saifl
Loading...
Symbols:
Loading...
Symbols:
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Trading Center
- Free E-Newsletters
- About Seeking Alpha
- About Us
- Contact Us
- What's New
- Readers Feedback
- Advertise With Us
- Contributors
- Contribute an Article
- Feature Your Book
- Our Contributors
- Anonymous Contributions
- Dispute an Article?
- Legal
- Terms of Use
- Privacy
- Copyright
Latest Comments36 Comments
Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
July31st 07 CFTC report, Net Speculator long position in oil 130,000 contracts oil price $72.
June 25th 08 CFTC report Net Speculator long position in oil 12,000 contracts oil price $138.
Speculator positions down by 90% and prices double.
can you explain that on your Speculator theory?
Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
I trash him not on a personal level. I trash him because he misinforms the public about how serious a problem we have with "peak oil".
I have been in this since $30 a barrel and I have heard all you guys explaining it away with Iraq war, China surge in demand, Weak dollar, refining capacity (lol that was freaking funny) and Speculation.
Do you know which was the best performing commodity from 2001?
It was Rhodium. 99% of the people who trade futures have not heard about it. Because it does not have a futures market. The Commodity bull market has just begun. Like Phil Davis and you it has many detractors which means we are still pretty early.
What do you think happened from 1970-1980? Gold went up from $35 to $850. Sure many called it a bubble after it was up 3X.
It went up another 8 fold after that!.
"Do you live in the United States?"
Yes.
Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
That's right, we have rounding errors in our inventory reports bigger than China's entire daily import consumption! China's demand will grow by 10% (300Kbd, best case) next year? Bring it on! U.S. passenger cars alone consume 10Mb of oil PER DAY, we could save 300K barrels by checking our tire pressure!
Call us when you get to 5M barrels a day, which, at the current growth rate, will be around 2015. If between today and 2015 President Gore raises the mileage requirements for cars from 20mpg to 35mpg (where Europe is now), the U.S. will save more imported oil than China is projected to consume in its entirety! What would the headlines be if we projected China's net oil demand slipping to 0 by 2015?
Russia is doing it's best for China, bumping production up 2.1% this year, that's 200Kbd, almost as much as China's increase right there! Thanks Vlad! Russia, China (they make it too), Nigeria, Venezuela (thanks Hugo) and even Iraq, have ramped up production over the past two years and it is now estimated that there are 2.5Mbd of excess production capacity globally, the most in 5 years. That number is expected to rise to 4Mbd by next year, even assuming a 1.8% (high) increase in global demand. Should the rest of the planet follow the U.S. with a 1.8% DECREASE in demand, there could be as much as 8M barrels overproduced every day in 2008 -- the most in history!
seekingalpha.com/artic...
"Should Saudi Arabia decide to hold back volumes to maintain prices, their proven capacity utilization would probably need to drop to 75-77%, which has historically been a threshold level. While this may sustain pricing for others, it would of course lower Saudi's market share, given that few other OPEC members seem inclined to assist."
8 MPD overproduced in 2008? Wow Phil stroke of genius. What an awesome prediction. And china's demand far exceeded those projections. And oil on its last legs? oil spent only 30 days below the price at which you made this stupid prediction.
Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
This is hilarious.
By the way, do you know how much you can buy oil for in Dec 2012? $67.38 for guaranteed delivery of as much oil as you want. Where is T. Boone Pickens? This is 5 years past his peak oil $200 prediction, he should have a billion contracts at this price shouldn't he? Come on T Boone, let's put some money where that mouth is!"
So much bullcrap there and the price of oil has doubled. Mr Penguin continues to huff and puff. In 2 years it will double again and then again moron phil will talk the same BS.
World oil production is flat for about 3 years now (your fav EIA and IEA stats) with demand rapidly rising in the emerging economies.
Options Trader: Thursday Outlook
How come Sugar is down 45% from 2006 with Speculators being long all the way?
Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
Here read this site,
americanenergycrisis.b...
You will see how easy it was for some people to say that the banks are freaking doomed.
Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
Hey moron you still have not answered my question. How come Natural gas is up more than 80% this year with the largest net speculator short position?
Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines the Case, But the Argument is Weak
12 million barrels for contracts that span 7 years? At current consumption rates that would not be 85 million barrels that would be 85 million barrels per day or about 210 billion barrels so 12 million is peanuts.
Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines the Case, But the Argument is Weak
www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...
