Marcus Aurelius

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    • Tue Nov 25th 14:31 PM
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      Demonic Short Sellers
      Same is true with almost any form of financial instrument. A person goes short on a particular item and then feeds rumors to the media, if the media is gullible enough the stories get out and the shorter makes money.

      Any financial instrument can be used for legitimate business financial practices or for rank speculation. Heck even the simple and straight-forward practice of buying stock with cash and holding it until the price goes up can be reduced to rank speculation. The difference being most people understand the practice.
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    • Tue Nov 25th 12:20 PM
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      Demonic Short Sellers
      A lot of people talk about the evil short trade and those who engage in them. However, many people see derivatives as a speculative game where you roll the dice and hope your numbers turn up, rather than a tool traders and institutions use to mitigate risk.

      I have a basic grasp of derivatives namely options and futures. When studying up on them I noted a very strong resemblance of puts to my auto insurance policy. In both cases I pay a premium for a time limited policy. In the case of my auto policy if a deer jumps out and totals my car I sell the car at its pre-wreck value to the insurance company, if I have a stock and it crashes then I sell the puts and at least get something back.
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    • Tue Nov 25th 12:04 PM
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      How Low Can Crude Oil and Gas Go?
      I too suspect CL has overshot its sustainable low. I saw some data the other day giving figures for what petroleum producing nations need to make producing oil pay or pay for the nation. Saudia Arabia's threshold was about $50.00/barrel. The UAE was at $20.00/barrel and other nations (e.g. Russia and Iran don't recall seeing Venezuela on the list) were up at $70 and even higher.

      Ex-Patriates in the Middle East are now worried their host nations will start taxing their incomes. Two events would typically trigger such thoughts in the governments of the Middle East weak dollar & low oil prices.

      I expect CL to go sideways for a month maybe two months and then rise again to meet the summer driving season. However, I do not expect prices to approach last summer's highs, unless of course, some sort of major disaster (natural or otherwise) hits the energy production chain.
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    • Tue Nov 18th 11:43 AM
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      Alcohol Can Be a Gas: Debunking Myths About Ethanol
      A lot of ethanol opponents are not so much against ethanol, they are against subsidies and capricious mandates.

      I have an E85 truck but have been burning E10 or E0 (when I can find it) because I ran the numbers and found I need about a 25% premium for the ethanol cents per mile to match the E10/E0 cents per mile and that does not factor in the pain in the...regarding reduced range and the scarcity of gas stations carrying E85.

      Ethanol has a place in our energy supply, welfanol does not.
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    • Tue Oct 28th 14:56 PM
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      14 Beaten-Up Financials That Now Offer Real Value
      A lot of people mocked Cam back in July, when he said Oil would be at $100.00 before it would be $150.
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    • Fri Oct 24th 10:53 AM
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      OPEC to Cut Production at Friday Meeting, but Will Prices React?
      OPEC is a cartel and they collude, how are we going to stop that?

      Anyway, I think oil is getting close to finding a bottom, some analysts think with or without OPEC cutbacks, oil is overshooting its bottom right now and $70.00/barrel is about equilibrium. However, with the all the FUD about the future & the global economy, I expect to see demand die off and bring down oil prices.

      The last time gasoline was at or under $1.00/gallon was when the Southeast Asian currency meltdown was underway.
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    • Tue Oct 21st 14:30 PM
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      The Return of Lending: Still Distant
      moonbat1775, that is what scares me the most in all of this the pressure to throttle the credit markets by regulation is going to be very strong. I work in an industry impacted by the last regulatory overreaction and it extends what should be one perhaps two days worth of work into a week's worth.
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    • Tue Oct 21st 12:55 PM
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      The Return of Lending: Still Distant
      Hmmmm,

      I think this is where the problem lays. The credit industry got so caught up in schemes far removed from what credit is, the focus shifted from the foundation of credit to the top level suites.

      When the focus shifted from the foundation to the penthouse the foundation suffered and as a result the penthouse is now crashing down. Problem is, before we can restore the foundation we have the clear the mangled remains of the penthouse.

