Loading...
Symbols:
Get Seeking Alpha Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Get Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Transcripts
- Salesforce.com F3Q09 (Qtr End 10/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Hurray! Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Gap, Inc. F3Q08 (Qtr End 11/01/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Digimarc Corporation Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Ditech Networks Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 10/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Novellus Systems, Inc. Q4 2008 Mid-Quarter Update Earnings Call Transcript
- Zumiez, Inc. F3Q08 (Quarter End 11/01/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Aruba Networks F1Q09 (Qtr End 10/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Cost Plus Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Dell Inc. F3Q 2009 (Qtr End 10/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
-
Editors' Picks
-
Most Popular
- Preferred Dividend ETFs: Shelter from the Storm?
- TIPS Strips, Redux
- We Need ETF-Based Hedge Funds
- Talking ETF with iShares CEO Lee Kranefuss
- Automakers: Bailout Arguments, Pro and Con
- My Reconsideration: Why Share Buybacks Are Pointless
- Full list of Editors' Picks »
- General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse? »
- Apple's Greatest Idea Yet »
- Four Commonsense Clues to a Genuine Market Bottom »
- Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor? »
- GE: Not-So-Good Things Come to Light »
- Thornburg Mortgage, Inc. The Wall Street Analyst Call Transcript »
- The Pickens Plan Changes Its Strategy »
- The9 Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript »
- Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12 »
- Peak Oil's Bell Is Ringing »
- Precious Metals Will Depose Cash from Its Temporary Throne »
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Trading Center
- Free E-Newsletters
- About Seeking Alpha
- About Us
- Contact Us
- What's New
- Readers Feedback
- Advertise With Us
- Contributors
- Contribute an Article
- Feature Your Book
- Our Contributors
- Anonymous Contributions
- Dispute an Article?
- Legal
- Terms of Use
- Privacy
- Copyright
Halp
10 Comments
Alcohol Can Be a Gas: Debunking Myths About Ethanol
I think that ethanol has a place in a nations energy playbook, especially as they try to break an unfortunate dependance on oil. The source of that ethanol must vary by region as to balance out supply and demand issues.
The recent Chapter 11 of VERASUN (YIKES what a fiasco!) as well as a few others, may have had a lot to do with mismanagement but it does also highlight the problem with using one primary source for ethanol production.
(In VERASUN's case Irresponsible hedging, overly aggressive acquisitions and just plain old financial stupidity. The stock is at $0.06 per share and had been as high as $30 !)
Ethanol can and has been produced from corn, sugar cane, sourgum, orange waste, forest biomass or dairy industry byproducts. There are plenty of different sources. Unfortunately we will see increased competition..and higher prices.. for those potential ethanol sources as even coal fired power plants are expertimenting with burning forest biomass to produce electricity.
Here in Wisconsin, as in most of the Midwest, we have many small ethanol producers that rely primarily on corn. One producer, RENEW Energy, appears to have developed a small, solid and successful business plan that provides value to its loyal customers. Until technology advances, the manufacturing process of ethanol will likely and for good reason remain small scale. I think the book points that out too!
There are many problems in the US with extremely large scale ethanol production, storage and transportation. The political, economic and environmental issues are wildly divisive. For most people, there does not appear to be a "mid point" on its use.
Nevertheless, as Brazil and Japan have shown us, there is some upside potential here. The real answer will come if the politicos and lobbyists can take one step toward the middle.
Agricultural Commodities: Beware the Harvest Moon Rising
I dont think McCain will kill ethanol if he knows what is good for him.
It is currently to big and to important..during this transitional phase of our "yet undetermined" national energy policy development, to knock off.
Look for a reduction/elimination of the tarriff on its importation for sure. ( Sugar Ethanol-Brazil)
Look for an increase in the blenders credit that most of the oil guys love to take.
Look for some type of incentives for farmers to make up some of the
slack as the corn price drops off.
That way he wont totally, politically, alienate the (corn) ethanol power base and its positive effects on our terrible oil consumption problem.
Food Makers Scrimp on Ingredients in an Effort to Fatten Profits
Who do you think will own it?
Multinational oil companies perhaps? Most likely!
How much will the oil (and refined products) be worth ?
Will the price will be set by Global Supply and Demand principles?
Ahhhh Yes- most likely !
Who will purchase these products when they become available on the global market? Ahhhhh-The highest global bidder? Most likely!
How much more tax revenue will the US government get because of this new found oil source?
Plenty, most likely!
(Ohhh--That is good of course-- because we need to service our growing national debt. We'll send two boats of money over to the middle and far east nations. At least we'll have the cash!
How much will the average American company (and citizen) ultimately pay for this precious, American black gold?
(.....The oil that is coveted by the "you know who" emerging industrial nations. )
Most likely alot more than we are paying now?
Think about it?
And now KML, further enlightenment ........info about corn and ethanol
Ethanol Truth Squad Still Needed to Patrol for Inaccurate Information
-Source: Rick Tolman, Chief Executive Officer, National Corn Growers Association
When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency turned down a request for a one-year cut in the renewable fuels standard on August 7, we hoped it would silence the outspoken few who spread inaccurate and incomplete information on the issue. Unfortunately, within moments, they were out there talking their talk.
We believe farmers and food producers should be working together, not driving stakes in each other’s hearts. We also know that not everyone agrees on this issue and dissenters may never understand or accept the facts. Yet, we plug along trying to help people see the truth about corn supply, ethanol’s impact and more.
