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Latest Comments155 Comments
A Different $700 Billion
This inundation of cheap labor has aggravated -- or is a principal cause of -- the problems working class Americans are experiencing.
A Different $700 Billion
Eliminate illegal labor and many working class Americans would find decent paying jobs immediately. And not at taxpayer expense to boot.
The Economics and Ethics of Mortgage Default
General Discussion on HOG
This experience makes me want to have no "long" positions apart from individual companies that I have a true knowledge of.
The days of steady 10-15% returns in mutual funds might be over for good.
I have no way of guessing how low HOG might go or whether the company will find itself in a cash squeeze like the Big 3. I tend to think HOG is not as in bad of shape short term as the Big 3.
Number of U.S. Homes With Negative Equity Is Stunning
If Americans cannot earn decent wages, where are we? Not everyone has the ability or education to invent or work behind a desk.
On Nov 12 05:39 PM E Thomas St wrote:
> Say goodbye to construction jobs. Say hello to higher unemployment.
>
Misguided Policies
And trying to turn housing prices around... does anyone know anything about economics? Actually, I know firsthand the answer is "no."
Number of U.S. Homes With Negative Equity Is Stunning
Remember, this crises started before the economy hit a wall. These people never could afford to pay off their loans without a windfall of increased home equity.
I said it before here: these homebuyers were like options traders. Their purchase of a house was like a call option. Because the stock price -- the home value -- did not go up but went down they will not exercise their stock option.
Any inconvenience or even disruption to the lives of families that gambled on housing is of their own making. The government cannot remove or even attempt to remove the moral hazard inherent in all this. That would be very dangerous.
Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor?
Why don't the pundits mention that we have a whole court system -- bought and paid for by the taxpayers -- to take care of these things. And we have a huge body of law on these very situations.
Let them declare Chapter 11 and reorganize. Wipe out the equity-holders. They were the ones getting rich off of SUVs and easy money for car buyers. They took the risk, and I will not guarantee their investment.
A Bankruptcy court could also force the unions to make concessions. This is better than any government bailout or at least would keep management disciplined and avoid taxpayers enriching the investors that made a bad investment.
The Shallowest Generation
But it is young people that will need to shoulder the cost of building schools, policing and providing health care for these "workers," who will eventually have babies, pay little to no taxes and become a heavy weight upon society.
The fate of Southern California is spreading to the rest of the country. For the first time, when I returned to my hometown of St. Louis my favorite pizza place had a kitchen staffed with Mexicans or Central Americans instead of teenage kids trying to earn some extra money and develop a work ethic. Political correctness will stifle any criticism until it is too late.
I have little sympathy for Americans and what they are watching happen to their country. Maybe democracy has its limits or maybe we are just a lousy, selfish citizenry. People must begin to speak above the din of popular media.
General Discussion on HOG
Housing Data Shows Downturn Could Be Prolonged
I do not want my tax dollars wasted. It's like trying to stop an iceberg's movement. All that some of the relief plans would do is pay for a failed speculator's rent (mortgage) for another few months before he finally finds an apartment or a house he can afford.
I want no part of this.
General Discussion on HOG
I actually tried to go long HOG at around $27, but soon realized that it was only going to get worse so bailed out quickly.
Not aware of the cash needs of HOG that are being discussed here. Are they in a near term crunch? Maybe all that stock manipulation they were doing with their buybacks was not such a good idea.
Maybe they should try chroming their stock share certificates.
Harley Davidson Tightens Credit Distribution
Maybe I should return all the money I made shorting HOG.
I do think that there are problems in comparing HOG to CAT and BA that require some elaboration.
We Had a Clue: Harley Davidson Announces Diminished Q3 Results
We Had a Clue: Harley Davidson Announces Diminished Q3 Results
On Oct 16 05:47 PM Joseph Wagda wrote:
> Hi Todd,
>
> I am less bearish on HOG than I have been in responding to previous
> posts on SA regarding HOG. However, there are three points which
> must be addressed before I can get completely bullish.
>
> 1. HOG indicated during the earnings call that it wanted HDFS to
> access the unsecured debt markets for $300 - $500 million this quarter.
> Why would it attempt to access that market (if possible) and lock
> in high spreads in lieu of issuing 364 day commercial paper and taking
> out that commercial paper with proceeds from a portfolio securitization
> in 2009 (or an issuance of medium term notes at less onerous spreads)?
> It seems to me that, at the very least, HDFS should be able to roll
> that commercial paper forward until late 2010 if the securitization
> market remains shut down. The primary course of action chosen by
> HOG makes me wonder what is really going on with HDFS and its credit
> facilities.
>
> 2. The share buybacks done by HOG over the last 21 months have been
> a terrible use of capital – during 2007 it repurchased approximately
> $1 billion in shares at an average price of approximately $50 per
> share. I’d bet that the $500 million lost in that trade would be
> attractive to HOG management right now. Even the $100 million repurchased
> in the third quarter was bought for $40 per share. (At least Ziemer
> and Bergmann were not writing leveraged CDS on Lehman debt.) If
> HOG management really is serious about HOG being a value at these
> prices, then Ziemer and (former Chairman/CEO) Bleustein should make
> some large purchases of HOG stock with their own capital.
>
> 3. Lastly, indicating that the drags on HOG’s performance are domestic
> sales and HDFS is akin to stating that the only things wrong with
> the Cincinnati Bengals are their offense and their defense. At least
> the special teams (in this case international sales and P&A) have
> not fallen apart yet!
>
> Notwithstanding the points made, at $26 per share, there is event
> driven risk priced into the shares which I believe is overblown.
> I’d buy these shares for a trade (maybe in conjunction with buying
> puts at $25 to limit event-driven risk exposure) with an eye on a
> $35 short term price target.