phdinsuntanning

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    • Wed Nov 5th 17:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Will an Obama Administration Affect the Dollar?
      tell me who will buy the $ 500 billion of USTB?
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    • Wed Nov 5th 17:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Free Lunch Approach to Finance
      short V
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    • Wed Nov 5th 13:04 PM | Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      10 Points About the Markets
      you look depressed, make the losses and go to the beach
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    • Wed Nov 5th 11:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      ECB Balance Sheet Continues to Balloon at Unprecedented Rate
      Monsieur Trichet probably means "M3 figures would understate the INFLATIONARY effects of the credit crunch", or maybe we will see a US style run to safety when the real mess be more public?
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 5th 09:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will European Interest Rate Cuts Strengthen the Dollar?
      risky bet, but necesary: as many western europe banks will belly up
      because of loans to eastern europe and south america, maybe we see a run to the euro just because they will sell everything to cover their margin calls...
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    • Wed Nov 5th 09:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Welcome to your Financial Halloween!
      Enzio is a good economist, but normally good economists are terrible money managers. He still likes the yen, I sold it @ 90 yen/us$. The dollar
      will burst? imagine the euro, ok, take this advise, boy some chinese coal,
      if you cant make a profit, at least you can spend a warm winter.

      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 17:48 PM | Rating: 0 -3
      Commented on:
      The Biggest Bubble of Them All
      moral truth, virtues, and character?
      what you guys need a IMF structural
      adjustment loan with condicionality!
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 16:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Coming Inflation To Boost Stocks, Gold
      childish, read about repos!
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    • Tue Nov 4th 15:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China Slowdown: Biggest Test For Communist Government Yet
      so you are shorting what????
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 15:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Selectively Bullish in Times Like These
      Globalization was a nice trade: Japan private savings funded China production, sustained in commodities from developing economies for US/EU final consumption, with profits and debt payments expected to
      return to Japanese exporters, banks and government bonds, with all enjoying a piece in the middle. Is sad that investment banks were greedy enough to pollute all the chain selling low quality debts as AAA assets.
      Now nobody trust in anyone and is a sort of ice age for global trade.

      The news on closing the exchanges may create a massive selloff, Silvio Inc. must be shorting a lot of things for sure, and I will use this voters or PPT spring to short some more. Is a baaad idea, specially if they dont have an agreed plan. I been reading some proposals, like a 20% devaluation of the US$ in exchange of a chunk of Asia saving to cover the hole, and continue the nice trade. The club of the 20s has the last word, in the mean time mermaids can be dangerous: China is screwed with a zombie trading partner, same as Asean in 1998 they are collapsing, the difference is this time they can make some voodoo tricks
      with their 2 trillions, (like a Euro revival for example).

      Treasury gringos may be happy to dump their debt somewhere and go shopping again, but Ben holds only 25% of US treasuries now, a healthy move that is telling to me has no problem with the mentioned devaluation as an option to the IMF medicine of fiscal responsibility. But also means that China will not colect more green barbage this time (or will charge a reasonable yield to do it). So make your own bet: who will get a lifejacket in the sinking globalized Titanic? Not the countries outside of the 20s club for sure: there will be the next massacre and probably some compassive Japanese PM will fund the IMF with lots of highly indebted yens to praying the Washington Concensus once more.

      This deal really sucks! They will bailout themselves once more at GS style...




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    • Tue Nov 4th 12:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Reverse Carry Trade Borrowing Proves Deadly
      well, at least 75% of the risk, and I share that is not good idea to get foreign funds without protection (currency optios for example). Of course the risk insurance make the deal less appealing...
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 12:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Reverse Carry Trade Borrowing Proves Deadly
      Dear Edward, I guess you have some confussion about reverse financial speculations. The US Federal Reserve has been moving away from the risky USTB (US treasury bonds) in great style with the currency swap operations, and now only ¼ of US Fed holdings are in US government debt. A brilliant US move as foreign demand for US treasury bonds (USTB) has declined in the last six months, so all the risk of the US fiscal and monetary imbalance of the US dollar has been transferred to non US
      central banks, banks and other bond holders from Brazil to Korea, including Singapore.

      In Europe the governments are rescuing the money of deposits in failed banks, with large injections of equity into their financial systems. To finance these rescues, the governments are selling bonds to their local central banks that are under the control of the European Central Bank, which creates money to buy those bonds, so large deficits are being built. As the credit intermediation activity is paralyzed by the lack of trust between the banks, the increase in the ECB monetary base by the new debt emissions has not been inflationary (and gold prices noted that).

      The most competitive financial systems of Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, probably will start to create credit soon as the
      rates are returning to normal, maybe this week. Less competitive and “highly leveraged” consumers and construction firms
      in Spain, Portugal, Greece will need to be refinanced.

      The EU common monetary policy will face a hard option soon: to print more euros to buy all the EU bonds (inflation) or to establish
      some discipline (deep recessions for some members and shallow recessions for others ). An unavoidable decision for the ECB that
      probably will be taken in the next days. If the criteria is to minimize the European inflation I don’t see any option but a mayor adjustment
      in the member countries with more risky government bonds.

      At the end of the day, the FED transformed a monetary problem in a fiscal restriction, and the same can be in the US, any public spending initiative will be hardly funded, not a good time for love promises.

      have a nice day...
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 12:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bye-Bye Dividends
      easy money times are over guys...
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 09:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Next Crisis Is on the Horizon
      Sunshine is a good lawyer, the problem is with his training in economics:
      he didnt go the basic idea of the currency swap operations...a fine option
      to sterilization when other central banks wants your bad debt.

      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 06:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Airline Index and GDP: What's the Relationship?
      great job, probably credit availability and exchange rates may improve your weak adjusted R2 instead of GDP, we really want to see more analysis on this...
      View article »
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