Carl Martin

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    • Mon Oct 6th 05:57 AM
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      People Still Need to Eat: Fertilizer Stocks Oversold
      The paragraph about Canaccord Adams is bizarre at best, and simply totally inaccurate, or perhaps dishonest at the worst. First of all, I assume the author meant bearish, not bullish as written, in regards to which "camp they have now joined." Was that just a typo, or was that a "Freudian Slip," when what one hand prints the truth, while the other hand prints what is false, and the author's mind can't see it and correct it, before readers see the lie. We will never know, as the true author is hiding behind the FP Trading Desk. For those who don't already know, Keith Carpenter was the most bullish professional analyst on Potash Corp. If he has in fact changed his evaluation, then that is very significant indeed. However, his previous evaluations were supposed to be based upon earnings estimates, not stock market activity. The article implys that Keith Carpenter is now basing his earnings target on much lower earnings. In reality, it seems like "he" is doing just the opposite. He "apparently" is no longer basing his stock price target on earnings. Instead, he is "apparently" basing his stock price target on the very real ongoing fear and deterioration in the stock markets. I wonder what measurement tool "he" is using? Or is he just being used by the author for questionable purposes? Why isn't he holding on to his previous earnings and stock price estimates, and just saying that the on going market activities will likely take the share price all over the place, but mostly downward at least short term? In other words, it will take some time to get back to fundamentals. Why would a professional suddenly become such an amateur? I wonder what Keith Carpenter would think about this article? I also wonder what you think? And how about the editors at SA???
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    • Sat Oct 4th 06:48 AM
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      The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt
      Excuse me, the name is Michael Shedlock, sorry
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    • Sat Oct 4th 06:42 AM
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      The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt
      I think the article should have been titled "The Five Reasons That Are Most Certainly Not The Five Reasons, Why Fertilizer Stocks Are InThe Dirt." To start with I believe that there are far more than" just five reasons" to explain what's going on with AG stocks, and none of these other well worn reasons were even mentioned. Apparently the author is not aware of anything like the credit crises, a world wide crises of confidence, hedge fund activities, fear, and most appropriate ignorance, to name a just a few in no particular order. Ignorance, by the way does not mean dumb or stupid. It means a lack of correct knowledge or information, or more simply, just not knowing. In that light, try reading this article all over again. If you still have doubts, try reading the articles written by Michael Smedmark at this web site.
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    • Sat Oct 4th 05:40 AM
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      Bailout Bill Passes; What Happens Now?
      A simply amazing article! The author is certainly one of the few people on this planet to say it all,as it actually is. I will freely admit that my brain has serious difficulties accepting certain parts of the inflation/deflation argument, but until furthur, I will assume that the problem must be on my end, and not on the author's end. Many thanks for the article.
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    • Thu Oct 2nd 09:32 AM
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      Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued
      About thirty years ago I read one of the best books on finance that I have ever read. It was a very short book simply entitled "What Is Money? After following the history of various types of money used over the centuries and the disasters that followed, the author presented his conclusion: MONEY IS TRUST, period. When the trust is broken the value of the money in whatever form, simply disappears.His case was VERY well documented.
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    • Fri Aug 29th 05:08 AM
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      Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011
      Think-About-It, Get Real! The only person on this planet, who can waste your own time is you! So stop holding other people responsible for your own foolishness, and start taking some responsibility for yourself. No one wants to hear about how unhappy you are wasting your time at seeking alpha. Only a very desperate loser would make a fool of themselves in public, in order to get some much needed attention. This website was created for serious investors to exchange their opinions and analysis about publicly traded companies, and you are very welcome to join the rest of us in this mutual pastime.