First, our corn supply is plentiful enough to meet everyone’s needs. We are providing more corn for food and feed, and have corn leftover at the end of the year. After the 2007 harvest, we met all needs and have more than 1.5 billion bushels leftover. According to the current U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast, we will meet all needs and have more than a billion bushels leftover after the 2008 harvest. Projections for when the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) reaches it maximum of 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol show that we also will produce more than enough corn for food, feed and other uses—including ethanol production.
When you take into account the fact that ethanol production, as projected for 2008, will result in an additional one billion bushels of livestock feed, you find that ethanol itself will consume only about 22 percent of the 2008 corn supply, while livestock feed will use 45 percent. That’s a lot of corn which goes, ultimately, into food. Click here for details.
Our opponents also talk about the impact on wheat, and allege that wheat production is down, thanks to the RFS. The truth is, ever since the RFS kicked in, wheat acreage has been on the increase, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). In 2005, 57.23 million acres of wheat were planted. This year, the number is 63.46 million acres—the highest in 10 years.
We remain convinced that technology is an important tool for guaranteeing an adequate and consistent supply which meets all needs. It is the primary reason corn yields have been on the rise since the mid-1990s. In fact, some technology providers are predicting that average yields can reach 300 bushels of corn per acre, nearly double the current yield.
When it comes to corn prices, consider this: The USDA’s average projected farm price of corn from the 2008 harvest dropped to $5.40 on August 11, only weeks after corn futures neared $8. In fact, corn can be bought for less than $5 in some places. Even the price of a barrel of crude oil and a gallon of gasoline has gone down.
VeraSun Energy: A Growth Stock Reborn
Wisconsin has quite a few of these (type stations) already and the number is growing. Hip hip hooray!
Take a look at the price of gasoline, E-30 or E-85 at the (no frills) RENEW filling stations as compared to the big oil boys.
Its direct, immediate relief to the average guy going to work...even with the drop off in MPG
That state of Wisconsin currently has an attractive grant program for companies looking to install ethanol capable fuel tanks.
It'll be a little more time but we will be saying farwell to you know who!
Bulls Grazing in the Corn Field
From a chemical viewpoint, is it possible to decrease the quantity of corn used for ethanol production by substituting a certain percentage of low quality feed crop, non feed crop, waste or paper mill byproduct in the process?
What would that (those) be the most promising alternative ?
Because most corn sources and ethanol plants are located in Midwest rural areas this second ingredient would need to be plentiful, nearby (transportation) and less affected by weather issues as they affect availability.
I have seen articles about using dairy and paper byproducts--( in Wisconsin) and orange waste (in Florida)
How would this would affect the quality of the wet/dry distillers grain .....a secondary source of revenue from ethanol production...?
Ethanol Is No Field of Dreams
..and yes I realize that could cause a run up in the demand and cost of sugar cane.
Is there some potential for investment opportunity in that area (sugar ?)
An Oil-Driven Paradigm Shift?
(Remember 1973 ?) The situation is much worse now than back in 1973 to 1983.
Additionally, when federal or state government do provide some sort of tax incentives to assist a fledgling start up idea or industry, either one of the two major political parties or those industries on the other side of the street run to their laywers and try to shut "change" down.
I'm sick of the partisan politics that run...or should I saw ruin ...this country !
Is the Market Rethinking the Ethanol Sector?
Are they planning on switching an existing Corn Eth to another fuel source?
(I'm not sure of the technological or chemical enzyme issues involved and not sure if it is an easy switch)
What fuel source ? Sugar ?
Could this be a signal that the Brazilian Ethanol will be allowed in without the current tarrif?
Cheaper Ethanol from Brazil Could Cripple U.S. Producers
We will always be an exporter and an importer.
I think whats important is to realize that a cohesive and comprehensive energy plan be developed and we must :
1)Diversify the types of energy we rely upon
(Ethanol, Electric, Oil, Hydro..etc)
2)Diversify the sources of that energy
(Oil from the Middle East, Ethanol from Brazil and Iowa!, Natural from Canada etc..)
3) Build into our future means of transportation the flexibility to use more than one source of fuel (Flex-Fuel vehicles ?)
4) Continue to develop celulosic ethanol so as not to be entirely tied to one source. ( What if the corn or sugar cane crop fail ? (or) if political instability in a region become an issue )
Regarding ethanol (corn, sugar cane or beet) which will NEVER replace oil entirely, the future appears to be cellulosic.
"Given sufficient investment in research, development, demonstration and deployment, the report projects biorefineries producing cellulosic ethanol at a cost leaving the plant between $.59-$.91 per gallon by 2015. The price range is dependent upon plant scale and efficiency factors. At these prices, biofuels would be competitive with the wholesale price of gasoline".
Cheaper Ethanol from Brazil Could Cripple U.S. Producers
It seems that you have awakened a sleeping giant!
This time that giant resides in the America's and "guarantees a free press". This (federal) republic "has a vigorous media that thrives on open debate regarding political and social matters".
They ..Brazil that is....also had the foresight to shed their dependence on your products and may now get their due.
As for the implications for our ethanol industry? Perhaps haydete (April 15, 7:56AM) was correct.. going all corn was a misjudement. We do learn from our mistakes.