yuman

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    • Wed Aug 27th 16:13 PM
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      Commented on:
      The Reign of Uncertainty in Financial Markets
      'Someone is going to have to “own up” to this pain and provide a map for getting through it.'
      Are we praying for a visible hand here? If you conclude that the market forces are ineffective, this is more profound than uncertainty. Then we need to identify the root cause for the inefficiency of the markets.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 4th 02:40 AM
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      Commented on:
      Investment Strategies in These Times of Transition
      Mr Mason,
      In the penultimate paragraph, you mentioned two foundations for the next expansion: financial stabilization and alternative energy. I wonder about the possibility and timeframe of their coming about. Given the currently popular demand side policies, the are not foreseeable. Are we talking about 5 years, 10, or 20? What does it take for the US government to make a policy shift?
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 00:35 AM
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      Commented on:
      Higher Food Prices Bane of Farmers, Boon to Agriculture ETFs
      Reticon,
      By double top, I assume you mean 43 for DBA. Chartists are like weathermen. One sees double top, another sees support at 34, still another sees 35. Today it broke the 200-day moving average, which is supposedly bearish.
      On the fundamental side, the cost of production, energy, fertilizer and seeds, have gone up compared to last year. The demand only increases. Unless you predict a bumper crop, the bull won't die.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 22nd 15:02 PM
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      Commented on:
      Asset Class Correlations
      DrBagel,
      I think 10-Yr treasuries in the tables are measured in price, not yield. The dollar drops with short terms rates, while gold rises (-0.64), so do bond prices.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 22nd 13:57 PM
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      Commented on:
      Why Doesn't the CPI Seem More Like Real Life?
      Is PPI plutocratic then since it is not associated with households?
      View article »
    • Mon Jul 21st 14:12 PM
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      Federal Reserve Operations: A Six-Month Review
      A great article indeed.
      I have a gap in understanding M2 growth related to inflation, however. The article quotes M2 growth data:
      5.5%, 07Q4
      6.8%, February 2008
      7.1%, March
      6.5%, April 2008
      6.4%, MAy 2008
      6.0%, June 2008
      Then in the last paragraph, it concludes that this "points to a rate of inflation of around 4%". Is this prediction from some quantitative model or rule? What is the time lag from M2 growth to PPI/CPI?
      View article »
    • Mon Jul 21st 13:00 PM
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      Commented on:
      Are Global Stock Markets Dancing to the Same Tune?
      The ideas are vague and analysis superficial. The table doesn't show anything definitive; it is qualitative at best. Look, US down 13%, Brazil up 4 % in USD terms. Is this decoupled, or dancing to the same tune?
      There are statistical methods for calculating covariances and time lags. It is hard to tell a complex story with English verbage and tables.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 20th 18:41 PM
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      Commented on:
      Protecting Your Wealth and Profit During the 2008 Crash
      The HUI against DJI chart is a case of confirmatory bias: yr 2000 happened to be a bottom for gold and peak for DJ. We can't assert that this selected period is typical. If you bought gold stock in 1990 and hold until 2001, you would have lost money. See the chart covering 1986-present finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...=^DJI.
      Fundamentally, I don't know what drives gold prices. In the long term, gold has seriously underperformed DJ.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 20th 13:52 PM
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      Commented on:
      Gold's Finest Hour: How to Buy Now
      This puzzles me a great deal and I beg for some explanation. There seem to be arguments for gold everywhere and every economic and financial factor has been used by gold bulls. I don't remember seeing a gold bear article. Inflation is said to be good for gold. But I don't see proof presented for that, or a correlation between CPI and gold price. I am afraid that during deflation, we will hear that deflation boosts gold prices and will even be shown charts proving that point. Weak dollar, strong euro of necessity, is said to be good for gold. Now in the current article, we hear:
      "gold prices will rally even higher as investors dump what's perceived to be the ultimate king of fiat currencies (euro)." This is odd since it means that strong dollar boosts gold. I also heard that credit crises, which is deflationary, boosts gold. It's also quite convincing that prosperity boosts gold. Any factor, in either the positive or the negative direction, boosts gold. If I believe what I read about gold, any change boosts gold, so does stability. Are the gold bulls nuts?
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 15th 19:13 PM
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      Commented on:
      Calling Today A Short-Term Bottom for Financials
      I'd want to see a W formation as a confirmation of a bottom.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 13th 18:04 PM
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      Is Gold a Good Investment During the Credit Crunch?
      This article is half finished. It discredited two myths about gold prices: interest rate spread and bank failures with historical data. So we learned that there no correlation between gold that those factors.
      But the article jumps to another myth without proof: "there is only one main reason why people should hold gold and that is inflation. "
      Isn't it a simple data gathering and presentation to superimpose inflation data, CPI/PPI or M2 over gold prices?
      Has anyone seen or constructed such a chart to establish the gold/inflation relationship? Without the data, we are running the risk of buying another myth.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 13th 00:14 AM
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      Commented on:
      Dollar Hurt by Geopolitical Concerns and High Oil
      How can Oil prices are drive the currency market? For example, oil pushes up AUD? Suppose OPEC cuts supply to bump up prices, how would that drive up AUD/USD?

      Let's consider OIL/USD, OIL/AUD and AUD/USD. SImple math gives
      (OIL/USD)/(AUD/USD) = OIL/AUD
      This relationship ensures that (OIL/USD) and (AUD/USD) moves in the same direction to maintain reasonable OIL/AUD. If we have to find a driver, I'd say that the larger drives the smaller, in terms of trading volume or.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 9th 02:30 AM
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      Three Themes I'm Tracking for Signs of a Reversal
      Historically in the past 30 years, the trend reversal of financials and the general market have been in sync. Financials don't serve as an early warning for reversals.
      Comparing the stock charts with MZM history, I notice that dropping growth of money precedes reversals. In years 2002 and 2003, the money growth rate dropped from 20% to 5%, foretelling a reversal in March 2003. Financials surged 30% in the following 12 months.
      View article »
    • Mon Jul 7th 00:19 AM
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      Commented on:
      Gold's Golden Run All Set to Continue
      Sorry. I meant
      I see no consistency.
      View article »
    • Mon Jul 7th 00:17 AM
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      Commented on:
      Gold's Golden Run All Set to Continue
      This article is totally incoherent. Stockerati sounds like a foolish gold peddler who doesn't care about data, while claiming to be "the data-driven person I am". What a joke.

      Stockerati asserts:
      During times of inflation or recession in the economy, Gold prices always sky-rocket.

      You should have taken a look at a historical gold price chart and line it up with recession and inflation to see if there is any correlation. I see consistency.

      The 200 YEAR DOW/GOLD Ratio is particularly misleading. The positive-sloped green band actually means the in the period, gold underperformed DOW except when the line dipped outside the band briefly for a few times.

      I believe gold will go up, but not for the reasons the author made up.
      View article »