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    • Tue Nov 25th 08:38 AM
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      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Lows aren't in until Case-Shiller turns up again, meaning the toxic asset write-downs are over - let's see today's report, and whether the new regime has a practical fix for mortgage defaults. Deflation can and will be defeated by printing money. Agree with DF on holding lots of cash but can't resist a little gold a little TIPS, and stuffing the stocking with a few double-shorts as they go on a pre-holiday sale. Let's be thankful and raise a Thursday glass to the new ETFs, arriving just in time for this mess. Can't think what I'd have done even two years ago.
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    • Wed Oct 29th 09:36 AM
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      Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Dr. O:

      FXI tracks (for practical purposes is) the FTSE Xinhua China 25 Index, mainland companies trading on the Hong Kong (not Shanghai) exchange. It's about 40% banks/insurance. There's a PDF Factsheet here:

      ftse.com/xinhua/englis...
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    • Tue Oct 28th 09:46 AM
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      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      To the extent this is about Black Swans smashing into Manhattan, this is indeed reminding me of 9/11, slow motion this time, and I'd start to buy those lows. I would not be surprised to see a Santa trading (sucker) rally commencing soon, carrying through New Year, and revisiting the bargain basement early in the year. I'm nearly out of my doubleshort limbo dance positions - the fun challenge is going low while avoiding that backside flop.
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    • Wed Sep 24th 12:45 PM
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      Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Metooball, No less a man than Bill Gross brought up just that solution - maybe half seriously.

      www.pimco.com/LeftNav/...
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    • Wed Sep 24th 09:41 AM
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      Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Personally I think trying to bail out at the level of these funny instruments is a big mistake. The real problem is the real estate market from which any valuation of the exotic asset packages has to be derived by the Suspender Boys who invented them. The only way to fix this is to inject liquidity into the underlying RE market and let the chips fall from derivative investments on that basis. I think the evil ways of the GSE management has clouded the fact that they're probably the most effective tool for moving government money into the problem assets and helping your friend Chucky save the house. I'd rather Up-Chuck than go blind.
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    • Thu Sep 18th 09:08 AM
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      Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      There are going to be a lot of wrong calls about equity market capitulation, when we haven't seen the housing market capitulate yet. Of course there might be some more extended tradeable rallies, like last summer's. Any mark to market accounting right now is just an exercise in hallucinatory seller optimism or buyer pessimism, Three or four months of Case Shiller uptrend might tell us this is over, and even that might be misleading if it's only due to another wave of Treasury deficit "stimulus" from a Democrat Congress.
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    • Wed Sep 17th 10:09 AM
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      Why Buy MLPs? Part II
      Thanks for the steer to BSR - on lookup I note it's a McGraw-Hill ETN (with a pretty steep .85% ER), so these days there'd be issuer credit risk apart from the market. There are risks as well as benefits to not owning the underlying assets.
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    • Tue Sep 16th 12:39 PM
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      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Interested in DF unloading doubleshort crude oil - I took today's gap down to do the same, as well as taking some quick gains on SDS and SKF, factoring a risk of some sort of relief rally or consolidation on FOMC action this afternoon. As a Canada booster, I'd say Russia has taken itself out of the optimistic "emerging market" category - how about more short ETFs for "submerging markets" as economies blessed with resources that are nevertheless drinking themselves to infertility and death under the direction of crooked autocrats.
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    • Tue Sep 9th 11:48 AM
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      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      The Band also did "The Night They Drove Ol' Dixie Down"

      Well I don't mind choppin' wood,
      and I don't care if the money's no good
      Ya take what ya need and ya leave the rest
      They never should have taken the very best
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    • Tue Sep 9th 07:45 AM
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      Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      A (my) less charitable view is that covering the wall of the Bernanke/Paulson "war room" is a big sign saying "IT'S THE ELECTION, STUPID!" We've had a housing bubble, and prices are still much higher than they should be. Stops will be pulled as necessary to prevent the voters from worrying too much before November 4th, after which a new game with new players. In the meantime, this administration goes out leaving its successor with more fiscal deficit, no money for national infrastructure and energy efficiency, no money to retool and recruit the sand-clogged military, and everybody in America is living in a "social housing" project under a Chinese-model as well as Chinese-backstopped market. All to keep Case-Schiller from falling to a convincing bottom. Re financials, I recall this time last year when the market was saying, "we'll have to wait for year-end accounting to get a straight story on all that paper. We still don't, and I'm not so sure we'll have the story yet by Inauguration Day. My limit order for more SKF triggered yesterday morning.
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    • Thu Sep 4th 10:49 AM
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      Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      I'd suggest adding Canada (EWC) to coverage - it's a G8 economy (running fiscal surpluses) not included in the EFA basket, US's biggest trading partner, and while I see the inclination to thoroughly "do the BRICs" I'd say Canada's a better energy/resource and banking play for investors, without the regional soap operas.
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    • Wed Sep 3rd 09:05 AM
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      Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Re the market gap up and enthusiasm for Financials, yesterday was the first day back after the summer vacation hiatus, so all the 20-something Suspender Boys and Money Honeys turned up fresh for work with lots of cash at their desks and not a clue what to do with it, and had to kill the hours til lunchtime with the guys who knows what's what. Good day to load up on SKF, may not be too many more chances for a while.
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    • Wed Sep 3rd 09:01 AM
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      Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      Re yesterday's gap up and the Financials pop, of course, Monday the 2nd is the first day after the August vacation/Labour Day hiatus, and the all the hot to trot 20-something Suspender Boys and Money Honeys turn up fresh for work with lots cash and without a clue, having to kill the hours until their lunches with the guys who knows whats what. No surprise. I took the opportunity to load up on SKF.
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    • Fri Feb 15th 14:18 PM
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      Which of the 6 Agriculture ETFs is Best?
      Just ran a 6 month chart of what's mentioned in the article with MOO (which has been on my watch list without dipping a toe yet) - DBA and MOO show as the current best bets in a pretty hot market, with DBA less volatile as a "long" and MOO the volatile trading preference. Does anybody have a clue about how these might perform in a recession?
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    • Fri Feb 15th 14:04 PM
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      Auction-Bond Failures Push Up Municipal Bond Rates
      Nuveen was quoted in Bloomberg reports as being particularly troubled by the muni auction failure, because it apparently relies on it for purposes of capitalization of its CEFs (more knowledge about this appreciated) which may account for the unusual degree of damage to its CEFs - I dumped my one Nuveen CEF as well as the remainder of my Pimco muni (PMF) position on the news.
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