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    • Tue Aug 26th 09:39 AM
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      In Support of Potash Corp.'s Projected 2008 Gross Margin Increase
      Tim Plaehn,
      Thanks for your feedback. I agree that the market priced in the 2008 growth in 2007, but I don't agree that the present or future growth is slowing. On the contrary, I'm roughing out an article PROVING that the growth is increasing, but it won't be ready any time soon. I agree, that the market might well THINK that growth is slowing and acting accordingly, but I believe it's only a temporary rotation out of commdities. After all, a lot of, people once rotated in to commodities, well knowing, that they would also soon rotate out. Most "investors" just follow the crowd in the short term market swings.

      I am definitly not assuming that 201% (gross margin) growth or stock growth is going to occur "as far as the eye can see." That quote referred to fertilizer (especially potash) price increases, not gross margin increases, or stock increases. Of course, price increases usually result in gross margin increases, which also sometimes result in stock increases, but only if all else goes well.

      I continue to stand for every word in the article, even though there was some editing by SA.
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    • Fri Jul 25th 07:18 AM
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      The 2008 Share Repurchase Program At Potash Corp. (Part VI)
      GROTY, Check out the volume charts. I think the volume spikes represent the days when management is doing some heavy buying. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 might show up in the financial history books some day. Volume was at more than 25 million shares, compared to almost 11 million average the last three months. Management could have easily bought the remaining 5 million shares at prices between 195 and 205. So maybe the buying program is already over. What do you think?
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    • Thu Jul 24th 08:00 AM
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      The 2008 Share Repurchase Program At Potash Corp. (Part VI)
      GROTY, An excellant point! I'm aware that some companies abuse share repurchases, and /or make terrible mistakes, that they and shareholders seriously regret with the passage of time. I chose not to "muddy the waters" with all the relevant facts and pros and cons of buybacks, as I don't think many people quite understand what they are to begin with. You obviously do. The key to understanding whether Potash Corp's repurchase program is likely to be a good idea or not, would seem to hang on whether Warren Buffet's wise words apply to the present situation or not. Notice how the author is carefully hiding behind Warren Buffet's words. That seems like a safe place to hide, so I'll let him take all the heat, if there ever is any. There's not many comments on this article so far. It looks like the other one (The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust) is getting all the heat instead.
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    • Mon Jul 21st 09:23 AM
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      What You Can - And Can't - Learn from Warren Buffett
      RICK KONRAD, You have a really clear way of thinking and expressing, on top of a very sharp mind.
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    • Mon Jul 21st 09:03 AM
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      UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again
      CYERMAN, No to your first two questions, yes to your third. Your line of thinking and questioning is very good and correct,so keep up the good work, but you are mostly thinking USA. Just use the same type of thinking and ask all the same type of questions, as applied to the whole world. Then you will get the answers you are looking for.
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    • Mon Jul 21st 08:49 AM
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      UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again
      WILL, I can't agree with your reasoning, but I feel your anger and frustration. It seems to be overpowering your power of reasoning. Not many people can reason well, when anger is in control of the mind. Try calming down a little and reading this article and blogs over again, perhaps on another day. There is a lot of valuble information being offered to you free of any charge.The price of a company's stock at any moment only represents the balance of supply and demand for the stock at that moment. The price is merely the mechanism that ensures the relative balance between supply and demand. Markets are only as rational as the people who buy and sell in them. Do you actually think that we investor humanoids are rational? Do you think that the going price of any stock somehow does, or should, represent the true value of the company? When a company's stock price is going down, at the same time that the news flow is very positive, and the company and industry fundamentals are very strong, rational investors see that as a great buying opportunity. What you see now is a just a market shake out, and all the scared uninformed bears are selling to the calm well informed bulls. One of those bulls buying heavily is the management of Potash Corp, not with their own money, but with the shareholders money. We who are long POT don't have to do anything. Management does it for us by buying the stock of the scared and uninformed bears, at bargain prices during market turndowns, which is the subject of my next article. If you really want to get angry, try clicking on the July 1st article "The Better Performing Half Of Potash Corp" and subsequent articles. That will really make your day, if anger is what you like best. Second quarter results are due on Thursday, don't miss out on all the fun!!!