As for elemenary math I thought you were smart enough to subtract the long from the short i.e 203,000 from 191000. I am sorry ..lets go over it again as to what net long means
It means the difference between the long and short.
and here..for August 2007
www.cftc.gov/files/dea...
CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-067651
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 08/07/07 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,504,817
COMMITMENTS
230,904 124,646 288,467 900,395 1017930 1419766 1431043 85,051 73,774
CHANGES FROM 07/31/07 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -16,420)
-33,491 -12,258 8,230 -412 -2,565 -25,673 -6,593 9,253 -9,827
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 8.3 19.2 59.8 67.6 94.3 95.1 5.7 4.9
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 318)
99 93 130 82 99 263 262
Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines the Case, But the Argument is Weak
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 06/17/08 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,335,207
COMMITMENTS
203,806 191,094 219,645 825,031 823,129 1248482 1233868 86,725 101,339
CHANGES FROM 06/10/08 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -83,542)
-14,678 -2,144 -25,976 -57,714 -73,551 -98,368 -101,671 14,826 18,129
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 14.3 16.5 61.8 61.6 93.5 92.4 6.5 7.6
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 320)
85 121 126 85 100 256 270
Yeah speculators are long a whopping 12,000 contracts. You know how many they were long when oil was at $78 last august? 110,000 contracts. So the price went up 80% and the number of net long contracts fell by 90%. How my ***you are a genius...There is a positive correlation. Lets stop the presses. We have discovered the damn truth
Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 06/17/08 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,335,207
COMMITMENTS
203,806 191,094 219,645 825,031 823,129 1248482 1233868 86,725 101,339
CHANGES FROM 06/10/08 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -83,542)
-14,678 -2,144 -25,976 -57,714 -73,551 -98,368 -101,671 14,826 18,129
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 14.3 16.5 61.8 61.6 93.5 92.4 6.5 7.6
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 320)
85 121 126 85 100 256 270
Hey jjason moron read above. from CFTC. Yeah speculators are long a whopping 12,000 contracts. You know how many they were long when oil was at $78 last august? 110,000 contracts. So the price went up 80% and the number of net long contracts fell by 90%. How my ***you are a genius...There is a positive correaltion. Lets stop the presses. Jmoron with Phil Moron has discovered the damn truth.
Options Trader: Friday Outlook
The reason no-one buys those contracts is that they are illiquid. But the decembers do trade. companies buy the december and then as the contract comes close, they close out the december and simultaneously take long positions in other months. That is how hedging is done. Now go back and read it slowly and then hit yourself a couple of times till it sinks in.Ok?
That said put in a bid $1 above what the ask is for the december is trading for those years and I will sell you all you want on any month? ok?.
And oh yeah 300 million barrels sold? and the price fell only $2? THAT is your logic? Who took the other side of that moron?
The net speculator long position is so small that only someone as stupid as you could think that prices could be influenced even marginally with that.
and BTW you still have not responded about Sugar and Natural gas as to why your imbecile theoires fail to explain "speculation"... with prices.
Speculation and the Price of Oil
www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...
go down this and see Crude oil Light Sweet. Figures change every week. For the current week
218,3848 long contracts for speculators and 193,238 short contracts for speculators. That is a net long position of about 25,300 contracts. That is the amount the world uses in less than 8 hours. Do you really believe we can influence prices with that?
Trivia qt number 1: Which market has the largest net short position of Speculators in 2008?
Answer:Natural gas
What happened to natural Gas prices?
Went up by 70%. Outperformed even oil
Largest short position and went up 70%. How do you explain that?
Trivia qt number 2:
Since 2006 which commodity has had a very large net long speculator position and gone down by 40%?
Sugar. you know why? Because production always trumps speculation. World production increased creaming the speculators who were long.
Not convinced?
Trivia qt number 3.
which commodity has outperformed all others since 2002?
rhodium...up 2400%... and guess what no commodity futures market for Rhodium.
Till a year back Uranium was outperforming oil with a price increase of 2000% or 20 fold from $7 to as high as $150 a pound and they did not even have a futures market for it till recently. In fact the price peaked 3 weeks after the futures were introduced by Nymex.
Options Trader: Friday Outlook
Look at the Put/Call ratio on USO and DBO.. bearish on oil
90% of analyst projections for 2009 price are below current price..i.e bearish on oil
The commercials who have yet to be collectively wrong and continuing to buy and are not hedging at higher prices.
I think all you bears are about the get your collective posteriors kicked.