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    • Thu Jul 3rd 09:59 AM
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      Commented on:
      Is This a Tradeable Bottom?
      Jeff, you could have just said, 'not yet'.
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    • Sun Jun 29th 20:06 PM
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      Commented on:
      Current Market Conditions and Future Returns
      Amen to that, seems like every opportunity for a political rant is rarely missed. I'll tell ArtfulDodger what I told Dennis Kneale, thanks but 'zip it'.
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    • Thu Jun 19th 14:27 PM
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      Commented on:
      RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?
      Excellent analysis Walter.
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    • Thu Jun 19th 14:22 PM
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      Commented on:
      RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?
      We face two major headwinds, credit crisis and oil.

      The Fed has done all it can do to avert a major meltdown but trouble still lies ahead. We won't know the full extent of the mortgage write-downs until housing prices bottom (see Citicorps announcement today). If the Fed raises rates, this only makes housing less affordable, thus extending the subprime/mortgage losses. So I don't see rates going up anytime soon. (Yes, we want and need a strong dollar but I see that as rhetoric for now. The bigger fire is with our bank's health.)

      Depending upon your school of thought, inflation comes from rising prices and/or printing money. Rising prices from the effects of oil and commodities may be countered if, and I say if, we can dissuade speculation through regulation. $140 oil is not sustainable so demand will drop naturally. So either from regulation or reduced demand oil should drop back to $120 or below. This will spell some relief for the markets but it will be brief. The ripple effects of higher production and commodity costs will be felt throughout, reducing consumption and profitability. Markets will adjust downward and may sprial downward faster if we cannot control the falling dollar or oil prices. I just don't see a compelling arguement for the bulls.

      And we know the solution to printing money - raise taxes, exit Iraq, cut government spending. Good luck with that.
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    • Sat Apr 12th 20:28 PM
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      Commented on:
      7 Reasons March Was Not the Bottom
      Good article and comments all. I agree Blair, the value heads are like starry eyed freshmen, oblivious to the ripple effects of deteriorating fundamentals and wishful thinking that real estate prices have stabilized. Living here in central CA, I can assure you the problem is growing and we have yet to see a floor on prices. The pundits in NY are insulated from from the carnage here and seemed surprised when banks, etc. continue to report even worse numbers. GE was a prime wake-up call that the worst is not yet over and more 'surprises' will follow. Thanks chrism1962 for reminding us that common sense is indeed fleeting and that commercial loans will be the next sad story.
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