can only speak for myself as to why, I expected that the feds would piss away this money on things that wouldn't "help."
They always... ALWAYS do.
It was clear in the original proposal that their intention was to limit/completely eliminate any oversight. And with the quality and caliber of the people we have in Washington, oversight means very little, anyway.
The second time around, the ill-informed, ignorant reps voted for the bill.
They sold this plan much like they sold the war in Iraq, only faster.
And now, we see the how well that's gone.
Yes, the people in our state are hoping for a bailout. What they don't seem to realize is that bailout or no, we're STILL going to lose a LOT more jobs in the auto industry and by extension, so will many others who think they are safe.
I wonder if the buggy whip industry responded similarly.
Here again, bailout or no, those jobs are going away.
You look at Delphi- they slashed their workforce, re-wrote their contracts, and replaced many of the previous workers with people who were willing to do the work for $14/hr. And there were THRONGS of people lined up for those jobs.
I believe that the Big 3 should follow suit.
To do otherwise is simply to waste more money, and prolong agony on the route to the same end result.
I vote no bailout again.
And I'm sure my rep will vote the other way.
Again.
Meltdown: State and Local Governments Falling Short
Not only do I prefer a MUCH smaller government, I'd like to shift towards a system where users actually PAY for services.
My state began substantially raising user fees for non-essential services. While I'm paying significantly more for some of these things now, I prefer it that way. Let people vote with their dollars. If certain programs don't get enough "votes" to support the services, let them fail.
The Humpty Dumpty Economy
What's ironic is that in many cases, homeowners would be better served by the mod they can get on a case-by-case basis than the "streamlined"... terms.
[In many cases, dual income families may decide to eliminate one job altogether as reduced mortgage payments combined with lower child care and other work related expenses will likely exceed the after-tax value of the lost paycheck.]
I see this as a good thing. Too many households have one member stuck in a dead-end job so they can pay for their "stuff." The mathemactics of that second job quite often made little sense on a net-after-all-costs basis. If we see a shift to parents spending more time with their children and less money on useless crap, this is a positive, unintended consequence.
The Underwhelming Frannie Loan-Mod Plan
The servicing business makes about as much sense in this environment as selling Hummers.
When "nobody" was defaulting, it was great. But now that the business requires real work, there's not enough revenue to adequately staff, much less properly process the files.
If investors become willing to pay more in servicing fees, then the problem will be adequately addressed.
Meanwhile, they'd seen just exactly how their money HAS been managed over the last few years, I think they might have a stroke.
Fed Balks at Releasing Toxic Waste Details
I'm not a lawyer, but the Fed is NOT a government agency. So, is it even subject to FOIA?
Navigating the Foreclosed Property Market
In talking to REO asset managers, you might find a slightly different story.
While the banks might be motivated to sell their inventory, like their bad paper, they may not be motivated to sell at a price that's worth paying.
The Housing Solution No One Wants to Hear
[Buyers can take over with no money down after going through the same rigors of underwriting as buyers do today. You now have people capable of paying.]
A big part of the rap on homeowners in default was that they "have no skin in the game."
[Sellers, or those unable to continue, will have save their credit, thereby allowing them back in the game once they regain their financial footing. ]
Are you telling me that your idea involves NO principal writedown?
Who in their right mind would assume a loan that exceeds the value of the home?
And if in fact there is a write-down, then the seller's is NOT going to save their credit, as it will be reflected on their report.
TC, I normally enjoy your comments very much, but who, exactly, will buy these homes? Supply exceeds demand, and home ownership rates are still irrationally high.
Rehab with intent to re-sell is a different game than rehabbing to rent. Converting a fix-n-flip to a rental is a PAINFUL experience, mostly in the pocketbook.
The Reagan Counterrevolution
[attitudes like yours, based on maintaining the Wall Street stranglehold on the wealth of this country was most likely the main reason Obama was elected in the first place.]
What I find interesting is that his campaign was heavily funded by Wall Street.
It's anybody's guess what he's going to do.
It Might Be Impossible to Stop the Decline of Housing Prices
This is not the key, not at all.
Declining housing prices are a SYMPTOM, not a cause.
And despite the decline, housing prices are still too high relative to average income levels.
In addition to the already-high surplus housing levels which you mentioned, there's still more to come. Homeownership levels were artificially high, and even those "at the margin" borrowers who've managed so far will stumble when the forces of a weak economy and the real cost of homeownership collide.
Your conclusion is correct, though- there is nothing we can do to DIRECTLY bolster home prices. And all of the real solutions to the underlying fundamentals are going to take a long time to show results.
Of course, this assumes that the jackasses in Washington can pry themselves away from the idea of short-term "fixes."
Bad News for Housing
So... do you want to be the first person to assume a loan on an underwater property?