Greg Weston
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Latest Comments106 Comments
Crystal River’s Q2 Write-Downs Could Bankrupt the Company
I made my short call at 3.50, and the stock is now around 50 cents, down 85% in less than 5 months.
Salesforce Likely To Be Below $15 By Year's End
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
Obviously solar is not as attractive during a near depression and with energy prices dropping and credit tight for those with less than sterling credit. Most of the solar plays I follow have wisely scaled down, but have not stopped growing. They are still going forward with heavy R&D expenses, which is fat that can be trimmed in an exteme crisis.
However, long term interest rates are still low for (1) the US Gov, all the other big Western nations, and nearly all U.S. states (2) monopoly utility companies in the US and Europe (3) large non-profit organizations like universities, museums, and foundations. And they have no trouble getting financing and are all significant solar buyers.
For these buyes, record and near-record low interest rates mean financed investments in solar power will pay off. Lower prices are a good thing to stimulate demand.
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
I don't try to be perfect with timing. I try to buy XGM on days it hits new lows.
As Solar Plummets, Stocks Drop Below Book Value
great comment. can you provide some additional details? like where you are located, whether your calculations include tax incentives, etc.
China Solar Companies Slowing Production
Does not seem like a bad situation to me. Click on my name for my more bullish take on solar.
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
However I don't think there will be a bailout of GM until after Obama is sworn in. As bad as its cash crunch is now, it can easily last until then. So these notes may go lower in the intervening period.
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
AIG, a much less important company in the eyes of the average voter has now Hoovered up $120 billion. If you forced me to guess, I think we'll see a recapitalization of GM by via a roughly $60 billion investment from TARP in exchange for 79.9% of the resulting common stock.
This would not actually cost taxpayers $60 billion, since many of GM's obligations would revert to the government anyway in the event of a bankruptcy, via the PBGC, medicare and medicaid, unemployment, food stamps, FDIC payments to Midwestern banks that GM would bring down with it, GM stockholders and bondholders deducting losses from their capital gains taxes, etc.
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
There are two issues with coal, CO2 which is not toxic but causes global warming, and second a large number of other toxic pollutants. There is slow but study progress on the toxic pollutants issue, but coal plants are still by far the biggest source of mercury pollution.
And while natural gas is less dirty than coal for power generation, there is still the CO2 issue. Further, the major source for natural gas in Europe is Russia, which has repeatedly shown its willingness to leverage its CO2 supplies against countries that oppose its foreign policies. This is why Germany, which is in particular vulnerable to this type of economic blackmail, is such a big subsidizer of solar despite its relative lack of sunlight.
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
That said, I don't mean to say that JASO is a bad play right now, just inferior to the other companies I mentioned.
Non-I:
I disagree that GM will be allowed to file for bankruptcy. While the job losses could be minimized with a quick bankruptcy and subsequent bailout, the huge credit losses to banks, retail investors, mutual funds, and GM's gigantic supplier base would still occur. Its creditors, quite rationally, have been willing to extend payment dates knowing that they will recover little in bankruptcy.
The best case scenario here is really amazing. If GM gets enough money for AAA rating, XGM will go ABOVE par because of the 7.75% coupon, to something in the 28-31 range. And why not? If the feds are the major shareholder, it makes sense that this debt will become among the safest of all corporate debt.
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
Thank you for the corrections. I meant electronic manufacturing demand is _elastic_, which is clear from the context, and I did indeed confuse the names of those companies. I will email SA corrections later.
Wez, XGM are senior unsecured notes. It know it is odd for notes to trade on stock exchanges, but these were aimed at retail investors. GM needed to leave no source of borrowing unturned.
Expecting Epic Gains in Gold Miners