Dr. Duru

http://www.drduru.com/money/money.html
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58 Comments

    • Wed Nov 19th 08:46 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Betting on Goldman's Future
      Note that as of typing, my submission contains a few numerical errors on calculating returns. I hope to get them fixed soon (they are corrected in the original piece on my site). The return on the call spread is 200%. And the straight call required Buffet's warrants to be 14% in-the-money to get a 200% return in January, 2010.

      Sunil94062: I would love more detail on how you came up with your valuation model...
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 9th 12:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What to Do Now With Solar Energy Stocks
      As usual, the commentary on any article related to solar stocks combines insightful rebuttal, entertaining rants, and opinion presented without bothering to read the original piece carefully.
      Here are my responses for various things I can respond to - in case it still matters to anyone:
      1. Sol Invictus: Shares short from nasdaq.com
      2. 31October and jcordes: clarification on LDK - My article says that my original thesis on financing turned out to be wrong.
      3. Bob55: I recommend you review my articles again to get clarification on where I have stood short-term vs long-term in solar. Summary, short-term lots of risks remains for solar and I have been one to under-estimate just how bad things could get. In the long-term, I am positive on solar using just a few select positions that I am willing to hold through the short-term problems.
      4. dr hoodoo: It's "Tootie" not "Tootsie"
      5. jcordes: I had no comment on SOL, I offered no personal opinion on poly supplies. I provided quotes from analysts on THEIR opinions.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 9th 12:10 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Is Jim Cramer Right? Is Apple Really a Market Barometer?
      I did use a one-day delay and results worsened. Both charts show those results. The correlations also include a look at 1-day time lag. I stopped there because I saw nothing that told me it was worth the time to make this analysis even more complicated. Cramer presented no evidence of predictive power (outside of one trading day where the S&P futures were limit down in the pre-market), and I thikn it's dangerous to base investing advice and especially trading advice on "spirits." I would love for someone to take this analysis a step further, but I doubt it's worth anyone's time to do so given what we see here.

      What didn't make this copy of my original article is that I also recognize that this analysis does not tells us whether AAPL performs better than any other stock as a market barometer. If that were the case, it is also understandable why Cramer could make the mistake he did.

      On Nov 09 08:47 AM win wrote:

      > I think Cramer may have been speaking of Apple's predictive value.
      > Simultaneous price correlation and the other tools you use would
      > be useless to assess this metric. Instead, I would use a delay of
      > one day and assess AAPL's price correlation with the SP, then 2 days
      > and so on up to 5 days. Then I would do the same on a weekly chart.
      > That is one way of measuring predictive value.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 9th 11:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Energy: A Value Trap - Merrill
      I agree with "investor88" - based on this list (minus insurance machinery), the broader stock market is likely a value trap. Would have been interesting for Merrill to accompany their value trap sectors with sectors that they consider investable now.

      On Nov 09 09:14 AM investor88 wrote:

      > Most interesting article. Energy a value trap, may well be! Going
      > one step further, isn't the broad equity market [ and other asset
      > markets ] a value trap too in the light of deteriorating fundmentals?
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 31st 11:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Looking for Something Different From Intel
      Good add! Thanks...
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 31st 11:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did the SEC's No-Short List Impact Stock Prices?
      Fine. If what you claim is true, then the SEC, or any agency for that matter, should not engage in market manipulation unless it knows how to measure the impact its actions will have. It's very dangerous to engage in policy knowing in advance you will have no idea whether what you are doing is working or not. This piece was intended to examine the directly stated goals of this edict using as simple a case as possible.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 14th 18:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      America Will Print as Much Money as It Takes
      Yes, indeed. Plenty of folks are borrowing and the whole point of flooding the system with liquidity is to provide plenty of incentive to lend and borrow.
      David D: Yes, part of the point of inflation is to help borrowers. Essentially, you get more dollars to pay down existing debt. Under such a situation, housing prices *should* increase...as well as a whole host of physical assets. Workers will no doubt demand more dollars from employers to cover higher prices, etc... The Federal Reserve likes to think it knows how to perfectly balance price stability and economic growth. I will let you judge the historical record...especially the latest one!
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 9th 17:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bad Omens from the VIX
      See the complete article here (including charts): www.drduru.com/money/0...
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 29th 15:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buying the Paulson Panic
      I CLEARLY need to do an update on my "confidence" in our democratic system! Stay tuned....
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 23rd 09:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bank on Goldman - Cramer's Stop Trading! (9/22/09)
      Why is Cramer surprised GS was down on Monday? He advised his own viewers to sell into the Th/Fri rally. Jim Cramer can be all over the place and hard to follow for actionable advice.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 23rd 08:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Reducing Coal Position As Hedge Funds Punish the Sector
      Did you notice how KOL soared on Friday well ahead of its individual components? What happened there?
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 22nd 18:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Treasury's Plan Is Breathtakingly Awful
      Great piece. And a lot of good comments here to boot. I too had not yet gotten to the point of thinking of the bailout plan as a type of coup and destruction of the very tenets of the US Constitution. However, it seems like the "coup thesis" only really works if Paulson presents the next President with the same ultimatum he is doing now...that is, he insists that only HE is smart enough to understand how to steer America through this.
      Interesting thoughts and links here, folks. Thanks!
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 19th 17:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oversold Bounce and Bear Market Rally Are Here
      You can see the full article here: www.drduru.com/money/0...
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 08:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?
      jcordes - I am not sure what thesis you are referring to. The main thesis in this piece is that my earlier claim that solar has decoupled from oil was erroneous. We can argue about cause and effect, but numerically (mathematically) the correlation is there...as oil has come down, solar has generally come down. And of course, that could change again at some point later.
      JoeJoe - I did not talk much about specific entry and exit points on the various plays based on the technicals, but I certianly would want to open a fresh short STP on a bounce and not chase it downward...
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 7th 08:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Rustbelt Revival: From Doom to Boom
      Very promising and encouraging...
      View article »
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