      Credit transformed itself from a means of building wealth (i.e. only take out loans when you are reasonably certain your earnings can pay back the loan and its costs) to being wealth in and of itself. How many of us appeared wealthy but in the end are no better than Carey & Daniels in Dumb and Dumber?
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    • Fri Oct 17th 11:26 AM
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      How Does the Financial Crisis Affect the Peak Oil Thesis?
      Dabu, good analysis. Over the last four months or so I felt oil was in its normal routine of rising over the summer and it would pull back, the only surprise was it held its peak longer than what I expected. In years past I would see the peak hit in late May early June and subside from there (absent any system shocks). No doubt about it, oil is headed upward but between Point Now and Point Years from now there are bound to be ups and downs in between. Friends were expecting $5.00 gas this last summer and I told them it wasn't happening this summer, but I believe gas will make a serious run for $5.00/gallon next summer.
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    • Fri Oct 10th 15:44 PM
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      Oil Price: $100 Before $150 - But $200 Before $50
      Now they are under $80.00/barrel, with the economic meltdown ongoing I wonder if you stand by the $200 before $50 part?
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    • Tue Oct 7th 12:10 PM
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      Real Estate Bottom - or Prelude to a Drop?
      A few things I have been hearing for sometime and continue to hear.

      The main group being foreclosed on are not families but speculators. People who decided to develop ten too many condo developments or built yet another office park. No doubt, there are families being foreclosed on but the lion share of foreclosures is on over-leveraged speculators.

      I am looking to convert a loan that just transitioned from a construction to a one year ARM (I have a real heckuva rate on it too) to a 30 year fixed. So, I am talking with bankers on a regular basis (still some work to do on our project) and they tell me in our market property values are holding on okay and in fact varies in our locality (northeast WI). Of course, the couple divorcing across the road may sink your property value but that applies in good times too. I have heard starter homes are still moving well around here, that is properties with values up to $150,000 or so. I have seen more expensive houses site for years.

      Of course they can go lower, but the money owed on a house is strong boundary. My uncle has an extra house in Orlando and is renting it right now rather than selling it because of market conditions.

      Back in the bubble days I would hear story after story about people in the hotspots mentioned doubling their money on a property after one year of holding the property, in contrast a banker friend of mine informs me we can expect about 4% appreciation around here (and she told me back in the bubble days). Tortoise vs. hare.
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    • Tue Aug 19th 11:37 AM
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      Events in Russia Could Push U.S. Toward a Clearer Energy Policy
      AlexS,

      If you want something resembling numbers go & read John Ryden at www.examiner.com/x-325...

      He wrote an article here some months ago on Oshkosh Truck's new electric drive truck and the ultra-capacitor technology the trucks have. He analyzed the energy plans of both candidates with numbers and finds they are long on promise but short on delivery.
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    • Fri Aug 15th 19:40 PM
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      Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30
      Yeah the report abuse link is sorely needed here and it isn't for Jason's article its for the thoughtless abusive comments.

      Cam Hui, as oil was at its top wrote an article here titled Oil $100 before $150, but $200 before $50. At the time, oil was hitting $147.00/barrel.

      I am not as optimistic (I don't have any position other tahn as a consumer of its derivatives) as Jason is, I don't think oil will be at $30.00/barrel ever again but I believe it has more downside to it.

      Fundamentally, Jason is correct, the oil producers do not have free reign to raise prices. Raise prices too much and you spur innovation to find other energy sources. Demand is being destroyed for a number of reasons. Many people say it is because the economy is tanking, but what causes what? I suspect high energy prices are causing the economy to tank rather than the economy causing oil prices to tank.
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    • Fri Aug 8th 11:08 AM
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      Getting More Constructive on Crude Oil
      You did call the recent top off, very good! I recall your prediction that oil would hit $100 before $150, very nervy considering oil was trading in the mid to upper $140s at the time.
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    • Tue Jul 29th 16:23 PM
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      Record Decline in Driving, Record Level of Conservation
      Creative destruction is going on, it just takes a little more time for it to materialize. I am reading on all sorts of incremental breakthroughs on new ways to obtain fuel (LS9's diesel excreting microbe) and to use energy more efficiently (Michelle Malkin notes a Purdue breakthrough on LED light production).

      Oil based energy system did not spring onto the scene full-fledged overnight it evolved into what it is today and evolution is a slow sometimes painful process.
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