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    • Mon Jul 21st 08:04 AM
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      UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again
      JimPunkrockford, I'm sorry but I can't agree with your view of farmers using other cheaper fertilizers, or cutting back on Potash. The active ingredient in Potash (KCL) is Potassium (K) an element, that cannot be substituted for, as it is an element. In Phosphates, same story. Phosphorous (P) is also an element. Nitrogen (N) also same story. These are the three main fertilizers. The three lesser fertilizers are calcium (CA), sulfur (S), and Magnesium (Mg), also elements. None of these can be replaced by another to achieve a positive economic effect because they are all unique elements. All are necessary for optimum plant growth, but there is still much more. It's the correct balance between them all, that gives the farmer his pay off. Food scientists say that the world needs to double it's use of Potash to get the results needed to feed the whole world. It's the world wide lack of Potash used, that is causing the most problems. Therefore the best solution is to invest in Potash. The best places to get more info are potashcorp.com and monsanto.com, then you will see the light. North American farmers make about three dollars for every dollar they INVEST IN Potash. The rest of the world's farmers can make much more, up to about 10 dollars per dollar invested, because their fields are very depleted of Potassium, because they have never used enough of it, because many of them still don't know what Potassium actually is, and because they don't have any Potash deposits (India), or very few (China,Brazil, Indonesia, and most other countries.)
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    • Mon Jul 21st 06:45 AM
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      The 2008 Historic Potash Handoff (Part V)
      MW92101, Nice blog, why don't you expand it and turn it into an article. All you need to add is disclosure of your position, as required by SA. The only part I don't agree with is your 2 cents evaluation. Your blog is worth exactly as much to any other investor, as they eventually make (or lose), by following, (or not following) your line of reasoning, accepting (or not accepting) the facts you have presented, topped off by your conclusions, which of course represent your well founded opinions. An investment in MOS right now, might well result in a short term loss somewhere in cyber space in the near future, which only an idiot would grab by selling into it, (and then of course holding all others responsible including authors, articles, management,charts, markets etc.) These fertilizer stocks, especially those with Potash are the "no brainers" of this decade. All you need to do is buy at the market price, no matter how high and "over-valued"... that may seem to be and hold, at least 5 or 10 years, until the supply of Potash has even a reasonable chance of equaling the world wide demand. Then you might just start thinking about, considering the possibility of, selling part or all of your enormous profits, or just continuing to hold even longer, because by then the world wide demand, having also increased considerably, might well still surpass the world wide supply.I'm long on MOS and almost all other agricultural investments, especially fertilizers and seeds, which feed each other. The more effective the seeds are at mining the soil for nutrients, the more nutrients (fertilizers) are needed. The higher priced and more effective gene-spliced seeds are bought with the extra profits that, the smart farmer makes from using ever increasing amounts of fertilizers. The vast majority of the world's farmers are not that smart yet - China, India, Brazil, Indonesia etc. That's why the world has an agriculture crises on it's hands. Do you want to be part of the problem, one more noisy yapping mouth to feed, or part of the solution - a well informed investor, who bases investment decisions on FACTS, not opinons. RRealtyPro just beat all the slower readers. Now he gets the benefits of everyone, who buys in at a higher price, but not the ones who buy in at a lower price. Someday soon, all buying and selling will take place at a higher level, and never return to the available price today.
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    • Mon Jul 21st 05:16 AM
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      The 2008 Historic Potash Handoff (Part V)
      Muzie, Thanks for the helpful feedback. I don't have a website at present. I thought that myblog.com was a system to use for people without websites, like the use of "poste restance" in the international postal system, where world travellers can receive personal mail at their next intended destination. I'll get it fixed along with some other matters, like the heavy abuse at this website, when some of the editors from SA return from summer vacation. I'm glad your brave enough to enter the mud bath. Stay clean, and you can contact me through blogs, if you want to
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